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Future literacy workshop Sohail leads the way (Tamkang News in Chinese)

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Dr. Sohar, one of the top 2% scientists in the world. (Photography/Chen Youjing)

Dr. Sohail, one of the top 2% scientists in the world. (Photography/Chen Youjing)

The School of Education held two “Future Literacy Workshops” in ED601 at noon on March 5th and 7th, led by visiting research scholar Dr. Sohail Inayatullah, including academic About 70 people including Xu Huihuang, vice president and director of the Center for Sustainable Development and Social Innovation, and other members of the Futureization Committee, as well as teachers and students from the School of Education and the Seeds of Exploring Sustainability participated. Xu Huihuang delivered a speech at the workshop and expressed the hope that through Sohail’s leadership and application of tools and methods, we can achieve our expected future goals.

Sohail, one of the top 2% of scientists in the world, discussed “Futures” with teachers during the two-day workshop. He tells teachers that futuristic research is better than a crystal ball. “Because the crystal ball is asking others to tell you what the future is, and future research is you making a crystal ball.” He tried to ask questions from different angles to guide the discussion among members. He said: “There is no right answer. But this will It starts to put you in a mindset of future literacy and futurist thinking.”

In addition to guiding teachers to understand future research methods, he further mentioned “using the future” to create a vision of the future, “making the future compelling and making it different.” He cited the example of Singapore’s transportation department cooperating to transform Changi Airport. In order to defeat Dubai Airport, they held a workshop with Suhail and discussed the idea of ​​”3D printing avionics equipment” to turn Changi into the world’s first learning center airport in 2030, and immediately Put it into practice. He used this example to illustrate that futurists try to find out what the “next” is and help change strategies to make the vision a reality. “We are not only studying futurology, but we are also doing our best to change the future.”

In addition to case sharing, the second workshop was also conducted with Causal Layered Analysis (CLA). Taking the theme of future thinking, Sohail emphasized that futures studies are the core of the development of education departments in various countries. He cited the Norwegian Ministry of Education as an example, which through cultivating personal achievements, collaboration, emergency response and ministry practice, Expanding the future of education.

When talking about the dilemma of future development, Sohail took Australia’s Roma countryside as an example to explore how humans respond when faced with threats. In addition to promoting industrial alliances and developing precision farming, Sohail can also use technology to coexist with threats. . He said that the ability to cope with and perform in the future is a powerful factor in becoming a leader in the industry. In terms of learning, he believes that interdisciplinary thinking, openness to different solutions, and positive thinking about the future are the only ways to cultivate future literacy, and can also increase work efficiency and life satisfaction.

Regarding the future university model, Sohail invited distinguished guests and students to form a workshop to talk about his future imagination of Tamkang University, such as no age limit for students, uberlization of the campus, and no traditional classrooms. E-campus. He asked the participants to deeply understand the concepts and practices of future education through brainstorming, and gradually achieve: “Make learning something that makes you happy from the bottom of your heart.”

Yip Rong, a Master of Operations and Management who participated in the workshop, said that he has further focused on the concept of futurism. He supports sustainable education and technological change, and hopes: “Starting from the discipline of future studies, I hope that there will be new technologies and new technologies in the future.” Education comes in the form.”

Report By: Lai Yingxiu and Chen Yun Tamsui Campus Report

Published By: Tamkang Times (in Chinese)

Click here to read the article in original in Chinese.

Minimising Conflicts Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020).

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By Ivana Milojević

First published 11 May 2020, Journal of Futures Studies.

“The challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic is that …[a]t times such as these, our stress levels become higher and our difficult emotions seem to surface more readily. This not only leads to more conflicts, it leads to more unresolved conflicts.”[i]

“As a rise in family violence due to the coronavirus crisis is set to strain an already critically overstretched social support system, some abusers are reportedly using COVID-19 as a psychological weapon.”[ii]

“We could be facing multiple famines of biblical proportions within a short few months … the world is not only facing “a global health pandemic but also a global humanitarian catastrophe.”[iii]

“Covid-19 has brought wealthy nations to their knees. What will happen when the virus breaks out in a war zone?[iv] … the impact [may]be unpredictable and potentially catastrophic.[v]

“As the coronavirus sweeps the world, it hits the poor much harder than the better off. One consequence will be social unrest, even revolutions.”[vi]

“Covid-19 is fuelling conflict: New ways will be needed to make peace.”[vii]

The headlines above suggest the critical importance of enhancing our conflict resolution capacities. As COVID-19 races around the world, we can anticipate further increases in conflicts. Indeed, psychologists and humanitarian organizations (such as WHO, the Red Cross, Beyond Blue) have already posted some helpful guidelines as to how to defuse intra- and inter-personal conflicts. Developing mental resilience along these recommendations is critical because it is our response to the pandemic rather than the virus itself that will cause conflicts. And while, at this stage, we cannot fully control the virus’s spread and its impact on the economy, there are still actions we can do to minimize conflict. Even in situations of protracted social conflict, the outbreak is opening up a variety of ‘new and unexpected scenarios’, making a whole range of strategies, impossible before the pandemic, possible today (Garrigues, 2020).

Exploring our options for the futures of conflict is linked to how and why conflicts arise in the first place. However, the causes and mechanisms of conflict differ. There are several specific areas over which conflicts tend to arise. They include: information, resources, relationships, structures, and values. Furthermore, there is intrapersonal/inner conflict. Negative economic, social, and health impacts of the 2020 pandemic are already expected to be huge.[viii][ix] Fuelling existing and emerging conflicts will only make matters worse. Epidemics and pandemics have historically been known to change the course of history. At times, the change was positive, for example: improvement in hygiene practices, redistribution of wealth,  improved individual and social relationships in the aftermath, and even “the end of chattel slavery” (Snowden, 2020) in some parts of the world. How damaged, or, alternatively, how well we come out of this one, will depend on many factors, including how we negotiate numerous conflicts ahead. Smart and workable strategies to minimise, manage and even transform the conflict for the better, will significantly influence our future lives and worlds.

INFORMATION

To start with, conflicts often arise in relation to insufficient information. Addressing conflicts about information is one of the easiest ways to prevent and ease the conflict. Policy makers and government agencies, reputable media, ethical individuals, organisations, and various experts all have a role to play in providing timely, accurate, and transparent information. This should help with finding the right balance between underestimating (‘I/we will certainly not get it’) and overestimating (‘we are all doomed’) the threat from the virus. Gathering facts and clarifying confusion makes a significant contribution to the easing of rising tensions – tensions that commonly bring fear, superstition, magical thinking, and conspiracy ideation into the open. This is always important, but it is especially critical nowadays (i.e. with the prevalence of ‘false/fake news’ and the ‘doubling-down’ of ideological positions), to rely on scientific, evidence-based and reputable sources of information. Governments, social media, and all of us can make a positive contribution in that regard. It can also be helpful to have a guiding metaphor or tagline to enable a focused strategy. For example, a helpful saying to address conflict related to insufficient or false information could be: ‘Accurate information, timely shared’ or ‘Information Hygiene’.

Brian Mcgowan, Unsplash

RESOURCES

Another common source of conflict is the scarcity of resources. We have seen ‘the battle over respirators’ increasingly becoming a source of international conflicts, corruption, and weakening previously friendly ties between nations (e.g. the US versus Germany or France and Germany versus Italy). At the community level, the police needed to intervene when ‘battles over toilet paper rolls’ in supermarkets manifested in physical violence.

Three key developments work in relation to conflicts over scarce resources. First, conflict decreases when the need for the resources dissipates, or individuals anticipate that there is no restriction, i.e. there are positive expectations of the future. This will likely happen if the need for respirators and other necessities – either due to virus containment or prevention/the invention of a cure or even fair rationing – diminishes. The race to find a workable vaccine and/or cure is already occurring and should be further encouraged and enabled. Fair rationing is currently ad-hoc, dependent on the goodwill of businesses and sporadic government measures. These measures should be made systemic, ongoing, and predictable. Uncertainty feeds into the existing and creates new conflicts. As much as possible, uncertainty should be reduced.

Another common strategy is to provide more of the resources that are currently scarce. In the context of the Covid-19 pandemic that means producing more respirators and other necessities (i.e. products needed for hygiene and protection such as disinfectants, masks, and so on). As is already happening in some places (i.e. distillers producing hand sanitizers or clothing factories producing face masks) this means reevaluating current production priorities and/or repurposing existing production capacities. Local/national/global bodies coordinating such efforts could become invaluable.

The third strategy focuses on the fair sharing and allocation of resources. We usually deal with the lack of resources better than we do with uncertainty or (real or perceived) injustice in how resources are distributed. Clear and fair rules based on community needs and legal and ethical frameworks would go a long way in making this type of conflict dissipate. These rules and strategies should focus on people’s needs rather than wants; i.e. sharing what is needed, as opposed to free-market principles that enable panic buying.

A helpful guiding metaphor or saying for addressing conflicts related to the scarcity of resources could be: ‘There is enough for all – solidarity’ or ‘equitable/fair sharing’.

Mick Haupt, Unsplash

RELATIONSHIPS

Yet another common source of conflict is over relationships. We are already witnessing considerable damage done to interpersonal relationships because of people’s tendency to overreact and/or become more selfish when fear and panic strike. Also dangerous is the ‘blame game’ – accusations as to who has or may contract the virus from whom, who is (ir)responsible and who is excessively cautious/‘over the top’, who has done something similarly irresponsible in the past, and so on. These tensions will introduce some destructive elements to the existing differences between people and communities which would otherwise not cause many problems. Alternatively, if problems do arise due to these differences, they would (in calmer times) find relatively easy solutions. So what we all need to watch for is the possibility of the breakdown of personal relationships, and do our best to avoid stereotyping and scapegoating – both are very common practices amongst humans, especially during times of stress. The best antidote here is to not ‘other’ individuals and communities, but to turn our thinking around – from judgment and exclusionary/excessive self-focus to a compassionate view and concern for others. That is, other people can be seen as very similar to me/us, with the same fears, concerns and needs. This mental practice helps avoid ‘the worse of humanity’ which often manifests during times of conflict.

A helpful guiding metaphor for addressing conflicts related to relationships could be: ‘Everyone is me’ or ‘We are all in this together’.

Filip Filkovic-philatz, Unsplash

STRUCTURE

Conflicts about structure are related to access to power or resources, as well as to different amounts of respect and decision-making authority that are given to groups and individuals (Kraybill, 2001). We have created a very unequal world, where structural injustices determine that the well-being and even lives of certain groups of people are endangered. During crisis situations, the system ensures that those ‘on the top’ have higher chances of survival and a higher quality of life. Those at ‘the bottom’ face the opposite. For example, all over the world, the system of patriarchy ensures that women and children in situations of domestic violence will suffer violent conflict and abuse even more during the Covid-19 pandemic. Indeed, reports about the increased rate of domestic violence during lockdowns and other restrictive measures are multiplying (e.g. OHCHR, Graham-Harrison et al. 2020, Murray & Young, 2020, Kelly, 2020). As economically difficult and stressful situations are known to increase this type of violence, systemic countermeasures are absolutely necessary. Other protective measures are also needed for millions of people who are currently losing their jobs and incomes, those already unemployed and homeless, refugees and low-income foreign workers. Structural measures are needed to address the possibility of being evicted, deported or not being able to afford the basics – for this reason welfare payments, universal basic income or aid need to be enhanced. If these measures are not put in place, we could expect a rise in violent conflict, criminality and the number of preventable deaths. Ideally, the Covid-19 pandemic can provide an opportunity to address the world’s unequal systems and structures and create more equitable and fair societies. It is also an opportunity to provide much-needed support to the struggling health sector and health workers. In place of the ‘survival of the fittest’ and ‘dog eats dog’ the guiding metaphor could be ‘global fairness’, ‘equitable societies – better for all’ or ‘flattening the inequity curve’.

Rusty Gouveia, Pixabay

VALUES

Conflicts over relationships and structure can be difficult to resolve due to our common insular and myopic views based on short-term thinking. Even harder is resolving conflicts involving values. For example, the rush to create a workable vaccine may be motivated by values which focus on profit or national interest (such as the US president’s offer to purchase exclusive access to coronavirus vaccine being developed by a German company) versus those that focus on altruism and the long-term greater good. Yet another value position is based on certain religious beliefs (‘God decides what happens’) versus values based on rational/secular beliefs (‘Humans are in charge’). Values and beliefs are commonly formed based on certain previous life experiences or ideological and faith positions. We can expect a shift in personal values (i.e. ‘It is important to shake peoples’ hands when we first meet them’ towards ‘social-distancing’) based on new experiences, whereas others might solidify even further (i.e. various faith positions). For example, the anti-vaxxer position is unlikely to shift, even if a reliable vaccine becomes available and the illness caused by the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) becomes more visible in their community. Discourses about ‘Big Pharma’, ‘natural’ immunity and the ‘benefits’ of the virus eliminating the old or sick members of the community will most likely continue acting as a cognitive ‘shield’ that prevents personal values and beliefs from being undermined by external reality. The best strategy so far invented here is to allocate a separate sphere of influence for each set of values – rational/secular/evidence-based/scientific to the realm of the state and government and policy-making vis-à-vis religious beliefs to the realm of the spiritual and psychological. Moreover, there will be an ongoing discussion in relation to privacy issues and individual freedom vis-à-vis public safety. Individualistic and liberal communities and societies will struggle more with the coming restrictions than collectivist and rules-based authoritarian societies. The helpful guiding metaphor will thus depend on the context: i.e. ‘In Government/Our Leaders (or Scientists and Health Workers) We Trust’ or ‘Community Mobilizes’.

Jordan Hopkins, Unsplash

INTRAPERSONAL

Certainly, the inner, intrapersonal conflict will also skyrocket. ‘Should I exercise in a closed area?’, ‘Should I go visit such and such?’, ‘Should I travel to XYZ?’, ‘How much food should I stock up on?’, ‘Do I have enough toilet paper?’, ‘How long will this last?’, ‘How will I make ends meet?, ‘Is XYZ financial decision smart or stupid?’, ‘What will happen to the others if I get sick’, ‘How will I cope if I get ill?’, etc. The main conflict will be between our ‘rational’ self and our ‘fearful/panicky’ one, as well as between our ‘inner extrovert’ and ‘inner introvert’. The best strategy so far invented in this regard is to practice ‘watching one’s own thoughts’ (i.e. mindfulness, cognitive behavioral therapy, critical thinking) and to attempt to distance ourselves a bit from them. Once we gain that small distance, we can then try to investigate what each sub-personality has to offer. Perhaps some sort of balance between rationality and fear should inform our actions? For example, we can take some precautions such as washing our hands and channel our fearful self (subpersonality) into vigilance over that specific set of actions related to personal hygiene. Another specific set of actions we can take based on our fearful self is to be vigilant about sources of information and double-check whether they are coming from reputable sources – information hygiene. On the other hand, our rational self (sub-personality) can assist us in preventing overreactions and making rash decisions based on emotions. Striking a balance between the two will, once again, go a long way in addressing our inner conflicts. Thus, one may choose to see themselves as assets rather than imaging these selves as opposing sides in a battlefield.

