Future Studies* and Women's Visions
by Ivana Milojević
[Entry by Ivana Milojević,
2000, Routledge International Encyclopedia of Women: Global Women’s
Issues and Knowledge, pp.894-895]
imilojev@usc.edu.au;
info@metafuture.org
Future studies – the systematic
study of the preferred, possible and probable versions of the future
– is a relatively new field. In its modern history it has moved from
being focused on utopianism to making empirical predictions.
Currently, futures studies in government and business is dominated by
strategic planning, technology impact assessment and risk analysis. In
academia, following the social sciences in general, futures studies
has taken a more critical perspective, focused less on what the future
will be like, or even on the range of alternative futures, to what is
missing in particular visions of the future. The quest for a more
balanced study of the future is being driven by futurists who are far
less committed to corporatist and scientific interests and far more
sympathetic to multicultural concerns as to who is likely to be
excluded if a certain future comes about. There is thus a slow but
significant shift toward future studies as a management tool to
control the future to future studies as a framework for social
emancipation.
Still, future studies remains
largely male dominated in terms of practitioners and in terms of the
epistemological assumptions that underlie theory, methodology and
content. Women remain excluded from both the history and the future of
the future. At the same time, the evidence of women's one-time
importance when it comes to understanding and creating the future can
be easily found in the realm of old and long memories, for example, as
expressed in Slav, Greek, Roman, Nordic, Saxon and Indian mythology.
In most archaic traditions, one of the important functions of a
goddess was the deciding men's fates. In Slav tradition, sudjenice are
three women in charge of deciding everyone's personal destiny. One of
the rare deities, and possibly the only deity, specifically in charge
of the future was in fact not a male deity but a female deity, Skuld,
one of the Norns from the Nordic tradition.
Even during the times when
patriarchy was at its peak, there were always individual women who
challenged prescribed gender relationships and gender roles. But in
most societies, men have been in charge of controlling the public
future and women have had little say about it. Women's encounter with
the future was confined to better care for future generations and
present households.
Elise Boulding, a peace theorist
and futurists, explains this ambiguity – that is, women
simultaneously being and not being "in charge" of the
future. According to Boulding, one important historical role of women
was as conservers of resources and as nurturers to fend off "the
effects of change as much as possible in order to preserve a space of
tranquility for those in their care". At the same time,
"every woman with responsibility for a household is a practicing
futurist," and women have always been the "womb of the
future in every society" (Boulding, 1983: 9).
The appearance of the feminist
movement was crucial in redefining what issues are
"important" and "global". The feminist dictum that
the personal is political gave women long needed legitimization to
bring what they considered extremely important to the discussion about
the creation of the future. The old and traditional women's activities
directed towards influencing the future (for example, through the
roles of witches or fates), which were primarily local, personal,
family- and community-oriented, got legitimization to be brought to
the societal level. Even more important, the legitimization of
"women's issues" has created the possibility for many women
futurists to write about both local and (redefined) global directions
for the future.
Many women futurists have
envisioned radically different future societies and suggested feminist
alternatives to patriarchy. As a movement for social change, feminism
is concerned with offering alternative visions of the future. Women
futurists concentrate particularly on the study of the future in order
to both redefine the present and articulate an alternative vision.
Women's Visions
Women's visions of the future are
usually somewhat different from those of men. While both genders are
concerned with the betterment of humankind in the future, most men
tend to concentrate on "grand" historical analyses and
issues, concentrating especially on realist discussions of emerging
political powers as well as on new technologies. The predominance of
power-oriented forecasting is evidenced by the focus on
nation-oriented “Year 2000” or “Year 2020” studies (strategic
in orientation) and the predominance of technological forecasting is
evident in the images of the future that are circulated - for example,
production of babies in factories and other types of mediation of
human relationships through genetic and other new technologies. The
methodologies used still rely heavily on "expert" opinion
and on development of powerful mathematics "formulas" to
forecast and develop accurate trend analysis. Most women futurists do
not reject new technologies, nor do they refuse to acknowledge the
obvious impact of technology on the lives of present and future
generations. But the focus is often rather on human relationships and
is more inclusive of the perspective of the powerless.
