Feminism, Futures Studies And The Futures of Feminist Research

Ivana Milojević[1]

            In 1995, we are part of thirty years of intensive feminist research. In these thirty years, research conducted from a feminist perspective has gone into many, sometimes even surprising, directions. Women’s studies now deal with women’s issues from many different viewpoints, feminist writers and researchers are coming from many different fields, traditions, and schools of thoughts. In these article, I examine the relationship between feminist and future research and also to contemplate how feminist research might possibly look in the future.

  FEMINIST RESEARCH IS FUTURE ORIENTED

            In one respect, almost every feminist research is inevitably futuristic. As feminism is a program for social change, feminists are concerned with offering alternative visions of the future.  Change is also incorporated into the feminist understanding of social reality. Seeing, for example, norms of the objectivity, customs, law, religion, science, and other areas as historically and socially constructed, gives greater opportunity for redefinition, for reconstruction, for questioning givens, for more radical transformation, for change. What is seen as man made could be woman remade. Therefore, feminist research does not only include extrapolation, forecasting, and analysis of current trends but alternative visions, as well, even if these are seen by many as unfeasible utopias. 

            However, feminists tend to concentrate more on preferred visions and scenarios because extrapolation does not give us much hope for the future. If the future is just “a bit more of the same”, then feminist goals would be achieved in hundreds if not thousands (and hundred thousands) of years.

   Of course, as there are many types of futures activities, the feminist movement does not correspond to all of them. In terms of specializing for different topics, or using different approaches there is a ‘division of labor’ within futures field. Some believe that futures field should be filled with analysis of trends, particularly analysis of technological developments or predictions, and even one of the most potential futuristic areas, science fiction, is predominantly derived from technological forecasting. Some futurists still believe in the ‘neutral’ role of a scientist who merely stands aside and marks, describes and predicts our nearby or distant future. On the other hand, there are more and more futurists who believe in futurism which is critical, value driven, and empancipatory, creating preferable futures.[2]  It is as much an “academic field as it is a social movement”,[3]  more concerned with creating instead of predicting the future. One of the central techniques used in this type of a futures work is empowerment. This technique is also used by many feminists. Empowering is seen as something which “involves giving people the ability, the power, to participate in the creation of their own futures”.[4]  Within this distinction feminism clearly stands on the side of those who “study likely alternatives (the probable)” and are more concerned about making ‘choices to bring about a particular future (the preferable)’.[5] The main focus is in the area of social futures, with constant critical and epistemological questioning about assumptions, paradigms, goals, values and purposes. Feminists often reject different schemes, tables and other ‘impersonal’ tools, coming closer to ancient and even ‘new age’ futurism which prefers intuition or imagination as specific subjective and qualitative research methods.[6]

            There is also a clear distinction among futurists (in both approaches) who are more in favor of pessimistic visioning, so called dystopias (or counter utopias) concerned with catastrophes and decline and those who are incurably optimistic. It is quite easy to locate feminism within these two traditions. As with most other social movements (especially so called ‘modern’ ones) feminism promises us a bright future if only we follow some of its main ideological principles. Feminism not only chooses utopias consciously, it also needs them for many futures are mostly redefined  ideological values and patterns, in accordance with short and long term political, personal (with and linking relationship between the two) and social goals. Without utopias, feminist ideology and activity would lose some of its strength; while without ideology and praxis, feminist utopias would remain pure ideals, inaccessible, out of history and social reality, more or less irrelevant.[7]

    In relationship to ideology, utopias, and movements, there is an important question in front of feminists. How much is feminist research and feminist output connected to the real world? And are feminist some sort of women’s elite, who actually don’t represent anyone else but themselves?  We know that there is sometimes a huge discrepancy between most ‘ordinary’ women’s and feminist’s opinions and attitudes. Here a few important points have to be made.

            First, since gender roles are one of the most strongly defined among all of our roles, viewed as natural and not susceptible for a change, it is not surprising that a perspective which challenges deeply rooted believes confronts so much resistance, both by men and women (who have internalized basic patriarchal values); Second, feminism defines itself in terms of having an open approach, and feminist researchers do try and listen to the women they are researching, such that in many cases the starting hypothesis is changed and redefined (as with participatory action research); Third, most women do agree with feminist goals and ideas, but resist defining themselves as feminist since from the beginning of the feminist movement, there has been so much condemnation and sneering at feminists.