Another common inner conflict is between ‘control’ and ‘letting go’. Once again, balancing insights from these different types of mental processes is critical. The key is to direct time and energy towards things we can control, such as how to qualitatively organize one’s time during self-isolation or which recommendations to follow and to let go of things we cannot, such as other people’s behavior or other external factors.

Indeed, refocusing our attention is critical to minimizing personal anxiety and interpersonal conflict. So instead of overly focusing on ‘I do not want to die,’ ‘I do not want [somebody close to me]to die’, or ‘I will not be able to cope if I [or somebody close to me]get sick’ (thoughts possibly at the back of most people’s minds), the focus could be on ‘How can I help?’, ‘What is and is not in my sphere of influence?’, ‘How can I best ‘let go’ of things I cannot control?’, or ‘What is the wisest way for me to contribute?’. Psychologists commonly recommend strengthening self-care in times of crisis. This includes both behavioral (i.e. sufficient sleep, good food, some safe exercise, relaxation, etc.) and psychological responses (i.e. being aware of one’s own thinking and behavior and adjusting these patterns if needed). Spiritual and religious practices have been shown to be beneficial in crises as well (i.e. ‘Let go and let God’), providing they do not cause the erroneous application of ‘faith-based solutions’ in the material world, where fact-based solutions are necessary. The best way forward is: 1. Choosing the thoughts and actions that minimize the possibility of violence arising now and in the future, and 2. Using existing conflicts to create something new, a better future.

The guiding metaphors could be: ‘The Kindness (to oneself and others) Pandemic’ or ‘Self-Others care’.

Andre Ouellet, Unsplash

EMERGENCE: CREATING INNER AND OUTER BALANCE

Finally, conflict theorists also commonly mention that every conflict can become a golden opportunity to create something new. For example, perhaps we could use this time to pause and reevaluate some personal values and practices (i.e. from  ‘big life questions’ such as: ‘how should I live my life knowing that I can die unexpectedly and suddenly’, to smaller questions such as: ‘how should I organize my daily activities during this forced pause’, or, ‘how could I best be of service to others’)?

We can also inquire into solutions that are needed to improve existing social structures, systems and institutions. Perhaps the coronavirus and other environmental changes could help us rethink the human-nature relationship so that this relationship is also improved? Indeed, there is an opportunity to generate a strong global response to the climate crisis, and out of the “ashes of the corona crisis [create]something new” (Watts, 2020). Or, given the difficulties nations and states face to solve global problems, perhaps we could investigate what type of global and, alternatively, communal/regional/local institutions we should create or enhance?

We are already seeing efforts to coordinate global health efforts, even transform existing economic and social structures as well as the worldview behind them. For example, a joint statement of the G20 leaders framed the Covid-19 pandemic as a ‘powerful reminder of our inter-connectedness and vulnerabilities’ (G20, 2020). Because ‘the virus respects no borders’ they committed to ‘presenting a united front against this common threat’ (ibid.). Their call for action should be replicated as a springboard for a host of other problems – from climate change to global inequality – conflicts around Covid-19 thus truly becoming an opportunity to create something substantially better for the future. In their words, what is needed is ‘a transparent, robust, coordinated, large-scale and science-based global response in the spirit of solidarity’ (ibid.). Beyond dealing with this pandemic, there is much work left to be done. In addition to addressing pandemics, a global campaign for ‘a new just world economic system, where all nations work for the benefit of the other in a win-win fashion’ is also needed – ‘we need to change our outlook, or we [humans]will perish’ (Askary, 2020). Indeed, countless individuals and organizations have already been working on workable solutions towards such a transition for decades.

And yet, we do live in an imbalanced nation-based geopolitical system. We are in the middle of numerous conflicts, inner and outer. Some entrenched values and worldviews are behind structures and systems that reward inequity and injustice. Alternatives are all around us, though they remain marginalized. Balancing acts are never easy. Yet, depending on how skilled we are or become in the process of minimizing versus enhancing thoughts and behavior that give rise to conflict, we can influence the development of more or less peaceful futures. Indeed, with each and every action we take these days, we already do so. Hope remains that we can all use this illness as a way to make ourselves, others, and the planet healthier. The new guiding metaphor could be: ‘A different, better world and the best possible selves are possible’.

Summary Table

Source and Type of Conflict: Makes it worse Makes it better
Information Inability to discriminate between false and real information Relying on scientific, evidence-based and reputable sources of information
Resources Uncertainty and unfairness of allocation Clear and fair rules based on community needs
Relationships
 Blaming, scapegoating, stereotyping Compassion and concern towards others
Structure Measures that help the more powerful Measures that help the most vulnerable
Values Insularity, rigidity Dialogue, openness
Intrapersonal Focusing on thoughts and actions that enhance fear, create controlling behavior and lead to being overwhelmed Awareness, self-other care, balancing sub-personalities, gratitude, surrender to what’s outside of one’s control
Source and Type of Conflict: Detrimental guiding metaphor Helpful guiding metaphor
Information I see, I share Accurate information, timely shared; Information hygiene
Resources Me/We first; First come, first served There is (will be) enough for all; Solidarity and fairness
Relationships ‘They’ are causing the pandemic We are all in this together
Structure Survival of the fittest Flattening the inequity curve
Values Natural immunity; We/humans are powerless In government/our leaders/scientists/ health workers we trust; Community mobilizes
Intrapersonal The sky is falling Kindness pandemic

Table by: Ivana Milojević, Metafuture, www.metafuture.org

About the Author

Dr. Ivana Milojević is a researcher, writer and educator with a trans-disciplinary professional background in sociology, education, gender, peace and futures studies and Director of Metafuture. She has held professorships at several universities and is currently focused on conducting research, delivering speeches and facilitating workshops for governmental and academic institutions, international associations, and non-governmental organizations. Dr. Milojević can be contacted at ivana@metafuture.org

The author would like to thank Charmaine Sevil for her creativity on the images in this article.  Charmaine Sevil is a futures designer and her website is www.sevilco.com.au

References:

[i] https://www.relationshipswa.org.au/news-events/current-news-and-events/2020/april/how-to-manage-relationship-tensions-during-covid-1

[ii] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-29/coronavirus-family-violence-surge-in-victoria/12098546

[iii] https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1062272

[iv] https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/coronavirus-conflict-zones-fight-has-hardly-begun

[v] https://devpolicy.org/peace-and-the-pandemic-the-impact-of-covid-19-on-conflict-in-asia-20200414/

[vi] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-11/coronavirus-this-pandemic-will-lead-to-social-revolutions

[vii] https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/covid-19-is-fuelling-conflict-new-ways-will-be-needed-to-make-peace

[viii] https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2020-03-19/real-pandemic-danger-social-collapse

[ix] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17167882; https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/646195/EPRS_BRI(2020)646195_EN.pdf

From Idea to Reality: Universal Basic Income in Australia by 2030 (2020)

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Journal of Futures Studies, March 2020, 24(3): 97–104

Zara Durnan, Formerly of Jacobs, ‘Corunna’, Deniliquin, NSW 2710, Australia

Sohail Inayatullah, Unesco Chair in Futures Studies; USIM, Malaysia; Tamkang University, Taiwan; University of the Sunshine Coast, Australia

* Web Text version of each JFS paper here is for easy reading purpose only, for the valid and published context of each article, please refer to the PDF version. 

Keywords: Universal Basic Income, Automation, Causal Layered Analysis, Scenarios

This essay explores universal basic income in Australia. It uses causal layered analysis and scenarios to deepen and broaden the debate.

From Idea to Reality

The idea of the universal basic income (UBI) is gaining momentum in popular and political discourse, as it migrates from fanciful theory to a feasible welfare alternative in the face of a changing global labour market and rapid advances in artificial intelligence and automation.

A recent World Development Report “asserts that 68.9% of jobs in India are at high risk – and that number remains at 42.6% even if adjusted for a lag in technology adoption.” (Verick, 2017). In the United States, economists Carl Frey and Michael Osborne concluded 47% of jobs are at high risk of automation. The International Labour Organization estimates that 137 million workers or 56% of the salaried workforce from Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam are at great risk of losing employment in the next twenty years (Aravindan & Wong, 2016).

While retraining is the normal policy prescription, the scale of automation suggests retraining is unlikely to be enough. Automation strikes at the core of the capitalist economy, with the notion of work itself potentially under threat. Universal basic income creates a base from which other alternatives can spring forth leading to enhanced entrepreneurship, innovation, social stability, and cooperatives, for example. Of course, in Western history, debates on universal basic income go back centuries, with many considering Johannes Vives (pp. 1492-1540) the founder of the idea even though he resisted a preventive mode of economy, that is, the notion of providing income before the need arose (Basic Income Earth Network, n.d.).

Earlier, Bertrand Russell (1872-1970) argued that a new global economic model was required. He wrote: “Anarchism has the advantage as regards liberty, Socialism as regards the inducement to work. Can we not find a method of combining these two advantages? It seems to me that we can. […] Stated in more familiar terms, the plan we are advocating amounts essentially to this: that a certain small income, sufficient for necessaries, should be secured to all, whether they work or not, and that a larger income – as much larger as might be warranted by the total amount of commodities produced – should be given to those who are willing to engage in some work which the community recognizes as useful… When education is finished, no one should be compelled to work, and those who choose not to work should receive a bare livelihood and be left completely free.” (Russell, 1918) (Basic Income Earth Network, n.d.).

In the Asian context, philosopher P.R. Sarkar (1921-1990) argued – through his third way model, Prout (the progressive utilization theory) – that intellectual and spiritual progress was only possible if the basic needs of all humans (housing, education, clothes, food, and health) were met (Sarkar, 2018). Along with a minimum base there is to be a maximum ceiling that continuously moved as more wealth was created through spiritual and technological innovation. While in his preferred articulation this is accomplished to increasing worker purchasing power, full employment is increasingly becoming a challenge.

More recently, in ”1984, a group of researchers and trade unionists close to the University of Louvain (Belgium) published a provocative UBI scenario.” (Basic Income Earth Network, n.d.) which led to a gathering of UBI supporters.

But while many have imagined a UBI, concrete trials have been recent.

In 2017 – 2018, Finland became the first European country to trial the application of a UBI – a guaranteed and unconditional payment made to all adult citizens to allow them to meet their basic needs, which is not activity or means tested – with unemployed Finns receiving a guaranteed payment per month for two years, paid even if they find work during that period (The Independent, 2017). The nation has decided it not to continue the trial with the evaluation suggesting that participants were happier – less stressed – but jobs did not result. (BBC, 2019).

Since 2017, two cities in Ontario, Canada have been trialing basic income. One group receives a basic income and another does not. Barcelona has also has been trialing UBI since October 2017. Again one group of a 1000 receives income and the second does not. Scotland will provide 250,000 pounds for a trial as well (Reynolds, Matt, 2018). American presidential candidate Andrew Yang has called for a UBI of 1000 US$ for each American citizen (Darrough, 2019).

Along with political leaders experimenting, corporate thought leaders such as Elon Musk (Weller, 2017), Richard Branson (Chapman, 2017) and Mark Zuckerberg – have also stepped in suggesting that UBI may be an idea whose time has come. In May 2017, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg called on the need to consider universal basic income in America during his Harvard Commencement Speech (Haselton, 2017). ‘Every generation expands its definition of equality. Now it’s time for our generation to define a new social contract,’ Zuckerberg said. ‘We should have a society that measures progress not by economic metrics like GDP but by how many of us have a role we find meaningful. We should explore ideas like universal basic income to make sure everyone has a cushion to try new ideas.’

Of course, others argue that this must be more than about income, in fact, we need a system of universal basic assets. This would reduce inequity (Fosco, 2018).

Why the Interest?

While universal basic assets is a novel, UBI is not a new idea as argued above. For decades, if not hundreds of years, it has been promulgated by various economists and politicians. Yet it has experienced a fit of renewed interest in recent years. Along with experiments in the wealthier regions of the planet s mall scale schemes have been introduced in developing nations such as Kenya and India (The Economist, 2017), and a UBI trial is being considered in Uganda (McFarland, 2016). Namibia has seen its basic income program reduce poverty by 18%, average income beyond UBI increase by 29%, and malnourishment drop by 32% (Kingma, n.d.). The idea has also been explored in Australia over the years, including in a research paper published by the Australian Government’s Parliamentary Library in late 2016.

UBI’s re-emergence on the policy agenda is driven by growing concern about permanent mass job loss as a result of automation and technological change. Stemming from the Global Financial Crisis, the ‘growing polarization of labour-market opportunities between high- and low-skill jobs, … stagnating incomes for a large proportion of households, and income inequality’ (Manyika, 2017) is leading to a loss of confidence in the future labour-market’s ability to generate enough jobs to employ the majority.

With unemployment likely built into the future, alternatives are required. And, it is not just automation but the rising peer to peer economy which can create unemployment, as we are witnessing the taxi, hotel, and now even the sex industry (Fleming, 2019).

While it can be argued that the new technologies will create new types of jobs; for example, as Leah Zahidi (2019) playfully suggests: recreationists (using genomics, 4d printing, plus AI to create species gone extinct) or Reality Rehabilitators (bringing back virtual AI addicts to the ”real world”) or sex therapists focused on robotic sex for those addicted to sex with robots…or, as likely is that because of dramatic developments in Artifical intelligence ie the fourth industrial revolution, work as we know it will disappear since humanity will live in abundance. Blue and white collar jobs will disappear.

Indeed, Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney has warned “up to 15 million of the current jobs in Britain – almost half of the 31.8 million workforce – could be replaced by robots over the coming years… entire pro- fessions such as accounting would likely disappear (Duncan, 2016). And going further, Ruchir Sharma, chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, argues that” before long economists [will]be worrying about a global shortage of robots” (Sharma, 2016). In Australia, The Committee for Economic Development in Australia considers 60% of all jobs in rural and regional Australia are at risk by 2030 (Tuffley, 2015).

Does the Idea Have Merit?

A groundswell of advocates contend UBI is a viable policy response to the future world of work, providing a foundation to smooth working-life transitions in a gig economy (where there is a great degree of freedom to choose project work but little financial or legal support if gigs or health fails), foster creativity and innovation (Painter & Thoung, 2015), and provide an efficient alternative to labour-based, complex welfare systems that will become untenable as the labour market contracts.

Opposition to UBI contends it is a ‘dangerous idea’ (Foster, 2016), and typically centres on the high cost and economic impact of a UBI scheme, scepticism that technological change will result in the permanent, pervasive depression of the labour market, and anxiety that a UBI would be politically and economically unsustainable (Mather, 2017), particularly in a capitalist society (Foster, 2016).