In terms of methodology, trend
analysis is not a preferred method of future studies, as many trends
are quite discouraging for the future of women or the speed of change
is extremely slow. While this method is useful in revealing the likely
future if current trends do not change, it offers no alternatives. On
the other hand, methods such as visioning, in which preferred futures
are articulated, and backcasting, in which the preferable future is
developed and then the path toward it is “remembered”, are
more relevant for women, and other similarly disadvantaged members of
(global) society.
Visions of future societies are
developed everywhere, but those developed in the West are the best
known and most influential. Examples include the "win-win
world" in which the escape route from the prison of gender as
well as economism is through the path of cooperation, community and
caring (Hazel Henderson 1996); the "gentle (androgynous)
society" (Boulding 1977); and the "partnership society (gylany)”
(Eisler, 1996). In South Asia, Nandini Joshi envisions the future of
the world community "not in the huge, crowded, cumbersome,
crime-threatened cities, overridden with unemployment and
inflation" but in "lustrous, flourishing, free villages
overflowing with useful goods, professions, intelligence and
arts" (Joshi, 1992, 935). Many other women as well imagine
preferable futures, for example, through feminist fiction and through
global grassroots movements. These preferable futures are usually
along the lines of decentralized, non-hierarchical, ecologically and
economically sustainable societies where communal life, family life,
parenting and education are highly valued, institutions are
human-scaled and diversity is celebrated.
Futurists also develop scenarios
for the future. Scenarios are useful in that they can empower
individuals and communities, as a range of preferable futures can be
chosen and actions developed in order to achieve them. They are also
important because they articulate futures that can help women develop
strategies to try to avoid certain futures or at least diminish their
impact. Scenarios also distance us from the present, creating
alternative futures that contest traditional gender roles.
Senarios for women's futures
usually include (1) continued female-male polarity (in the form of
male backlash, continued growth/patriarchy, or status quo) (2)
(lesbian) separatism and (3) partnership or a golden age of equality
(imagined in the form of unisex androgyny or in the form of multiple
gender diversities). In the "continued female-male polarity"
scenario, gender is fixed and there is little escape from socially
constructed gender roles. Societies either stay the same, with
patriarchy changing only form and not substance; or the patriarchy
increases, either through slow growth or dramatically in the form of
male backlash against recent women's gains in the society. Women's
separatism is one response to such futures, as women form women only
groupings. The "partnership” scenario imagines societies where
there is equal cooperation of genders, where women increasingly adopt
virtues traditionally seen as masculine and vice versa, or where
gender becomes even more fluid and essentialist categories such as
"man" or "woman" abandoned altogether.
No matter which scenario dominates,
it is imperative that women continue to address the future in public,
private, and epistemological spaces.
References and Further Reading
Aburdene, Patricia and Naisbitt,
John. 1992. Megatrends for women, New York: Villard Books.
Boulding Elise. 1977. The
underside of history: A view of women through time, Boulder, Col.:
Westview.
Boulding Elise. 1983.Women's
visions of the future, in Eleonora Masini, ed., Visions of
desirable societies, Pergamon,
Eisler Riane. 1987. The chalice
and the blade: Our history, our future, San Francisco:
HarperCollins.
Eisler Riane. 1996. Sacred
pleasure, San Francisco: HarperCollins.
Gender and change. 1989.
Futures 21(1).
Henderson, Hazel. 1996..Building
a win-win world: Life beyond global economic warfare. San
Francisco: Berret-Koehler.
Jones, Christopher. 1996. Women of
the future: Alternative scenarios. Futurist 30 (3: May-June).
Joshi, Nandini. 1992. Women can
change the future. Futures (9: November)
Special report on women's preferred
futures, Futurist. 1997. (3: May-June).
Women and the future. 1994. The
Manoa Journal of Fried and Half-Fried Ideas, Hawaii Research
Center for Futures Studies. Honolulu: University of Hawaii.
McCorduck, Pamela and Ramsey,
Nancy. 1996. The futures of women: Scenarios for the 21st
century, New York: Warner.
Milojević, Ivana. Feminising
futures studies. 1999. In Ziauddin Sardar, ed., Rescuing all our
futures: The future of futures studies. Twickenham,U.K.:
Adamantine.
* NB: While the original text
written by Ivana Milojević used the term ‘futures
studies’ this was changed by the editors of the Encyclopedia to ‘future
studies’