However, feminist research has proven to be ‘successful’ in uncovering hidden structural phenomena, in inquiry that goes a step further from superficial reality. After the first shock, feminism has proven to be capable of real futuristic research, since with times more and more women have accepted feminist views partly because of the positive feedback that has come through realized futures, through societal changes. Issues like sexual harrassement have become common place finding their space even in such traditional (patriarchal) areas like women’s magazines and talk shows. Apart from its roles in changing consciousness some concrete measures have also occurred as a result of feminist inquiry. After discussing ways of achieving desirable visions, feminist offer propositions that can make a difference, that can be a stimulus for social change. Some of those propositions have became property of many social movements, parties, agendas, and even UN conventions. The results of research to a certain extent has changed previous attitudes and the ways reality was seen. It has therefore influenced policy makers as well, both on local and global level. By showing the subordinated position women are in, “positive discrimination”, changes in representation quotas has resulted, thus improving conditions in many areas. That is the reason that the knowledge and research are, within feminism, repeatedly seen as means for altering facts, for altering data, for altering conditions in human societies. Both production of theory and production of knowledge are seen as political activities, moreover they are also seen as power itself.

Feminist research is supposed to be politically ‘correct’, and it is supposed to help us achieve better society. Feminists want to understand and explain but moreover they want to emancipate and transform. That is the reason that it is often stressed that research must be designed in such a way to provide insights and visions and to establish a dialogue with the future.  

DIALOGUE BETWEEN FEMINISM AND FUTURES STUDIES

            This dialogue between feminism and futures is something which is still missing although feminism has a futuristic note and although future studies has became more gender conscious with years. Feminists would be able to benefit largely from using some specific futures methodological tools, mainly backcasting, where utopias, and current goals are be connected more tightly, where strategy results not from means-end planning but from envisioning a desired future, believing it has occurred and then working backward to “anticipate” how it occurred. Of course, not just backcasting but any futurist’s ways of exploring future possibilities, alternatives and choices, purposes, goals and intentions, their experience in planning and decision-making, use of metaphors, emerging issues and layered causal analysis, as well as constant critical and epistemological future studies questioning of assumptions, paradigms and purposes, can only be beneficial for the feminist research. What-if questions and scenarios could help us move from the present even more dramatically and thus create the real possibilities for new futures. Futurists involved in participatory and emancipatory futures activities are concerned with the preparation of people for changing the future, and even if the changes are through technological development they are largely considered in the context of cultural goals, generated from different spheres including grassroots activities. Many futurist as well as many feminists believe that the real change begins at the grassroots and that is the preferred change in contrast to directed one from the government and power positions.  This focus on grassroots activities is a crucial point of convergence between

futurists and feminists.

     Feminist should consider seriously getting involved in futures reasons for some pragmatic reasons as well. Our time is characterized by increased interest for future studies, whether because of the approaching “mellinium” or because of the unprecedented nature of technological change, the future has arrived. The number of publication and members in futuristic societies are largely increasing every year, and furthermore, within almost every separate scientific discipline, the futures approach is developing either as separate area or continuumum of what has been researched.[8] Through the future studies field feminism can spread its influence to many different areas which could be otherwise closed. Through a dialogue both fields can enrich themselves.

            In the next part of the article I discuss the feminist critique of the futures field and argue that futures studies should include feminist perspective in its dominant knowledge paradigm.  

FUTURE FUTURE RESEARCH SHOULD BE GENDER CONSCIOUS

            Future studies should have the most flexible, the most diverse, and sometimes even surprising approach since their field of study exists in the unlimited human mind rather then in already given events and data. But futrues studies also generates and follows epistemological and methodological practices from already existing social sciences. The work we are doing is inevitably limited not only because of traditional opinions in science, notions and theories which rules scientific thinking in certain periods, but also because of our own interests, values, dreams and visions.

            Critics of the research in the field of future studies argues that this field is also burdened with a male-centred bias. We could start with showing what is the proportion of women and man in the field, for example, we could show their participation in World Future Society, World Future Studies Federation, as well as in government planning agencies, among policy makers and others who control important political decision.[9] We could also analyse the sexism in titles, constant use of pronoun ‘he’ and noun ‘man’ when discussing ‘universal’ issues (though lately, language has become more sensitive), lack of topics of concern to women, etc.

            A deeper approach would include a critique of current methodologies and epistemologies in the field. Patricia Huckle, for example, stresses that much of future research methodologies is controlled by man and male viewpoints.[10]  She points out at the use of “experts” and the way problems are chosen in methods like Delphi technique or in developing future scenarios. Women would not chose experts but would prefer small groups, working together in an egalitarian environment to solve agreed upon problems. She further claims that not only methods closer to “science fiction” (science-fiction writing is, as she points out, also quite different when writting from feminist perspective) represents the man point of view, but that trend extrapolation, cross impact matrices, quantifiable data for identifying alternative future, simulation modeling, simulation gaming and technological forecasting also “suffer from the limits of available data and ideological assumptions”. The questions asked, the statistics collected, the larger framework of knowledge remain technocratic–and thus male in the sense that they avoid issues central to women.

            However, most assumptions futurists hold about the future, feminists share as well. Those would be: that the future is not predetermined and thus not predictable; that the range of alternative futures exists, and; that the future will be (from minor to major changes) different in many respects from the present world.