The changing nature of work, increasing disparity in wealth distribution and rise of automation signals the advent of a different work and welfare environment in Australia. A UBI is unlikely to be a panacea for the future challenges of the labour market. However, if properly implemented, could a UBI be the foundation for a new social construct that preserves prosperity and equality?

What Could the Future of an Australian UBI Look Like?

Causal layered analysis (CLA) is used as a method in futures thinking to more effectively consider and understand potential futures particularly the underlying myths and metaphors that support policy and data (Inayatullah, 2015, p.2). A CLA considers four dimensions (the litany, the systemic, the worldview and the metaphor) and integrates these four levels of understanding to provide a coherent view of the future. Applying a CLA to the introduction of a UBI deepens the understanding of societal responses to develop future scenarios.

As part of an Melbourne Business School executive program at the University of Melbourne, a CLA was undertaken which contemplates a future Australia which experiences a net shift in the unemployment rate from ~6% to 30 – 40% as a result of automation, with the benefits of economic growth experienced almost exclusively by those with the highest income s rather than the community as a whole. The CLA was developed by the first author of this essay.

The CLA set out at Table 1 considered the introduction of a UBI in Australia from the perspectives of:

  • Conservative government and companies operating within the current capitalist construct. For them, the litany is that we live in a society of dole bludgers. If we trusted the invisible hand of the market, we could easily traverse the forthcoming technological disruptions. Government policy will likely skew the needed dislocations, picking certain industries over other. Let the market innovate.
  • A citizen who has the security of pre-existing financial wealth and/ or an occupation that has not, or is unlikely to be, mechanised or otherwise made redundant. For this group, UBI may be welcome to ensure their class safety, but the cost could be that they must work even harder. Their preferred story is that those who are being dislocated should work harder.
  • A citizen who does not have security outside the welfare net; that is, a citizen who does not have pre-existing financial security and/or is unable to find gainful employment (though they may be able and willing). For this group, new technologies will reaffirm the scales of injustice. A UBI is an excellent way forward. And
  • A ‘transformed’ perspective, which presents a worldview grounded in preserving Australia’s egalitarian precepts through the application of ‘contributory democracy’, where a UBI model is part of a system where citizens’ and corporations’ contribution to society is measured, and citizens who would otherwise be part of the labour force (but cannot gain employment) contribute to society by means other than private sector employment. In this future, we share the meal, small or large.

 

Table 1: Causal Layered Analysis – UBI in Australia by 2030

Perspective Conservative government/ corporations Secure citizen Insecure citizen TRANSFORMED
Litany (day-to-day future, current headlines of the way things are or should be) •   Society of dole bludgers•   Paying for UBI will cripple the economy

•   This is communism

 •     Your choices determine your future•     Anyone can change their stars

•     Why should I work hard to support them to sit around and do nothing

 •     Corporations took my job (automation)•     The system sets me up to fail – I cannot win in the current system

 

 •     We are all in this together•     We all win if one wins

 
System(social, economic, political causes of the issue) •   Welfare system designed around labour market (job hunting, pension schemes (unable to work due to age or disability etc.)•   Competition drives innovation •   Capitalism drives economic prosperity and societal advancement•   Hard work = reward

•   Monetary investment is my means to climb social rungs and secure my future

 •   Current welfare drives poverty line•   Assessment-based approach

•   Competition drives labour elimination

 

 •   Welfare system based on contribution to society•   ‘Contributory democracy’
Worldview(cognitive lenses used to understand and shape the world) •   Capitalism•   Government promotes business to support economic growth and national prosperity •   Agency / free will•   My talent and hard work drives my success

•   I look after my own patch of turf

•   Welfare fatigue

 •   The government should serve and protect its citizens•   I have no social mobility because the system defeats me •   Egalitarian Australia (preserve the Fair Go)•   Capitalism made fair

•   Robots don’t need to eat
Myths and metaphor (the narrative) “the invisible hand” works for all “Work harder” – millions on welfare depend on you’ “Scales of injustice” – poverty ascribed to the masses, wealth increasingly concentrated in the hands of a tiny minority’ “Share the meal”

 

A successful strategy to introduce UBI in Australia thus must address the different narratives – it would need to be a broad based as strategy could be thwarted by any party This is further explored in the integrated scenario in Table 2.

Potential Future Scenarios

Scenario planning unpacks potential futures and provides a breadth and depth of analysis to inform policy responses. While there are numerous scenario methods, we use Inayatullah’s integrated approach as it seeks to link the long term with the short term, the vision with current political reality (Inayatullah, 2015).

Building on the perspectives of the CLA, four potential future scenarios of an Australian UBI emerge (sum- marised in Table 2). These scenarios are imagined versions of the future; ‘unlike predictions or forecasts, sce- narios are stories about possible futures, about what could happen, not what will or should happen’ (Inayatullah, 2015, p.66). These were developed by the first author of this essay.

Table 2: Potential future scenarios – UBI in Australia by 2030 (Australian UBI by 2030)

Preferred (the desired future) Share the meal

 •     Harmonious, altruistic society

•     Fosters inclusion, drives innovation and improved environmental outcomes

 Disowned (the rejected/non-negotiable future)Communism-lite

•     Lack of work ethic

•     Global welfare mentality

•     Lack of social mobility and individual agency
Integrated (unifying the preferred and disowned futures)The new Fair Go for All

•     Contributory democracy

•     Shifting shared value ethos from capitalism to social development and equality

•     Reformed welfare system and tax system

•     Non-work contributions valued and measured

•     Bi-partisan support

•     Rise of cooperatives

 Outlier (surprise future based on disruption)Hunger Games

•     Work unattainable for the majority

•     Endemic poverty subsistence

•     Extreme wealth concentrated in a tiny minority

•     Societal breakdown

•     Civil war

•     Geopolitical shifts

Preferred scenario – Share the meal

The preferred scenario envisages a future where the construct of capitalism is redefined and the welfare and tax system is radically overhauled, to enable a more equitable redistribution of wealth for all. This scenario envisages that with this redistribution, all citizens will have the opportunity to experience Zuckerberg’s ‘cushion for new ideas’, driving innovation, peace, true environmental stewardship and altruistic behaviours.

This scenario would likely rely on the introduction of analogous tax and welfare systems on a global scale, so corporations and wealthy citizens could not simply debunk to a country with a more advantageous system that enables disproportionate wealth generation.

Disowned scenario – Communism-lite

The disowned future depicts ‘Communism-lite’, where a balance is unsuccessfully struck between the preserva- tion of capitalist enterprise and the emergence of a socialist state with a false economy based on 100% make-work employment.

This scenario envisages a future where Australia transitions to a pseudo- socialist state, to ensure the population is occupied and civil unrest or widespread poverty is avoided. In this scenario, the state falls prey to the pitfalls of past socialist enterprises.

Outlier scenario – Hunger Games

The outlier scenario considers societal breakdown and unrest as a result of entrenched, interminable inequality, culminating in a civil war or revolution with an uncertain outcome at its conclusion.

This scenario envisages a future where citizens have little agency or prospects, where wealth resides with increasingly powerful corporations that generate and control profit through automated processes and robot- performed functions. Those with jobs or assets (shares, property etc.) have security; the majority subsists on welfare or contract-based employment. Without reliable, paid work for the majority, poverty or subsistence becomes endemic. There is an aching gulf between the haves and have nots, with an apparent failure of wealth redistribution (through tax systems or welfare systems), leaving the populace little prospect of social mobility and the emergence of an entrenched class or caste system.

Integrated scenario – the new ‘Fair Go’

The integrated approach contemplates a new ‘Fair Go for all’, a future in which the best intentions of the preferred and disowned futures are applied to the practical realities and constraints of democratic capitalism to engineer a reimagined state of ‘contributory democracy’, where a UBI is introduced that re-orients individuals and entities (citizens, government and private enterprise) to measure and value their contribution to that society distinct from wealth creation.

This scenario envisages a modified UBI which is not unconditional but rather, is contingent on those who could work (but cannot secure work) delivering a social contribution of some kind. An approach like this could balance the preservation of capitalism (and the agency, innovation and social mobility it enables) with a reformed welfare system that retains a measure of agency while redefining the dominant basic values that underpin Australia’s current society. It could reconcile the tension between those who work and those who don’t, by having those that do not work contributing to social progress in other ways. Redefining social constructs and values could help navigate a path to preserve Australia ‘s relatively flat class structure and its egalitarian traditions.

Here Be Dragons

On medieval maps, dragons or sea monsters represent uncharted areas or dangerous waters. Realising the inte- grated future described above would require a nuanced, comprehensive policy response to navigate a course that treads new ground, preserving the benefits of capitalism yet pursuing wealth redistribution and a progressive form of social contribution.

The introduction of a successful, sustainable UBI model would be dependent on its design, as well as the design of the wider policy landscape in which it operates. Sweeping change requires foresight and anticipation. In this case, futures thinking assists in shaping the desired future by forecasting socio-political change s and the necessary repositioning of societal value. It illustrates that effective UBI introduction would require policy intervention to cast wider than welfare, education, tax and banking structure reform; policy levers would need to go further, to support the evolution of the Australian value set from foundational capitalist principles to social contribution and betterment.

Would the Australian government be able to develop a UBI prior to the foreseen dramatic job losses likely to occur through automation and developments in the peer-to-peer economy? If the response to climate change is an indicator, then most likely Australia will lag far behind other regions. The fear of dragons will overwhelm the imperative to create and innovate.

References

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Basic Income Earth Network. (n.d.). History of basic income. Retrieved January 14, 2019, from https://basicincome.org/basic-income/history

BBC (2019, Feb 8). Finland basic income trial left people happier but jobless. Retrieved 18 December 2019 from BCC https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47169549

Chapman, B. (2017, August 25). Richard Branson backs universal basic income joining Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk. Retrieved 18 December 2019 from The Independent: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/richard-branson-universal-basic-income-mark-zuckerberg-elon-musk-virgin-ceo-a7911866.html

Darrough, C. (2019, December 12). Andrew yang belives in UBI. here’s what his plan would really do for America. Retrieved December 18, 2019. https://www.mic.com/p/andrew-yang-believes-in-ubi-heres-what-his-plan-would-really-do-for-america-19437397

Duncan, H. (2016, December 6). Robots to steal 15million of your jobs, says bank chief. Retrieved December 10, 2016, from Daily Mail Online: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4003756/Robots-steal-15m-jobs-says-bank-chief-Doom-laden-Carney-warns-middle-classes-hollowed-new-technology.html

Fleming, P. (2019, January 14). Sugar daddy capitalism: even the world’s oldest profession is being uberised. Retrieved18 December 2019 from The Conversation: https://theconversation.com/sugar-daddy-capitalism-even-the-worlds-oldest-profession-is-being-uberised-109426

Fosco, M. (2018, November 30). Universal Basic Assets:A Smarter Fix than Universal Basic Income. Retrieved18 December 2019 from OZY. https://www.ozy.com/fast-forward/universal-basic-assets-a-smarter-fix-than-universal-basic-income/90019/

Foster, G. (2016, December 27). Universal basic income: the dangerous idea of 2016. Retrieved from The Conversation: https://theconversation.com/universal-basic-income-the-dangerous-idea-of-2016-70395

Haselton, T. (2017, May 25). Mark Zuckerberg joins Silicon Valley bigwigs in calling for government to give everybody free money. Retrieved 18 December 2019 from CNBC: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/25/mark-zuckerberg-calls-for-universal-basic-income-at-harvard-speech.html

Inayatullah, S. (2015). What Works: case studies in the practice of foresight. Taipei: Tamkang University Press.

Kingma, L. (n.d.). Universal Basic Income: The Answer to Automation? Retrieved January 15, 2019, from Futurism: https://futurism.com/images/universal-basic-income-answer-automation

Mather, J. (2017, November 5). Universal basic income an ‘unbelievably bad idea’. Retrieved 18 December 2019 from Australian Financial Review: http://www.afr.com/technology/universal-basic-income-an-unbelievably-bad-idea-20171101-gzcsxn#ixzz51Yps7ks0

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Neither a Black Swan Nor a Zombie Apocalypse: The Futures of a World with the Covid-19 Coronavirus (2020)

Posted on by
JFS Blog, Perspectives,
By Peter Black, Sohail Inayatullah

Is this a Black Swan? 

Our colleague Louis Zheng from the Shanghai FuturistCircle suggested that no one had predicted COVID 19 Coronavirus. “Is it a black swan?” he asked.[1]

Image result for tamkang futures studies

www.jfsdigital.org. Accessed 17 March 2020.

Our response was that this is not a black swan, as a black swan event is defined as being unpredictable, a total surprise. The reason this coronavirus is not a black swan is that the emergence of another coronavirus was predicted by many working in the emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) field. Indeed, we argue that we need to be getting ready for the next “Corona”.

The predictability is on a number of fronts.

1. The increasing rate of emerging EIDs is well recorded in the scientific literature (Morse 1995).

2. Many agreed for some time that the most likely severe EIDs would be caused by single-stranded RNA viruses (as these have high rates of mutation) and would emerge from animals. This simply reflects the recognition that more than 70% of recent EID events have their origins in animals (they are zoonotic) with most originating principally from wildlife (Jones et al. 2008).

3. Coronaviruses were high on the list of likely candidates for causing an EID event. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) emerged in 2003, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in 2012 – both caused by novel coronaviruses (Fan et al. 2019).

4. Bats as a likely source of viruses causing EIDs have also been well recognized in the scientific literature (Olival et al. 2017).

5. Research on both SARS and zoonotic avian influenza identified infection spillover pathways that most often included ‘wet markets’ where live animals are frequently sold and slaughtered on site. In the case of zoonotic influenza, the spread of the virus to people was from poultry at live bird markets (i.e. wet market). For SARS, the initial spillover event occurred at a wet market containing wildlife when people were exposed to civets that were shedding the SARS coronavirus (Webster 2004). Although there has been work in trying to change wet markets (FAO 2015) and in some countries stop wet markets—especially where many species, including wildlife mix—this change has been difficult due to a range of social, economic and cultural factors. We anticipate in the short run these factors will reduce in importance, but insofar as “culture eats strategy for breakfast,” they are likely to return without global institutional and cultural shifts.

All the above was known before COVID 19, so people working in the EID space were not surprised. The exact timing of emergence was not predicted, but nonetheless, the emergence of a novel coronavirus associated with wet markets containing wildlife was not unexpected at all (Fan et al. 2019).

Foresight, of course, is not about exact timing – that is market investment and stock trading. This is about creating the capacity to anticipate tomorrow’s problems and act today. Thus, the seeds of the Corona, the weak signals, have been present for a decade.

Culture Eats Strategy For Breakfast

Why then with this information are we now in the middle of an epidemic? Colleagues in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) suggest that: Firstly, “it is related deeply to the Chinese eating culture – preference for fresh meat from animals butchered at the counter”. Secondly, the memories of food crises in China remain. Third, there continues to be a level of mistrust of the government. For example, “residents have little knowledge of the frozen meat-producing process due to the lack of information transparency, thus, some ignore the regulations of the live animal ban in the wet markets.” They are bounty hunters, focused on wealth creation, irrespective of the costs to the overall society.

Furthermore, many from rural areas live in the ancient episteme where the “liveness” of the animal leads to greater health as one is “eating” life. Thus, the initial lack of response speed can be explained not just by a culture where informing supervisors equates with a fear of losing one’s job – but because parts of China live in different times. An ancient worldview, a communist worldview, and now a globalist worldview. Certainly since the initial issue of transparency emerged, China’s response has been robust and dynamic. The speed of virus infection has been dramatically reduced, giving the rest of the world a chance to mitigate.

Social problems emerge, or are difficult to address, where there are varying perspectives – each often in tension with others. Interests and strategies are at locked horns or drawing the carriage in different directions.

This is illustrated in the Causal Layered Analysis (Inayatullah and Milojević, 2015) below. Six meta-perspectives are critical – the views from those who sell in wet markets; the views of those in the political bureaucracy (this helps explain the rise of COVID-19 in China early on in the outbreak and Iran, for example); the current strategy of slowing down the virus – the Medieval; the Pharma perspective; the Market; and of course, the Citizen.

Wet market Political bureaucracy Public health Pharma Economic Citizen
Litany Continued wet markets Information about disease not shared Slow down the virus so systems can survive Enlist medical and health systems to create the cure Economic indicators – recession on the way Fear and panic 
System Jobs in tension with the need to eliminate them.Outside of the law. Job – fear of reprisal from those above Quarantine,Social distancing,

Surveillance,

Lockdown,

Flatten the curve.

Use apps and Artificial Intelligence (AI)

 Find the vaccine.Vaccinate all.

Using new technologies to speed up solutions

 Profits and interconnected systems cause downward pressure.Uncertainty driving market volatility. Citizens looking for direction. Leaders uncertain of how to balance the economy and public health. 
Worldview Economic – wealth accumulation Political – authoritarian Medieval-Safety Pharmaceutical – plus AI plus to some extent public health Capitalist – markets Citizen prefer flatter systems, but search for expertise 
Myth/metaphor “Bounty hunters” 

“Show me the money”

 “The big man” “Breaking the chain of infection”“Slow down the fire” “Silver bullet” “Where to hide” – “opportunities everywhere” “Whom do I trust” 

Thus part of the challenge of a global response is that there are multiple worldviews operating, all with different interests.

While CLA helps us to understand the varying perspectives, scenarios help us address alternative trajectories.

What Then Are The Scenarios?

Based on the hundreds of articles, we see at least four possible futures. [2]

1. Zombie Apocalypse (CDC 2020). This future emerges because of the mutation of the virus plus xenophobia plus panic. Uncertainty leads to continued market crashes. Supply chains, tourism, travel, and conferences are all disrupted. A severe and long term recession, if not depression, results. Failure to act leads to a number of regime changes, as in Iran and the USA, to begin with. Wherever there are system stresses, they break. This is certainly how the future feels to many. The memory of earlier plagues remains at the inter-generational level. Fear and panic rule.

https://www.cdc.gov/cpr/zombie/00_images/header-index.jpg

Image from https://www.cdc.gov/cpr/zombie/index.htm

2. The Needed Pause. Efforts are made in most countries to ‘flatten the curve’ to help health systems cope. In the future, COVID-19 becomes just another winter flu – dangerous as it is for the elderly and those who smoke. It is, however, solved and routinized within a year. Big Pharma sees the money-making opportunity and by 2021 a vaccine is available. In the meantime, the frenetic pace of everything slows down, with multiple benefits to the planet and personal health. Greenhouse gas emissions fall, for starters. Over-touristed cities like Venice get a break. Localization heals. People focus on their inner lives. More and more people meditate. For a short period working from home becomes the norm. However, states still do not support employees in this process as trust is a factor. Thus, after the pause, back to business as usual. We slowed down in order to speed up again.

Image result for flattening the curve number of cases

Flattening the curve. https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926806. Accessed 17 March 2020.

C:\Users\Sohail\Documents\1My family pictures\asohail professional photos\in meditation in armenia.jpg

3. Global Heath Awakening. Large AI companies, science, start-ups, and public health expertise come to the rescue. We truly enter the digital fourth wave era – genomics plus AI help monitor and then prevent. The five ‘p’ health model – prevention, precision, participation, partnership, and personalization become the norm. There is a breakthrough after breakthrough with innovation (real-time detection, health monitoring using big data) cascading through the system. While the virus began in China, the nation leads in innovation as it is forced to adapt. Toynbee’s creative minority via open-source science and technology lead the way. Working from home booms as new relationships between employer and employee are created. Universal basic income is supported as the strength of a society is based on how we treat the weakest; not how we glorify the strongest. Young people are no longer the future, but the present. This the disruption that truly creates the fourth industrial revolution. Along with external innovation, there is inner innovation – a social revolution. Evidence-based science and technology inform public policy; not the whims of particular leaders. The insights from fighting Covid 19 are applied to climate change. There is a dramatic shift to plant-based diets. It is business transformed, social mutation,[3] not back to usual. There are, however, concerns about privacy.

The Global Awakeninghttps://in5d.com/the-global-awakening/. Accessed 11 March 2020

4. The Great Despair. Not an apocalypse, not a depression, no magic – just a slow and marked decline of health and wealth. Walls appear everywhere. The World Health Organization and others try to contain, but the virus repeatedly slips in and infects the bodies, minds, and hearts of all. Back to the European Middle Ages. The efforts to address fail. The least connected to globalization fare the best. The vulnerable are forgotten. Inter-generational memory of past pandemics inform.

Image result for viruses and the middle ages

https://www.usu.edu/markdamen/1320hist&civ/chapters/06plague.htm

Depending on one’s worldview the future looks very different. Certainly, the first scenario represents emotional fears. The Needed pause and Alibaba magic are based on breakthroughs in science and technology by Big pharma and Tech with varying levels of individual and social intervention. The Great Despair represents a failure to wisely act.

Conclusion And Next Steps

To prevent the next outbreak, first, a global ban on wet markets and trade in wildlife with real help to transition sellers so they are not impoverished. This is a huge undertaking as both the number of people involved in the wildlife trade and its global economic value are enormous. China’s wildlife industry alone is valued at $74 billion USD. However, the cost to China of this outbreak will be many times larger than this, even if only taking account of losses associated with tourism and consumer spending (Machalaba and Kartesh 2020).

However, there are potential barriers: Even though banning wildlife trade may make economic sense, there could be a cultural backlash – ‘Why should I have to live without access to the foods that make me strong. This is the West dictating too much about my lifestyle!’

Irrespective of the success of banning the wet markets and trade in wildlife, the economic costs of this COVID 19 pandemic will be debated and analyzed in great detail. The argument will most likely be made to invest in the same strategies that were suggested post-SARS, and the influenza H1N1 pandemic of 2009 — strategies that were only partially funded and implemented. That is, there will be a support to continue with the status quo and steady the ship by ensuring countries can all meet the International Health Regulations and ‘manage’ the next epidemic or pandemic challenge.

Second, there should be increased interest in detecting disease, even earlier, especially in areas of increased risk of emergence and disease spillover. This will likely support full investment in new technologies such Next Generation Sequencing (NGS), Big Data, AI and AI combined apps that can detect diseases.

Story imagehttps://bizedge.co.nz/story/the-tech-on-the-frontlines-of-the-fight-against-covid-19. Accessed 17 March 2020.

Third —and critically—will be the increased investment in real prevention strategies that acknowledge that the majority of zoonotic pathogens have emerged as a result of changes to food production, agriculture, land use and contact with wildlife (Allen et al. 2017). This could result for example, in the creation of buffer zones between wildlife and human settlements, or cost-benefit studies of new agricultural projects and land-use change that take into account increased EID risk, such as COVID 19. Even more fundamentally, real prevention strategies will mean re-thinking the current “more, more, more” development model. Taking an Eco-health view, we argue that Nature strikes back. Always.

wildlife overpass

https://loonylabs.org/2015/06/27/buffer-zones-humans/ Accessed 11 March 2020.

In conclusion: this crisis is a health crisis but, of course, it is much more. It is https://j-galt.com/accutane-30mg/ about leadership and governance , about what type of world we wish to live in. It is a test of the creation of a planetary civilization, working together to solve problems.

If we do not succeed, the next ‘Corona’ is just around the corner.

About the Authors

Sohail Inayatullah, UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies, USIM, Professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan and Associate, Melbourne Business School, the University of Melbourne. sinayatullah@gmail.com. www.metafuture.org

Dr. Peter Black, One Health Foresight Consultant and Veterinary Epidemiologist peter@essentialforesight.com www.essentialforesight.com

Special thanks to Russell Clemens for copy editing the manuscript

References

Allen, T., Murray, K.A., Zambrana-Torrelio, C. et al. Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases. Nat Commun 8, 1124 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00923-8

Inayatullah, Sohail and Ivana Milojević. 2015. CLA 2.0: Transformative Research in Theory and Practice. Tamsui: Tamkang University Press

Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. Zombie Preparedness. https://www.cdc.gov/cpr/zombie/index.htm Accessed 11 March 2020.

Fan, Y.; Zhao, K.; Shi, Z.-L.; Zhou, P. Bat Coronaviruses in China. Viruses 2019, 11, 210

Jones, K., Patel, N., Levy, M. et al. Global trends in emerging infectious diseases. Nature 451, 990–993 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06536

Inayatullah, Sohail and Ivana Milojević. 2015. CLA 2.0: Transformative Research in Theory and Practice. Tamsui: Tamkang University Press

Machalaba, C and Karesh B Fight Pandemics Like Wildfires With Prevention and a Plan to Share the Costs, Foreign Affairs (6 March 2020)

Morse SS. Factors in the Emergence of Infectious Diseases. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 1995;1(1):7-15. doi:10.3201/eid0101.950102

Olival, K., Hosseini, P., Zambrana-Torrelio, C. et al. Host and viral traits predict zoonotic spillover from mammals. Nature 546 646–650 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature22975

Webster, R. Wet markets—a continuing source of severe acute respiratory syndrome and influenza?:The Lancet, 363, Issue 9404, 17 January 2004, 234-236

United Nations Food and Agriculture Oganisation (FAO 2015) Biosecurity guide for live poultry markets. http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5029e.pdf. Accessed 13 March 2020

  1. Personal email. February 10, 2020 ↑
  2. These are best used as points of departure, to capture uncertainty and create alternative futures ↑
  3. To use the words of Satya Tanner. Facebook post. March 6, 2020. ↑

COVID-19 and the Futures of Pakistan: Inclusive Foresight and Innovation

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By Sohail Inayatullah, Puruesh Chaudhary, Syed Sami Raza and Umar Sheraz

  1. SOHAIL INAYATULLAH – USED FUTURES AND ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS

It was late January when four Pakistanis studying in China tested positive to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), which causes the disease known as COVID-19. Internally, the country reported its first two COVID-19 cases on February 26, 2020, both of which had returned from Iran. Pakistan, as of April 29, had reported 14,885 confirmed cases with 3,425 recoveries and 327 deaths.[i]

While the pandemic continues to spread, Pakistan faces other critical issues as well. For example, from 8 July to 12 November, there were 47,000 confirmed cases of dengue with 75 deaths. [ii] Moreover, twenty-four percent still live below the poverty line. [iii]

While in Islamabad in early March, I asked the guard at the SafaGold Mall why he did not have hand sanitizer or temperature scanners, as I had seen in Singapore. He stared at me with a puzzled look. I explained to him that COVID-19 was on its way to Pakistan. Another guard came by, and soon we had a conversation that went nowhere: they were ready for the Taliban and other extremists, not a virus. Geopolitics and the long war on terror had framed the national narrative. A virus is not an enemy, cannot be imprisoned, nor does it provide the opportunity to create patriotic songs that focus on national sentiments.

But the inter-generational memory of pandemics is there. A few years back, while asking about my mother’s family history, she told me that she had never met her grandmother. I was surprised and asked why; she told me she died in her late teens from the plague. The last plague epidemic in British India broke out in 1896, imported from Hong Kong.[iv] Eventually, over a 31-year period, 13 million died.[v] As the British attempted to control the plague, riots broke out across the country.[vi] What will happen this time if COVID-19 spreads? Moreover, is Pakistan at all prepared for such a spread?

Futurist Puruesh Chaudhary writes that not just COVID-19 but also climate change, internal and external debt, and other crises are coming. “In my work with Agahi and the Pakistan State of the Future Index, we suggested that a pandemic could re-occur in Pakistan. When we published a policy exercise, ‘The Future of Possibilities’ in 2019[vii], participants identified the emergence of a pandemic that could severely impact the country’s future.” However, futures work is still not seriously used in the corridors of institutional power. They are focused, as are most governments, on actions that ensure votes in the next elections.

Currently, Pakistan, like the rest of the world, is engaged in the “hammer and dance”[viii] strategy – that is, hit the pandemic hard with lockdowns and then as economic livelihood, mental health and travel become more important, go back and forth between restrictions and movement. However, the strictness of these lockdowns is being challenged, especially by the religious right.

Modeling remains unclear how many Pakistanis could potentially be affected by this virus. Chaudhary writes: “A huge population (nearly two hundred million), inadequate health care systems, capability gaps, lack of accountability, and our failure to imagine multiple possibilities is our biggest misfortune. There is a pattern to how Pakistan responds to crises, and this outbreak is no different. Many of the nation’s leaders are still rehashing used futures.” There is also complacency and a feeling of lack of agency. As a security guard commented: “What can we do about the Coronavirus? One can die of a heart attack. Death is inevitable, and it could come at any time.[ix]

So, given the current crisis, what is next? While we certainly cannot say what will happen, we can outline probable futures.

THE SAVIOUR

In the first future, it is external – another nation attacking or saving- that is paramount. Once it was, the USA was saving Pakistan. Now it is China with its face masks and public health strategies.[x] A year from now, it will be China that helps Pakistan recover from financial collapse. The International Monetary Fund will come to the rescue later. Five years from now, it may be a different country. But Pakistan will remain the child, always waiting for the elder to save him/her.

https://nation.com.pk/29-Mar-2019/china-pakistan-vow-to-strengthen-ties

THE REVENGE

While forty years ago, the maulvis (clerics) occupied a minor space in Pakistani politics, today they are central to how reality is perceived. Their insistence on doing nothing, not allowing masjids to be closed, on using ignorance as a defense becomes the final straw. As one recently said: “Today, you all will shake each other’s hands before leaving the mosque. Perform namaz (prayers) standing shoulder-to-shoulder and ankle-to-ankle in the rows! If anyone amongst you contracts Coronavirus, shoot me in the middle of the street, and you will not be punished for that!”[xi] Said another: “It is all in the hands of Allah … we should fear God, not a pandemic.”[xii] Worse, the Pakistani state is unable to resist the power of the clerics. Indeed, “Even as the pandemic spread to the country, Pakistani authorities allowed tens of thousands of Islamic clerics from around the world to congregate for three days outside the eastern city of Lahore. Some 200 of the clerics are now quarantined at the site of the gathering, a sprawling compound belonging to an Islamic missionary group, Tableeghi Jamaat.”[xiii]

https://www.wrvo.org/post/pakistan-calls-limits-mosque-attendance-time-ramadan

Eventually, the religious right is forever banished to a peripheral role in politics. Progressive values once again take hold; it will no longer be fact versus faith, but a nation focused on science, technology, and inclusive economic development.

EVERYONE IN A DIFFERENT DIRECTION

https://keralakaumudi.com/en/news/news.php?id=164237&u=pakistan-staring-at-military-coup-army-chief-holds-talks-with-business-leaders-164237

Pakistan’s vision of the future is clouded, there is no unified identity. Me, myself and my tribe are most likely to dominate the agenda. Fragmentation will be the reality. Over the next six months, we can anticipate riots throughout the nation as poverty worsens and conflicts between the religious right and others increase. This will most likely lead to direct military rule, a return of to the civilian-military pendulum of governance.[xiv] The military will impose law and order. This will continue over the next few years. Looking back, Pakistan’s response was “too little, too late.” Power politics, poverty, and traditional ways of seeing the future were all complicit.

2. PURUESH CHAUDHARY – TECHNO PAKISTAN AND THE AWAKENING

In this future, the young make a massive push towards the digitalization of the economy. The 4th Industrial Revolution creates real change. Entrepreneurs and small business owners increasingly rely on using technology to enhance productivity and consumer experience, setting a better balance between work and life. This group of energetic young Pakistanis enables meaningful economic opportunities. 5G technologies create more jobs. They are not only leading a movement on flattening the curve but also paving the way for a future-centric ecosystem. Baby boomers and Gen X see the shift and join the bandwagon. Notions around platform cooperativism gain momentum. Ministries and regulators start using a systems-based approach to integrate databases for anticipatory governance. Imagination and creativity become the core function for all future R&D investments.

https://bestpakistan.pk/artificial-intelligence-ai-seminar-in-karachi/

As technologies continue to transform, geopolitics becomes less of a defining factor, and public health and equity become foundational. Political parties work together as the national emergency is so grave, during, and after COVID-19. No-one can go it alone. Landlordism and the military become far less important. Instead of nationalism, South Asia and regionalism become defining. Instead of searching for enemies, Pakistan searches for partners, within and without. Women gain inequity, as do the poor.

https://www.aku.edu/academics/Pages/nursing.aspx

  1. SYED SAMI RAZA – DOOM AND GLOOM

The people are depressed. PTSD cases increase. At present, the people don’t believe that the government can control the pandemic or that it is at all serious about doing so. This situation of doom and gloom exacerbates. Some of the reasons include the political and economic situation in the country. On the political level, the people feel helpless because they have tried several political parties and not a single one delivered. In this future, trust in party politics is lost.

On the economic side, severe depression has already started. We know from the global economic depression of the late 1990s as well as from the depressions of the post-war and interwar periods that it takes quite some time for the economy to pick back up again. This time the depression will be greater as it is global in scope. All production channels worldwide have come to a stop. It could take years before the depression is over, but by then, it will have left the local economy of the country devastated. The industrial and services sector will shut down. It will take years for systems to get going again. By then, hundreds of thousands of people in the private sector will have lost jobs. Unemployment, poverty, and crime rates will increase. Global production will also shut down, and therefore there won’t be enough resources to fulfill local needs. Violence against women will also dramatically increase.

The economic depression will not just to deepen because of the pandemic, but also because of the increasing control of information. The establishment of the Command and Control Authority and government’s control over information is already raising suspicions among the people of the increasing power of the state. Information control will be used in calculating ways. It will be used as a way to bring in donations, aid, debt rescheduling, waivers, and so forth.

In this future, the legitimacy of political leaders, the Army, and the economy disappears. However, the nation does not break apart as all are too tired to resort to any dramatic action. Doom decreases the capacity to act.

https://telanganatoday.com/total-number-of-covid-19-cases-in-pakistan-rises-to-799

  1. UMAR SHERAZ – COMPETING NARRATIVES AND SOLUTIONS

Narratives have huge persuasive power and strongly influence how people and nations think and act. Flawed historical narratives seduce nations into thinking, creating value, and justifying a particular course of action. The course of Pakistani history, present (and eventually the plausible future) has consistently fixated around two narratives. The first narrative is that of war. We are a nation that has always been at some sort of war. Our neighbor across the border has been our favorite punching bag, but we have forever been at war with more than them: the war against the infidels (Jihad), the war against terrorism, war against inflation, against corruption (Ehtesaab) and war for change (Tabdeel). It comes as no surprise, then, that current efforts against the coronavirus have been anointed the “War against COVID 19”. In a recent interview, Dr. Peter Black discussed how the usage of the war metaphor discounts or limits the number of options that become available to address the challenge.[xv] Sadly, the biggest casualty of war is the human capital, which then becomes the fuel of the engines of war.

The second narrative is the term “opportunity,” and I cannot think of any time in recent memory when any Pakistani leader has not talked about the “opportune moment” to act as the nation is “at a crossroads.” This, in itself, is problematic as people who see opportunities eventually become “opportunistic.” Once that happens, there is scant regard for alternative ways of thinking, and they eventually become the monster that they set out to fight. At a time when the leading thinkers discuss a global reset button, the narratives instilled in our national psyche remain the biggest hurdle in the whole nation coming together and moving towards a unified vision, a preferred future.

COUNTER-NARRATIVES FOR A PREFERRED FUTURE

The foreseeable future will be driven by these two narratives of opportunity at once a narrative has taken hold; they can be very difficult to shake off, at least until an even more compelling counter-narrative is introduced. Instead of war metaphors, there are other narratives that are much more useful for us in thinking about our preferred future. We could talk about the “Coronavirus movement,” similar to the Pakistan movement, which united all and sundry towards a common goal and cause. The other change in the narrative could be putting “Pakistanis before Pakistan,” instead of the other way round. “Opportunity” needs to be replaced by the possibility to accommodate other world views, experimentation, and backup plans in case of failure. The goal would be to make a post-corona Pakistan more humanitarian, rather than a victim of opportunistic wish lists. There is already a narrative that says that Pakistan is considered one of the most generous societies in the world – what is called the Law of Generosity. “We Pakistanis believe that one good deed begets another, and perhaps our generosity will spread faster than the virus. Armed with the unwavering belief that humanity at large will benefit, we are trying our best to provide a cushion to those who need assistance – and hope to those who need hope.”[xvi]

ACTION PLANS FOR A PREFERRED FUTURE.

At the systemic level, there are a few things that need to be sorted out in the march towards a preferred future.

  1. The coronavirus is exacting a heavy toll on health systems and personnel. In Pakistan, there is a different kind of predicament: there are about 85,000 “missing” “doctors-in-law” in Pakistan.[xvii] These 85,000 female doctors have completed their medical education at the expense of the state or privately, but they are not part of the medical workforce in Pakistan. They are victims of the “trophy wife” phenomenon. If only 50 percent of these doctors are mobilized, 70 percent of health issues of http://www.aipa.com.au/levitra-online/ people in low-income communities can be resolved. Unfortunately, this is an issue that has not been voiced in the current drama, which is a criminal mistake made by the media and intellectuals. Our medical pipeline is bleeding profusely, and applying a tourniquet quickly is the first step in rehabilitating our medical system, which will be under tremendous stress and short of professionals in the Corona Movement.
  2. The current Prime Minister came to office with the slogan of universal quality education in the country, for all. The plan ran into issues with all stakeholders and just seemed to have fizzled out like any other electoral promise. The current predicament has brought all sorts of education systems in Pakistan (Montessori, Madrassa, government, elitist, right-wing) to a standstill and forced them to move online. As all education systems are now looking toward the government for direction and assistance, this the right time to make sure all educational systems are on the same page. This will bring the poorest of the poor in Madrassas and government schools on par with elitist schools in a uniform curriculum and uniform code of quality and pave the way for a unified vision of the future.
  3. As a general rule, governments around the world have failed the poor and the underprivileged. This is starker in developing countries like Pakistan, where the bottom of the food chain has been left to fend for themselves. Seventy percent of Pakistan’s economy is informal and undocumented. In these times of hardship, it is the networks of trust and informal networks of mutual assistance that have held the fabric of society together. A witch hunt against these networks was initiated in the aftermath of 9/11, with no clear evidence of financial wrongdoing. Twenty years later, it is time to honor and legitimize these networks.
  4. Move the ideas of pro-poor foresight and frugal innovation from the level of slogans and academic discourse to real-life practice (Kapoor, 2001).[xviii] COVID-19 has laid bare the fact that foresight and innovation tend to happen for those who can afford it. Both institutions have been found wanting in this time of global strife. In a post-corona world, this needs to change. More inclusive models of foresight and innovation need to be experimented with and embraced.

About the Authors

Dr. Sohail Inayatullah is the UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies, at USIM, Professor at Tamkang University, Taiwan and Associate Professor, Melbourne Business School, the University of Melbourne. He can be reached at sinayatullah@gmail.com.

Puruesh Chaudhary is a futures researcher and strategic narrative professional. She is the Founding President of AGAHI.

Dr. Syed Sami Raza is an assistant professor in political science at the University of Peshawar. He is the editor of the Journal of Review of Human Rights.

Umar Sheraz is the blog editor of the Journal of Futures Studies and can be reached at umar_sheraz@yahoo.com. He works at the Centre for Policy Studies at COMSATS University Islamabad, Pakistan.

References

[i] See Realtime Pakistan and Worldwide COVID-19 situation! (n.d.). Retrieved April 29, 2020, from http://covid.gov.pk/

[ii] Dengue fever – Pakistan. (2019, December 12). Retrieved April 4, 2020, from https://www.who.int/csr/don/19-november-2019-dengue-pakistan/en/

[iii] Van. (2020, April 29). Pakistan: Poverty. Retrieved April 25, 2020, from https://www.adb.org/countries/pakistan/poverty

[iv] Plague – Medical History of British India – National Library of Scotland. (n.d.). Retrieved April 4, 2020, from digital.nls.uk website: https://digital.nls.uk/indiapapers/plague.html

[v] Epidemiological Studies of Plague in India. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2555600/pdf/bullwho00328-0149.pdf

[vi] Ira Klein, “Plague, Policy and Popular Unrest in British India,” Modern Asian Studies. Vol. 22, No. 4, 723-755.

[vii] Chaudhary, P. (n.d.). Pakistan 2029 – Policy Exercise. Pakistan State of Future Index. Retrieved from https://www.academia.edu/41497049/Pakistan_2029_-_Policy_Exercise

[viii] Pueyo, T. (2020, March 23). Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance. Retrieved April 4, 2020, from Medium website: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

[ix] Welle, D. (n.d.). Coronavirus: Is Pakistan taking COVID-19 too lightly? | DW | 18.03.2020. Retrieved April 4, 2020, from DW.COM website: https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-is-pakistan-taking-covid-19-too-lightly/a-52824403.

[x] China sends medical aid to Pakistan to combat virus outbreak. (2020, March 28). Retrieved April 4, 2020, from CityNews Edmonton website: https://edmonton.citynews.ca/2020/03/28/china-sends-medical-aid-to-pakistan-to-combat-virus-outbreak/

[xi] Covid-19 is killing Pakistan’s economy. (2020, March 24). Retrieved April 29, 2020, from Economic Times Blog website: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/voices/covid-19-is-killing-pakistans-economy/

[xii] Hadid, D. (n.d.). Pakistan Calls Off Limits On Mosque Attendance In Time For Ramadan. Retrieved April 25, 2020, from www.wrvo.org website: https://www.wrvo.org/post/pakistan-calls-limits-mosque-attendance-time-ramadan

[xiv] Sohail Inayatullah, “The Betrayal of Dreams,” review of Syed Abidi’s Social Change and the Politics of Religion in Pakistan in Pakistan Progressive (Summer 1990).

[xv] Chaudhary, P. (n.d.). Pakistan 2029 – Policy Exercise. Pakistan State of Future Index. Retrieved from https://www.academia.edu/41497049/Pakistan_2029_-_Policy_Exercise

[xvi] Imtiaz, A. (n.d.). The law of generosity combatting coronavirus in Pakistan. Retrieved April 13, 2020, from www.bbc.com website: http://www.bbc.com/travel/story/20200331-the-law-of-generosity-combatting-coronavirus-in-pakistan?fbclid=IwAR3VNO08bIU5VjLfFGO-T0nNeWf75epNWguJIgj-BpDz11338TQjzcj-74o.

[xvii] 85,000 female doctors in Pakistan not working after getting education.’ (n.d.). Retrieved April 25, 2020, from www.thenews.com.pk website: https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/469205-85-000-female-doctors-in-pakistan-not-working-after-getting-education.

[xviii] Rakesh Kapoor, “Future as fantasy: forgetting the flaws.” Futures 33, (2) (2001): 161-170.

My Son Deals in Hamburgers and Other Futures: Causal Layered Analysis in Rio de Janeiro (2019)

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Museum of Tomorrow, Rio de Janeiro. Picture by Sohail Inayatullah
First published as JFS blog on

By Sohail Inayatullah and Jaqueline Weigel

THE CLA METHOD INTEGRATED INTO SCENARIOS

One of the participants lowered this voice, and said: “I am ashamed to admit it, but my son is involved with hamburger dealing”. This was the punch line of the “Healthy organic food”  group’s presentation on the Futures of Food 2030.

During the Futures Thinking and CLA Method workshop at  Rio de Janeiro, four groups presented their findings. They used the Integrated scenario method developed by Inayatullah. In this approach, four scenarios are developed: the preferred, the disowned, the integrated and the outlier.  The preferred group conceived of food in  2030 as organic, abundant and accessible to everybody. The world would be a place where people would spiritually feed themselves on light and colors, physically receive vitamin and vegetable shots, and would mentally find their balance through aromatherapy. They would practice regular meditation and be free from harmful food.  In this future, drinking alcohol, smoking or eating too much sugar would be unacceptable. In the final moments of the group’s presentation, one of the participants stated his son shamefully sells hamburgers, as if he were an outlaw. The shock was immediate, and the imagination of this ridiculous scene gave way to a possible future reality. Their metaphor, it was obvious to all, was “food for health.”

The second group, the disowned scenario, focused on a large current corporation,  interested in keeping their markets and using technology such as 3D printers to make food on a large scale for everybody.  Science, technology, and capital would guarantee future demand by ensuring abundant food, even with high initial investment costs.  Their metaphor was “food for all.”

The third group, which represented the integrated future (combining the preferred with the disowned), imagined a world with healthy food for all by 2030, resulting from both the combination of science and technology and from the better use of the planet’s natural resources. Sustainability was their core worldview and the narrative metaphor was “food for life.”

The last group, the outlier,  brought values which were atypical, but common to human beings. The group challenged the others with the narrative “Home as a farm”. Each Brazilian home would produce its own food with the use of natural resources and 3D printers.

The ingredients would be organic and small producers would be part of a relevant and active network. Large corporations – who waste natural resources and produce high levels of industrialized food – no longer dominate. Small Brazilian startups –  Brasileiras  –    lead the way.

After the presentation of the created scenarios, the organizer and CEO of Wfuturismo, Jaqueline Weigel played the role of a referee of preferred futures and decided that, while the first group had the best performance at presenting their future, the ” home like a farm” was the most convincing presentation.

FOUR SCENARIOS

Scenario title Preferred Future Disowned Integrated Outlier
System Healthy foods embraced, other foods avoided Science and technology plus large capital investment. Science and technology plus sustainability Every home has a 3D printer
Worldview Government and community regulations Large Corporations Corporations with community groups Small start-ups
Metaphor Food for health Food for all Food for life Home as farm

CLA IN BRAZIL

These scenarios were created by the participants of a CLA  – Causal Layered Analysis – workshop held for the first time in Brazil on February 15th by Sohail Inayatullah and Jaqueline Weigel. The Futures Thinking Lab overlooked the Museum of Tomorrow, which served as an inspiration to the group for Brazil to truly create their preferred tomorrow. The intention was to show how CLA  could be applied to different problems faced by Brazil, bringing a quick possibility of changing mindset and transforming the nature of strategic decision making in the Brazilian market. CLA  is used to dive into deeper waters than just scenarios and trends in order to create transformative stories of personal and collective futures.

CLA is both a theory of knowledge and a futures thinking method. It assumes four levels of reality. Daily litany or headlines make up for understanding reality. For example, the number of deaths caused by the Coronavirus. The system-level brings the complex causes of the virus, such as the sale of wild animals in the markets, the consumption of exotic animals, and the lack of buffer zones between wildlife, agricultural areas, and cities. Worldviews are the deeper perspectives enacted by the global actors on this subject, such as doctors, scientists, citizens, food producers, and government. Urbanization, patriarchy, and capitalism are the core worldviews that continue to create pandemics such as the Coronavirus. The deepest level is the metaphor. In the case of the Coronavirus, this could be the story of “more, more and more” or “food for me”, with no real rules of protection or prevention, just food to meet immediate desires, however harmful to others.

Jaqueline Weigel presenting Futures in Brazil. Picture by Garoa Produções

THE CLA GAME AND THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT

Prior to the scenario development, participants played the CLA game. In this role-playing game, members are divided into four groups. The litany – ladainha – group articulates the headlines. The systems group substantiates why the headline has become a reality. The worldview group contributes different perspectives of stakeholders, and last, the metaphor group transforms the headline into stories. The CLA game tests to see if the litany is plausible – does it have support from the system, the stakeholders, and narratives – or is it extremely unlikely.

Jaqueline Weigel presented the first headline: “Oil and gas companies have broken down and there are many unemployed Brazilians”. The systems group embraced the headline and justified that this has occurred because of corruption, the lack of foresight and innovation in creating new technologies, and systems that are not adapting to a rapidly changing world. The worldviews were presented by a worker, a student, a CEO and Minister of Labor. The student said that she was afraid of the scenario. The worker agreed. The CEO added that she was anxious and unable to make a decision, and the Minister replied that he was on his way to Hawaii.

The metaphor group entered the conversation, asserting that we always knew this would occur, as “Brazil remains a sleeping giant and is now behind schedule.” Everyone agreed that, without a fight against corruption, and without foresight built into governmental, corporate and community  Brazil would not rise.

The next headline was “Digitization has led to a recovery in Rio’s economy. Employment has reached peak levels.” The systems group burst out laughing, skeptical that this could ever be the case. The worker said he was happy, as well as the student and the CEO. The Minister was still in Hawaii.

The metaphor was: “Brazil still not on the map”.

The main emerging narrative was that Brazil was a place where everyone works hard for themselves but does not yet have the narrative of “one for all and all for one”. This partnership between capital, companies, preservation of natural resources, government and workers is urgently needed for Brazil to be able to transform.

A light moment at the workshop. Sohail Inayatullah with Brazilian foresight executives. Picture by Garoa Produções

CLA WORKING GROUPS

To practice CLA, participants created three working groups. The first looked at the futures of football. The second the futures of food. The third that futures of employment. While we explored the latter above, a deconstruction of football revealed that while loved by all, football remains owned by the few. They imagined a different future for Football. In this future, football would be owned by all. Football teams would be run by cooperatives, not large corporate clubs. This would change the deep structure of sports ownership in the nation. The narrative shift would be football “loved by all” to “owned by all.” This would thus see a systemic change toward the peer to peer co-ownership model. The litany would shift from the number of people who watch and play football to the number of people who were co-owners of football clubs.

CLA TABLE ON THE FUTURES OF FOOTBALL

Football futures Today Transformed 2030
Litany Number of citizens who  love football – watch and play Number of citizens who are part owners
System Hierarchy Peer to peer
Worldview Corporate Cooperative
Myth-metaphor Loved by all Owned by all

 

https://www.lawinsport.com/topics/item/why-isn-t-there-more-private-investment-into-brazilian-football-clubs. Accessed 21 February 2020.

CLA intends to create the most robust policy and strategy formulation for countries, society, institutions, companies, and people in general. CLA is also used for self-analysis and re-creation.

A second group focused on privacy. They wished to see a transformation in the use and ownership of data moving from self-interest to data that was good for them all.

CLA TABLE ON DATA PRIVACY FUTURES

Data Privacy Today Transformed 2030
Litany There is no privacy Data decisions are democratic
System There are no rules, citizens unconcerned Data rules in all countries
Worldview Data rules are based on convenience Data exchange is facilitated for the good of all
Metaphor Gerson’s law [i]– take advantage of everything to get ahead The three musketeers

 

One of the working groups. Juliana Abelha, Thayani Costa, Rosana Pauluci, and Juliana Magalhães. Picture by Garoa Produções

CLA OF THE SELF

CLA is of use not just for understanding and changing external conditions, but as well for transforming’s one own life story. Beginning with a problem one faces, the transformative question is:  what metaphor are you stuck in? What is your future narrative?

When applied to an individual, CLA suggests first identifying a problem (e.g. feeling stuck in a job). Then, identifying the system which may have created the problem. For example, a conflict between the need for stability and the need for freedom; the conflict between the selves of “parent” and “teenager”.  The third level is the source event or process that creates the worldview. In this case, a parent may have told a child that he/she needs to be responsible and get a job and that the future is a risky place. The final level is the metaphor. In this case, one interviewee said that his life was like that of “a bird in a cage”.  The new guiding metaphor for this person was “flying like an eagle”.  Next, participants create systemic changes that align with the narrative shift.

Another participant facing a health issue changed her story from the “black hole” to a “shining path”.

https://www.facebook.com/pg/brasilnarual/photos/?tab=album&album_id=62309. This is fr2271043298&ref=page_internal. This is from the Facebook page, “O Gigante Acordou”.

We can also create a new metaphor through inner meditation work, applying a sacred sound to the metaphor. This creates a potential for transmutation in which the new metaphor does not come from the rational self, but from a deeper aspect of who we are. For example, the final metaphor could be the wise owl – not trapped in a cage nor flying high – but knowing what are the right steps to follow: safety with innovation.

Foresight in Brasil

The context of the CLA workshop was to help propagate Futures Studies methodologies to Brazilian executives, so that organizations and society are able to transform themselves, instead of only responding to the short-term demands of the market. Without depth, there is no transformation, and without transformation, there is no habitable future. Given that Brazil remains the giant that is almost awake, it is hoped that foresight tools can help Brazil awaken and stay awake.

About the Authors

Sohail Inayatullah is the UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies at Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia (USIM). He can be reached at sinayatullah@gmail.com. Jaqueline Weigel is the CEO of Wfuturismo and can be contacted at jaqueline@wfuturismo.com

References

Inayatullah, Sohail. 2015. What Works: Case Studies in the Practice of Foresight. Tamsui: Tamkang.

Inayatullah, Sohail and Milojević, Ivana (Eds.). 2015. CLA 2.0: Transformative Research in Theory and Practice. Tamsui: Tamkang.

Milojević Ivana and Inayatullah Sohail. 2018. Narrative Foresight. Futures. 73:151-162.

Ramos, Jose. 2010. Alternative Futures of Globalization. PhD Thesis Dissertation. Brisbane: Queensland University of Technology.

[i] https://eyesonbrazil.wordpress.com/2008/11/12/gersons-law-getting-ahead-in-brazil/ (Accessed 24 February 2020).

Who is Right, Lyn or Pam? Using Conflict Resolution Scenario Methods (CRSM) to Resolve an Organisational Conflict (2020)

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By Ivana Milojević, First published as JFS Blog, 11 February 2020.

Lyn and Pam (names have been changed) are co-workers in an Australian organisation. They are in the middle of a conflict that has been brought to their director’s attention. The director is not sure whether to engage with this conflict, as it appears rather trivial. Like most people do when it comes to conflicts, the director is hoping that the quarrel will dissipate and disappear on its own. Also like most people, she habitually uses a style of conflict resolution that she learned in her family of origin; she applies it to all conflicts, regardless of the context. She has spoken to both Lyn and Pam, yet the conflict persists. Team work is suffering and the organisational targets are not going to be met.

Conflict in organisations can take many forms and can manifest at different magnitudes. Left to fester, conflicts can have a number of detrimental consequences for the organisation and the people who work in it. The ten biggest costs of organisational conflict have been identified (Blank, 2020: 46) as: (1) wasted time, (2) bad decisions, (3) lost employees, (4) unnecessary restructuring, (5) sabotage, theft and damage, (6) lowered job motivation, (7) lost work time, (8) health costs, (9) toxic workplace and (10) grievances and lawsuits. In terms of ‘hard currencies’ of time and money, one 2008 study found that U.S. employees spent 2.8 hours per week dealing with conflict – the equivalent of 385 million working days of $359 billion in paid hours (Blank, 2020: 45-46).

Conflicts have been part and parcel of human experience. For a very long time, humans have tried to solve conflicts and have developed a host of strategies which can be grouped into four basic categories (Ury et al 1988, Galtung, 1965):

  1. Power-based methods. The question asked here is: who is the most powerful? Common strategies used are direct violence (e.g. military action, forceful policing, domestic violence, torture) and various types of threats and coercion (e.g. economic sanctions, shunning, ostracising and bullying).
  2. Rights-based methods. The question asked here is: who has (or can make) the best case? Common strategies used are reliant on dominant rules and authorities within a society or a community (e.g. laws and legal systems, religious texts, codes and tenets or other forms of authority).
  3. Randomness or chance-based methods. The question asked here is: who is the luckiest? Strategies used may involve any type of sortition such as coin toss, straw-draw, rock-paper-scissor game or random lottery/selection.
  4. Interest or needs based methods. The question asked her is: what are the needs and concerns by all parties involved in the conflict? Strategies used involve various problems solving approaches which require empathy, nonviolence and creativity.

https://examples.yourdictionary.com/internal-conflict-examples.html

It is clear from the above that the way conflict is resolved and whether such conflict resolution is sustainable is highly dependable on the way the conflict is framed. The way conflict is framed then influences the question asked and the strategies used. The underlying views and assumptions about human nature – such as (1) humans are violent and world is competitive vs. (2) humans are rational and can resolve conflicts non-violently vs. (3) humans are naturally good and connected with everyone and everything else that exists vs. (4) humans are all those things – will also impact on a choice of strategies. Finally, personal and cultural factors determine whether parties involved will be able to resolve the conflict themselves informally or there will be a need for the third party and formal involvement. As the power of disputants to manage their own conflict decreases, so does the potency of interest and needs based methods, to be replaced by rights based and power-based methods instead. As evocatively expressed by Kraybill (2001: 18) when law begins community ends.

At the organisational level, disputants commonly have access to a range of these methods, and sometimes legal instruments are needed. Legal processes, however, are costly and time consuming so interest or needs based methods are preferable when there is still even a semblance of a community within an organisation. Moreover, even after legal processes are completed, organisations need to restore optimal communal functioning. Conflict resolution scenario methods (CRSM) help with such organisational, interpersonal and community-based disputes.

The (trivial?) conflict between Lyn and Pam is as follows:

Pam recently moved to the same shared, open-space office where a number of other people, including Lyn, work. When she met everyone, she introduced herself as Pam. While all other people call her by that name, Lyn refuses to. Instead, as is the custom in some parts of Australia, she decided to make her name longer and add ‘o’ to it. The day Pam became ‘Pam-o’ was the day she became irritated by Lyn. At first, she tried to ignore her. Then she became stern and rude towards her. Then she engaged in some passive aggressive behaviour, refusing to follow up on the projects that were to be done cooperatively. After a number of months, she stopped talking to Lyn completely. She tells her friends that Lyn is a horrible person. Pam’s friends at the office agree. They say Lyn is a ‘country bumpkin’ and a ‘bogan’ [an Australian slang for an uncouth or unsophisticated person regarded as being of low social status]. Lyn has no idea why Pam is so upset. Her and her friends think Pam is a bit uptight and should mellow out. Lyn is higher in the organisational hierarchy though not directly Pam’s superior. Pam has worked in that organisation for a longer time but has never confronted Lyn about the nickname issue directly.

https://blog.bookbaby.com/2017/07/internal-conflict-and-your-characters/

From the outside, the conflict between Lyn and Pam seems relatively easy to resolve. The director of the organisation thought that by raising the issue with Lyn, she would stop her behaviour. However, Lyn claims that she has trouble distinguishing between Pam and Pat who both work at the office, so calling Pam Pam‘o’ makes it easier for her. Pam rejects this explanation and believes Lyn’s motives are more sinister. In any case, both are now so irritated with each other that they are requesting the director to ‘chose a side’ and to explain the other one why she is wrong in her thinking and behaviour.

The director herself became irritable that she has to waste her time on a trivial conflict, instead of focusing on reaching organisational targets. She attends a futures workshop (which I co-facilitated) where Conflict Resolution Scenario Methods (CRSM) are used.

I have previously used CRSM on a number of conflicts and in a number of settings. For example, I have written a theoretical piece, published in 2008 in Journal of Futures Studies, which applied it to an international, inter-ethnic conflict (Milojević, 2008). I have also used it to better understand and propose solutions to an intergroup conflict, e.g. the Australian 2005 Cronulla Riots. Finally, I have used it to assist disputants resolve interpersonal conflict, such as the one between Lyn and Pam.

In a nutshell, CRSM proposes there are five basic future outcomes of any given conflict between two disputants. Based on works by Johan Galtung (the Transcend method), Thomas Kilmann Conflict Mode Instrument and Ron Kraybill’s Conflict Styles method, the five possibilities are summarized as follows:

  1. Conflict is resolved ‘my way’. Disputant 1 wins.
  2. Conflict is resolved ‘your way’. Disputant 2 wins.
  3. Conflict is resolved ‘half way’. Disputants compromise.
  4. Conflict is resolved ‘our way’. Disputants achieve transcendence and cooperation.
  5. There is ‘no way’ to deal with conflict. Disputants withdraw or continue to evade the conflict.

Researchers have found that most people are comfortable using one or two conflict resolution styles and that they apply them to most situations, irrespective of circumstances. Personal, cultural and ideological factors also play a role. ‘My way’ approaches are more popular with people who hold political and economic power, and in individualistic, competitive based cultures. ‘Your way’ approaches are commonly utilised by those who have a dominant ‘pleaser’ self. Most people, most of the time, try to not deal directly with conflict, i.e. to not engage or somehow withdraw from it. Most of us are conflict avoiders (most of the time) even though the news makes it seem we are all at war with each other. ‘Our way’ or ‘win-win’ solutions are favoured by cooperative cultures and left leaning ideologies.

Each of these styles, however, has costs and benefits. What is helpful for conflict resolution, in organisations and elsewhere, is to get out of routine responses to conflict, critically evaluate which style may be the most appropriate and help our (reflective) self choose the style rather than a particular style becoming the core of our identity/habitual response.

Certainly, conflict resolution is enhanced if there is empathy (with all parties), nonviolence, creativity (imagination is practiced), honesty and compassion, and a focus on needs (Galtung, n.d.). Some knowledge and understanding of the conflict itself as well as perspectives of all involved is needed. The better the understanding, usually the more appropriate the response. The goal is a solution/outcome that is acceptable and sustainable (Galtung, n.d.).

CRSM facilitates moving away from the problem (past/present, unmet expectations) to the future (going beyond, ‘dis-embedding’ the conflict from where it is currently located and ‘embedding’ it elsewhere’ (Galtung, n.d., Boulding, 1988). When we access the future – where people could be or want to be, rather than where they were or are – we immediately move to a better place as far as conflict resolution goes. Once again, as argued by Johan Galtung, the more alternatives are presented and developed by people, the less likely they are to engage in violence, whether direct, structural, cultural, epistemological or psychological.

CRSM is helpful as it can map the conflict before a decision as to which style of conflict resolution is the most appropriate can be made.

As far as the conflict between Lyn and Pam is concerned, the mapping the director did was to create five scenarios, organised on a two by two axis wherein axis one represents the level of assertiveness (and level of concern for a principle) and axis two represent the level of cooperation (and level of concern for a relationship). Five possible courses of action resulted from the mapping:

After overviewing these possible strategies, the decision was made that some of them are either not going to work (e.g. ‘Lyn calls Pam Pam‘o’ half of the time’) or are going to create further conflict and friction (e.g. Directing or Avoiding). The director and her other co-workers present at the workshop then applied the Transcend Method’s axis to come up with a host of cooperating, collaborative, transcendent and imaginative ‘our way’ strategies. These are presented on the right side of the following table:

As is visible from the above paragraph, the Transcend method focuses on five possible outcomes as does the two by two axis, five scenario method. Both reframe conflict as an opportunity to create something new and improve relationships in the long-term. However, the Transcend method orders them differently so to enhance futures direction. Furthermore, Transcend method privileges ‘our way/win-win/cooperating’ approach and is useful when such strategies are considered the most http://asnu.com.au/levitra-20mg/ appropriate. At the same time, our way/cooperative strategies may not be appropriate if (1) the time to resolve the conflict is too short, (2) people are overloaded with ‘processing’, (3) the goals and issues of one disputant are undoubtedly wrong or (4) when the disputed issues are not really important for anyone. To further ascertain which of the five futures outcomes and styles (Style Matter, 2020) may be the most appropriate for the specific conflict, mapping via two by two axis, five scenario method is critical.

Armed with a host of strategies to resolve the conflict, the director returns to her office. She calls both Lyn and Pam to join her for a cup of tea. After they are settled and relaxed, her first question to them is: Do you want me to decide who is right and wrong or do you wish to resolve the conflict?

Stay tuned!

About the Author

Dr. Ivana Milojević is a researcher, writer and educator with a trans-disciplinary professional background in sociology, education, gender, peace and futures studies and Director of Metafuture. She has held professorships at several universities and is currently focused on conducting research, delivering speeches and facilitating workshops for governmental and academic institutions, international associations, and non-governmental organizations around the world. Dr Milojević can be contacted at ivana@metafuture.org

References:

Blank, Sam (2020) Managing Organizational Conflict. Jefferson, NC: McFarland & Company.

Boulding, Elise (1988) Image and Action in Peace Building. Journal of Social Issues. 44(2), 17-37.

Galtung, Johan (1965) Institutionalized Conflict Resolution: A theoretical paradigm. Journal of Peace Research. 2(4), 348-397.

Galtung, Johan. (n.d.) Conflict Transformation by Peaceful Means (The Transcend Method). Participants’ and Trainers’ Manual. Accessed 22 January 2020, from https://www.transcend.org/pctrcluj2004/TRANSCEND_manual.pdf

Kraybill, Ronald S. (2001) Peace Skills: Manual for Community Mediators. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.

Milojević, Ivana (2008) Making Peace: Kosovo/a and Serbia. Journal of Futures Studies, November 2008, 13(2): 1-12. Available here: https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/132-A01.pdf

Style Matters: The Kraybill Conflict Style Inventory. Accessed 21 January 2020, from https://www.riverhouseepress.com/

Ury, William L., Brett, Jeanne M., and Goldberg, Stephen B. Getting Disputes Resolved: Designing Systems to Cut the Coasts of Conflict. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.

The Prout Parliament Game (2019)

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First published as JFS Blog (14 January 2019) https://jfsdigital.org/2019/01/14/the-prout-parliament-game/

At the summer retreat of the Ananda Marga movement in Australia, a socio-spiritual group that advocates the adoption of Prout ideals, I had the chance to experiment with gaming and creating progressive policy futures by running the first Prout parliament game. The core question was what would the world look like if Prout – as theory and movement – was in power; if the core ideas of Prout[1] were adopted as the norm, as informing and framing global and local legislative priorities? [2]

Prout itself is an acronym of the Progressive utilization theory, articulated by P.R. Sarkar in 1959. It is considered by leading scholars as one of the clearest alternatives to capitalism[3] (and communism).[4]

The Prout parliament game has four parts. Part 1 is an explanation of core Prout ideas in a futures context. Part 2 is a futures wheel process that develops the implications of key emerging issues. Part 3 is athe development of a checklist that is used to informed decision-making. And part 4 is the process of using the checklist to vote on parliamentary proposals. The structure and processes of the game lends itself to easy adoption for other social movements and organizations.

PART ONE

I began the workshop with the overall global context. First was Sri P.R. Sarkar’s argument that not only was time “galloping”, – increasing at a rapid pace – but that as global and local political and economic systems are experiencing flux, individuals can have a greater impact: you and I can make a difference. Second, the critical importance of vision, of defining where we as a society wished to be in 20 years. The argument made was that those who can imagine a desired future, feel the future they wish, had a greater chance of achieving the future. Strategy thus emerges from vision and not as an outcome of current problems. As Sarkar has argued: “What is the use of recollecting the history of your past life? Try to learn only about the future. [5] You are to look ahead, you are to look forward. We must keep the goal fixed before us, and keep moving towards the goal.”[6]

I then presented some critical aspects of Prout. These were:

  1. Inclusive spiritual practice
  2. A vegetarian diet, especially non-violence towards animals
  3. Deep sustainability in that Gaia is treated as a cooperative partner
  4. The switch to renewable energy and the creation of energy cooperatives through peer to peer energy platforms
  5. Neo-humanistic education – a focus on teaching and telling stories that were based on planetary identity. Ethnicity, religion, nation-states are not defining: deep spirit and nature are. Traditional ethnic and gendered stereotypes are shunned for the stories of how humanity as a collective has solved problems.
  6. The move toward regional association, imagining a confederation of Asian and antipodean states – an Asian-Australia union by 2038
  7. Finally, we sought to remeasure this future, moving from GDP as defining to a quadruple bottom line: prosperity (increased goods and services), sustainability (nature, first), social inclusion (a society where inclusion is designed as the norm) and spirituality (happiness and other measures of bliss).

PART TWO

In this context, we developed six working groups and asked a series of what-if questions (derived from the foresight literature)[7] for Australia by 2038. Each group explored the implications of each question and articulated Prout strategies.

  1. Chindia wins the current economic game – 50% of world GDP is produced by these two nations
  2. The neohumanist education revolution – national policy of teaching deep sustainability and inclusion.
  3. The energy shift to renewables – 50% of all homes produce their own energy
  4. Plant based diets as the new normal – 50% of all individuals self-identify with a plant diet based (up from the current 1 million or 5% vegetarians or vegans in Australia)
  5. Gender equity – in 50% of all boards (up from the current 27-32%)
  6. Technologies of the mind – eight million practice meditation or 36% of the Australian population by 2038. This would be up from the current two million.

For the rise of Chindia,[8] participants suggested that given the reality of conflict and war – as one hegemon was rising and another declining – developing pathways toward cooperation, through international mediation and arbitration in the Asian region was critical. More significantly, greater economic growth/equity would result if economic leaders China and India would move from the corporatist model to the platform cooperative model. They would not only succeed at the current economic game, but create a far more inclusive alternative game.

For the rise of plant based diets including the likely exponential growth of cellular agriculture, participants (who all happened to be between the ages of 8-14) suggested that Prout work with farmers to help them transition from meat based systems to plant based systems. Their suffering needed to be addressed. Prout practicing compassion was paramount here.

Moreover, what school children read and how they worked with each other would not be based on strict gender roles. Traditional feminine ways of knowing would not be marginalized in this alternative future.

The technologies of the mind group noted that with 50% of people meditating, there would likely be improved physical and mental health,thus freeing up financial resources to be used in other areas. There would also be an elevation of consciousness – softer, wiser, integrated – of the society, making progressive policy changes in other areas easier.

The energy group suggested that a renewables-based energy revolution would help mitigate climate change and help encourage local prosperity.

PART THREE

After brief presentations by each group, participants were asked to develop a Prout checklist. A checklist, developed by Peter Provost[10] is meant to guide medical practitioners, ensuring that rules of safety and procedure are followed. These are step by step guidelines to https://j-galt.com/ambien-10mg/ ensure that sentiment does not come in the way of decision-making.

For the Prout movement, the checklist becomes a way of articulating policy based on the core Prout ideas and not on sentiments one may privately hold. It also helps in taking Prout from a theory to practice.

Groups articulated a number of salient points. Some of the key ones were:

  • Does the policy lead to reduction in crime?
  • Is the policy inclusive?
  • Does the policy reduce pain to animals and nature?
  • Does the policy encourage cooperation?
  • Does the policy reduce inequity?
  • Does the policy encourage cooperatives?
  • Does the policy ensure that the basic requirements of housing, health, and education are provided for all?
  • Does the policy benefit the majority of people?
  • Can the outcomes of the policy be easily accessed by the majority of people?”
  • Does the policy decentralize power?
  • Does the policy help in creating regional governance?
  • Does the policy wisely use new technologies?

As this was the first iteration of the game, they remained the working group level. In the future, I hope to develop this checklist into broader categories and develop a ranked list agreed upon by all participants.

PART FOUR

With the establishment of a working checklist, we then convened the Prout parliament. As this was experimental, we first had policy positions that were easy to dissect.

In the first, it was suggested that all western medicine be removed by 2038. Using the checklist, this was quickly voted down – as it excluded an important healing tradition, it would lead to more harm, and as one participant reminded, Sarkar was pluralistic toward healing tradition – what mattered most was whether the modality cured or not.

The second policy suggestion was terminating funding for renewable energy sources and the move toward full nuclear. [11]

This was also quickly voted down as the risk of harm was considered too great. Nuclearization would also lead to a concentration of economic power. Local, cooperative energy solutions from solar, wind, and geo-thermal were recommended, instead.

The parliamentary floor was then opened up to all proposals. Three individuals presented.

The first suggested that meditation practice be legislated for all high schools in Australia. There was a debate as to which type of meditation. This was clarified as 20 minutes a day of quiet mindfulness every morning. Further clarification was sought as to primary versus high schools. The presenter argued that for primary schools it would be optional, but for secondary schools, it would be mandatory. Given the health gains and correlated reduction in crime and other positives associated with mindfulness/meditation, the resolution was passed.

The second suggested that regulation for housing be reduced so that one could quickly put up homes as needed so as to reduce homelessness. The votes were positive, however, the gender group was concerned that a lack of regulation could adversely impact safety, nature, and cultural heritage. The presenter modified his proposal, asking for reduced regulation and not the end of regulation.

The last presenter wished to adopt a policy of no government interference in private education. Upon clarification that there would still be federal neohumanist[13] guidelines, the proposal was passed. Education policy would be set through educational experts and registered bodies using evidence-base policy.

The game concluded with the parliament funding the three proposals. Each committee was given (an imaginary) one million dollars to fund research and implementation.

CONCLUSION

The conclusion was that the Prout Parliament game was

  1. A practical and easy way to teach Prout
  2. A great way to envision what a Prout society could look like
  3. An excellent approach – the checklist in particular – to shift Prout from grand theory and a possible future to pragmatic strategy. And:
  4. Useful in enhancing negotiation and cooperation skills.

While some expressed positive doubt, the workshop ended with a quote from Sri Sarkar:

“A bright future awaits you – your future is glorious, your future is luminous, your future is effulgent … the future of humanity is strikingly resplendent.”[14]

References

[1] Prout has five dimensions: 1. an alternative cyclical theory of history; 2. an alternative economic system that is cooperative based; 3. a global governance system; d spiritual practice as foundational; 4. a new theory of integrated leadership that transforms the historical cycle to a dynamic spiral; and 5. a Gaian theory of self based on gender equity and planetary identity.

[2] Sohail Inayatullah, Prout in Power. Policy solutions that reframe our futures. Delhi, Proutist Bloc of India, 2017.

[3] See Dada Maheshvarananda, After Capitalism: Economic democracy in action. San Germán, Puerto Rico, Innerworld publications, 2012.

[4] For examples, writes Johan Galtung: “Two doctrines have failed miserably in this century: free market capitalism and state socialism. The latter is counted out as dead; the former covers itself better by concealing the negative effects better, the but the victims are even more numerous. The search is on for something better than these two 19th century Europeanisms. That search will soon lead us, among others, to Sarkar …Sarkar will probably stand out as one of the truly great in this century, so much deeper and more imaginative than most … He is an intellectual giant of our times.” From the foreward, Sohail Inayatullah, Situating Sarkar: Tantra, Macrohistory, and Alternative Futures. Maleny, Gurukul Publications, 1999. Also see: https://neohumanisteducation.org/about/history/. Accessed 10 January 2019.

[5] P.R. Sarkar, The Electronic Edition of the Works of P.R. Sarkar, Version 7.5. Ananda_Vacanamrtam_06.html#ch8. Kolkata, Ananda Marga, 2009.

[6]P.R. Sarkar, The Electronic Edition of the Works of P.R. Sarkar, Version 7.5. Namah_Shivaya_Shantaya – Shiva both severe and tender (discourse 2). Kolkata, Ananda Marga, 2009.

[7] For more on this, see: www.metafuture.org. Also, www.shapingtomorrow.com and www.futures platform.com

[8] For more on this and other trends, see Sohail Inayatullah and Lu Na, Asia 2038: ten disruptions that change everything. Tamsui, Tamkang University, 2018.

[9] Accessed 9 Janauary 2019.

[10] http://content.time.com/time/specials/2007/article/0,28804,1733748_1733754_1735344,00.html. Accessed 13/12/2018

[11] For example, see: https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/Event/why-not-nuclear. Accessed 10 January 2019.

[12] https://www.facebook.com/AnandaMargaAustralia/photos/gm.1984960348262154/2108113702785173/?type=3&theater. Accessed 9 Janauary 2019.

[13] For more on neohumanism, see: Sohail Inayatullah, Marcus Bussey and Ivana Milojevic. Eds. Neohumanist Educational Futures. Tamsui,Tamkang University, 2006.

[14] P.R. Sarkar. The Electronic Edition of the Works of P.R. Sarkar, Version 7.5. The Thoughts of PR Sarkar. You are never alone. Kolkata, Ananda Marga, 2008.

Will You Marry Robots and Other Disruptions Changing the Futures of Asia (2019)

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First published as Futures Platform Blog (January 18, 2019).

Written by Professor Sohail Inayatullah, UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies, Professor at USIM. Tamkang University, Melbourne Business School, The University of the Sunshine Coast.

This piece is both methodological – how to do futures – and also content-based: what might the future look like?A few years back I was asked by a futures team from the Office of the Prime Minister of a North American nation to provide a report on the futures of Asia; specifically focused on social emerging issues. This report eventually became a book titled, Asia 2038: Ten Disruptions That Will Change Everything.While we touched on scenarios for the futures of Asia, we saw this as an opportunity not just to explore alternatives but to help shape the future, to be active participants even while we did our best to objectively present the emerging issues we identified.I thus began the report with my own narrative, my experience in growing up in Asia. Most salient was a story from high school when I was playing a basketball match in Singapore. After the game, we were offered a range of narcotics – which we refused – and during the match members from the gym stands routinely took younger students to the toilet where they would flush their heads. This would be unimaginable in Singapore and much of Asia today. Using this narrative to create a sense of how the last forty years had changed, we then focused on the next twenty.

From Ancient History to Transformed Future: Can Armenia Leapfrog (2019)

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First published here as JFS Blog (9 May 2019). https://jfsdigital.org/category/blog/

 
Can Armenia leapfrog other nations instead of following the traditional development paradigm? Will Armenia be able to use financial and social capital from the Armenian diaspora to transform their economy? What is a wise direction forward for cities and the nation?

These and other questions were explored over three days from March 25-27th, 2019 by senior advisors to the Armenian government, Mayors and Governors, and executives from the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

Working with ADB Country director, Shane Rosenthal, ADB’s Dr. Susann Roth, and futurist Professor Mei-Mei Song,[i] I facilitated four workshops for participants. The first was for senior advisors to the government (to the deputy Prime Minister, for example), the second was for nearly all the nation’s Mayors and Governors, the third was for the Foundation for Armenian Science and Technology (FAST), and the fourth was for the local ADB office. These workshops used the six pillars approach to futures thinking, and applied methods such as the futures triangle, emerging issues analysis, the futures wheel, scenario planning, causal layered analysis, visioning and backcasting to create alternative and preferred futures. [ii]

My stand-out learning experience was that, when we focused on the impossible vision, participants tended to shy away, believing reality is too difficult to bend. However, the majority of participants had just created or played a significant role in the recent “Velvet Revolution” and were convinced that transformation was not only possible but inevitable.

When I showed them one my of my favorite slides of Nelson Mandela, one table quickly chimed in and said, “that is us.”

Buoyed by their recent success, they did not wish for either no-change or marginal-change scenarios. They insisted on adaptive change and indeed many wished for radical change. This created an easy playing field for our role as change facilitators.

Photo by Sohail Inayatullah

However, I was certainly surprised, especially after I had landed at the airport and saw the Ural Airlines plane,  I felt I had gone back in to the Soviet era.

But everything at the airport was swift, smooth and service providers were incredibly friendly. The stay at the hotel continued in this vein – everything was doable. When I asked for a special meal, the chef quickly emerged saying, not a problem.

While Kim Kardashian and Cher have been their most famous exports, I could see that tourism had a real possibility.

http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/262730/

Each day we began the workshops with a discussion of history and the used future. For participants, this was represented by the traditional educational system with its steep hierarchy and lecture style. The lecture was considered far more important than the outcomes of learning. City design too followed the traditional pattern of center-periphery, with roads being the main measure of success. Even though Yerevan is considered one of the oldest continuously inhabited cities in the world, with a history of 2800 years, the recent revolution made it to segue from the used future to the desired vision.

Sohail Inayatullah

Yerevan celebrates 2800 years of history. Photo by Sohail Inayatullah

The Future City

Thus, while mindful of their past, participants had the greatest clarity about the nature of the future city.

The Mayors imagined:

  • A clean and green city.
  • A smart city using the full range of new fourth industrial revolution technologies.
  • A city that was friendly to the disabled.
  • A city that was connected to the regions.
  • Citizens that had world-life balance.

This desired future could be possible through the use of real-time data analytics. They hoped that Artificial Intelligence applications could provide an early warning system effectively predicting congestion, pollution, and crime.  This early warning system could help decision-makers decisively act for the benefit of the population. As one participant said, “our city must be green, comfortable, with infrastructure accessible for everyone, for drivers and pedestrians, for pets, and those with disability.” This was not just a clean, green, smart and connected city, but an inclusive city.

The Geo-Political Context

To create these new cities and a new nation, participants understood that geopolitics must favor them.  They did not wish a repeat of earlier conflicts. They desired a layered strategy that:

  1. Measured as a success the number of peace treaties plus developed infrastructure which would enable regional connectivity.
  2. Had a system of open borders, with peace based on mutual safety.
  3. Embraced a worldview where the neighbors all shared an ideology of peace first. This meant moving from isolation to strong interconnection created through friendly markets.
  4. As a transformative narrative, imagined geopolitics moving from an island to an interconnected oasis.

Professor Song facilitating the causal layered analysis exercise on geopolitics. Photo by Sohail Inayatullah

Participants tended to draw from nature when they articulated their narratives. The energy group, for example, saw the present as a dying tree in a desert with the ideal to become a self-sufficient forest. To do this meant exploring a range of energy security options from safe nuclear, to renewable energy sources with the renewable portion of energy increasing over time, and using AI to ensure energy efficiency as well as house-to-house energy sharing (dynamic peer-to-peer energy sharing platforms). [i]

Amalya Hovsepyan, a Coordinating Adviser at the Ministry of Justice, presenting the new energy future. Photo by Sohail Inayatullah


Stages And Scenarios Of Energy Development

One group saw this energy independence and urban development transition in four stages.

Dr. Susann Roth facilitating the scenario exercise. Photo by Sohail Inayatullah

The first stage was the continuation of the present. Traffic jams, pollution, congestion, and slow economic growth all leading to unhappy citizens. Addressing these changes through short term marginal strategies such as 10% of the cars in the nation electric, 10% of the buildings green, some industrial growth, and some streets modernized would lead to marginal well-being.

However, the participants agreed that more than 10% progress was needed. Adaptive change was required, and  would be the next step. In this preferred future, 50% of the cars would be electric, 30% of buildings  would be green (indeed, trees would be seen as infrastructure),[i] and two to three developed economic sectors (tourism, food, and perhaps artificial intelligence). This was described as the “City on the Move.”

The Asian Development Bank Workshop Report. Image by  Keisuke Taketani<keisuke.taketani@gmail.com>

Where they wished to end up by 2030 was in a radical future, what they called, following the earlier nature-oriented theme: “Welcome to Paradise.”

Ararat Valley. Courtesy of Anushik Avetyan

In this future, or final stage of the energy and economic and social development transition, 100% of all cars in Armenia are electrical, all housing stock and public buildings are green (retrofitted), all streets modernized, and the economy developed in the areas  of eco-tourism, agriculture, information technology, and data analytics.

Hrachya Sargsyan, the Deputy Mayor of Yerevan, presenting the scenarios. Photo by Sohail Inayatullah

Getting There

But how might Armenia get there? One group of mayors and governors were clear that the required innovations not only had to be commercially viable, they had to create wealth. For example, the progression would be first smart phone apps to measure energy use, then the use of AI to reduce congestion, and ultimately the creation of roads that could harvest energy.[i] Further steps would be similar to the new Ali Baba project in Malaysia where they are creating a city brain,[ii] to ensure that real time traffic information reduces congestion.

All participants agreed that Armenia needed to:

  1. Ensure zero tolerance for corruption – this would create a culture of trust, an enviable investment climate, and a virtuous cycle of prosperity.
  2. Investment needed to be green and sustainable. For them, this meant reducing energy costs, increasing well-being, the health, of citizens, and creating innovation that could lead to more innovation.
  3. Investments needed to use new AI supported technologies. While these disruptions would certainly lead to some unemployment in the short run, in the medium-to-long run, new industries and jobs would be created. These would be clean, green, and smart.
  4. The center of Armenia, Yerevan, needed to develop in conjunction with its regions, and development in Armenia, especially development that leapfrogged, would not be possible without open borders and peace with neighbors.

The Asian Development Bank Workshop Report. Image by  Keisuke Taketani<keisuke.taketani@gmail.com>

Is Leap Frogging Possible?

This robot was designed by Expper Technologies. Photo by Anahit Nersisyan

But is leapfrogging possible? The CEO of the Foundation for Armenian Science and Technology (FAST), Armen Orujyan,  reminded participants at the workshop that Armenia was known as the “silicon valley” of the former Soviet Union.

In his view, intellectual capital had not disappeared; it just needed to be nurtured, encouraged, and invested in. Indeed, the purpose of FAST is to incubate not just start-ups, but to create an eco-system of innovation as the springboard for a possible leapfrog.

This ecosystem, however, was not just about the external world, but also about creating a climate and culture of inner peace, of life and work balance. FAST headquarters, along with the predictable robot, had a room for inner reflection, a place to pause, to slow down to speed up.

Zen Meditation Room at the FAST Centre. Photo by Sohail Inayatullah

Time, as one participant imagined, had to be redesigned so that a new future could be possible. In the futures triangle below, a method that explores the visual pull of the future, the pushes of the present, and the weight of the past, he imagined a far more holistic understanding of a day. In this vision, there is time for family, time for sports, time for work, time for innovation, and time for tea. This he considers possible as there is a social desire for work/life balance and a healthy lifestyle. This is weighted down by the demands of the economy and the need to earn.

Drawn by Vardan Karapetyan, Senior Project Officer from the Asian Development Bank Resident Mission. Photo by Sohail Inayatullah

During the workshops, the Armenians focused not just on technology to transform, but also especially on the inner change that is required to transform mindsets.

Futures interventions are more possible when leadership is committed to them. As an example of leadership supporting innovation, the country’s President Armen Sarkissian recently commented at a presentation at FAST.[i]

Armenia is the gateway to the future. We promote making investments in our country: the country that is young, ambitious, the people of which are talented, which has a young government, and a country which feels itself in the 21st century, is young and mature. Being young first of all means how young you feel yourself by soul, whether you are ready for new discoveries, to learn, to ask questions and find answers. Whether you are ready for research, evolution acceleration.                                                             

Back to the Asian Development Bank

ADB Building, Yerevan, Armenia. Photo by Sohail Inayatullah

This links to the newly emerging role of the ADB in Armenia. Certainly, capital for green infrastructure projects will be needed, but ADB – as expressed by Shane Rosenthal –  in Armenia needed to move from a traditional development bank focused on financing and contract disbursements to an intelligent bank, helping Armenia leapfrog ahead. The knowledge required includes intelligent support to create visions of the future; risk management through developing scenarios of possible futures; and discerning the leverage points that allow for the greatest and smartest impact. ADB thus becomes not just a finance facilitator in this future, but a knowledge change-agent.  ADB thus uses its understanding of the knowledge ecosystem (historical project and network experience, data, and technical know-how) to create change.

I left Armenia inspired by their confidence, their sense that the future was bright and that they could create this future. A few of the elders certainly were far from convinced, they had seen history move not in jumps, but in pendulum swings, and were concerned that the optimism in the streets may not continue. Their concerns may be justified, however, what was significant is that the used future had been identified, alternative futures had been explored, a vision developed, and steps forward agreed to. A leapfrog may be possible.

Sohail Inayatullah is the UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies at Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia (USIM). He can be reached at sinayatullah@gmail.com

References

[1] With support from ADB project officers, Gohar Mousaelyan and Liana Arakelyan. Thanks to Russell Clemens for editorial assistance.

[2] See Sohail Inayatullah, What Works – case studies in the practice of foresight. Tamsui, Tamkang University, 2015.

[3] https://www.fastcompany.com/90241777/this-startup-lets-villagers-create-mini-power-grids-for-their-neighbors. Accessed 28 April 2019

[4] https://www.fastcompany.com/40474204/cities-should-think-about-trees-as-public-health-infrastructure. Accessed 27 April 2019.

[5] https://iecetech.org/Technology-Focus/2018-02/Harvesting-energy-from-roads. Accessed 28 April 2019.

[6] https://www.zdnet.com/article/alibaba-rolls-out-first-overseas-smart-city-ai-platform-in-malaysia/. Accessed 28 April 2019.

[7] https://mirrorspectator.com/2018/11/01/focusing-on-armenias-future-at-global-innovation-forum-by-fast/. Accessed 27 April 2019.