            However, among basic assumptions about the future belong another one which would be very problematic seen from a feminist perspective. And that is that the notion that future outcomes can be influenced by individual choices and that individuals are solely responsible for the future.[11]  While this is certainly true on one level, this assumption has to be put into social context, reinforced with the concept of power and the availability of the choices. Otherwise it would represent typical Western and male way of looking at those enpoverished women bounded by tradition, family, society, economy or politics. In its bare form it further assumes position of power, stability, democratic and moderately rich environment. Unfortunately, for the vast majority of people the future does just happen to them. Black and white, aggressor/victim theory would not contribute much to the discussion. But, for example, let us consider the future (or past which was future once) of those who were colonized. Some people attempt to avoid or resist colonization, but for most whatever they attempted to do, colonization was a given, almost like a physical force in a form of tornado. The unavailability of choices also implies to people in war zones, ordinary citizens, children abused by adults, young women sold as sex slaves, and unfortunately, many, many others. When looking at the metaphor for choices, that one of using road map to get to particular destination, it is forgotten that most people in our global world, and women especially, do not possess neither map nor a car. Furthermore, put in the mentioned situation they would not know how to read the map as it is a product limited to a particular culture and particular class. To conclude, there are many things we, as humans, or as a particular group of people, can do about the changing conditions of our lives, about influencing our future. But, there are maybe even more things, we as a particular group of people, individual or family unit, can do nothing about, since we exist within given historical social and world structures (gender, of course, being one of these historical structures).

            There is also one very specific area in which many feminists see the most danger in having male-dominated future’s research and that is the area of controlled reproduction.[12] Man has been trying to control and dominate women’s participation in procreation at least since the beginning of the patriarchy, and current development of medical science might enable them to gain almost complete control over human reproduction. This would totally marginalize women, as they would be enterily removed from the reproductive biological cycle. Feminists argue that in this crucial area of future of the humanity and human evolution women’s approach must be of extreme importance. This is so not only because these are our bodies and genes involved, but as welll because women were largely responsible for human reproduction from the beginning of our species existence, our identities have become to a large extent based on this biological history. Of course, cutting this responsibility could be by some seen as liberating for women’s destinies (they would escaped childbirth and possibly childrearing), but what is worrisome is that it could further decrease woman’s say in what would be our common future. Developments in genetics are occuring without women’s voices, Bonnie Spanier argues in her Im/Partial Science: Gender Ideology in Moecular Biology[13] nongendered bacteria are described in gendered terms, often reinscribing dominant/subordinate relationships. Even the building blocks of life (and they are being transformed by new technlogies) are not immune from sexual ideology.

            Unfortunately, it is not only medicine and biology where women do not have control over the research agenda. Women’s participation in science in general is still very limited, and so it is in the futures field.  However, there are many reasons why women should be included in this field.  

(1)        Women’s role in many societies is changing rapidly, women are becoming more visible in many public areas. Statistically, we represent at least half of the humanity, and in the future women could significantly outnumber men (given the improvement in health and the fact of longer life expectation). The importance of physical force is decreasing with new technological changes so another argument for women’s subordinated position is disappearing.

(2)        Eleonora Masini argues that women can create alternatives for future better then men because of certain individual (flexibility, rapid response to emergency situations, superimposition of tasks, definite priorities and adaptability) and social capacities (solidarity, exchange, overcoming of barriers). She also shows the impressive range of women’s activities in many social movements such as peace, human rights and ecological movement. These activities will influence the future, less in terms of obvious revolution and more in terms of “an important, slow historical process of change”,[14] in creating a global civil society.

(3)        Many futurist perfer not to predict how the future would look like, seeing prediction as a mere extension of present data. They would rather see futures (and use such methods) which would bring better lives for the majority in the world community. As for women, wherever we look, no matter how bad conditions men are in, women’s conditions are always worse. According to data extrapolation, women will continue to suffer from poverty, violence, malnutrition, physical and mental abuse. We will also continue to be disadvantaged in employment, education, politics, health, law, and planning, i.e. in “controlling” the future. Clearly, women have an important say in how and what methods are used in understanding and creating the future, particularly in exploring partnership visions of the futures.

(4)        Most social scientist agree that we are entering a new era. The names range from ‘postindustrial’ to ‘information’ or ‘tourist, traveling’ societies but what is characteristic for the time we live in is that, like in all other major transitions in the past, we witness huge changes in almost every aspect of our lives. One of the main area where those changes are taking place is in our systems of belief and ways of knowing. Many intellectual see this era as the end of the domination of the Western civilization, which has reached its peak and which could collapse or it could be qualitatively transformed. In many respects, not only women’s but the future of the humanity does not promise much if we don’t  radically change our ways of exploiting the nature, organizing society, treating the “other”, dealing with differences. Feminist visionaries could give important contribution in making alternative ways of living and thinking, in describing the transition into this new era.

(5)        Even while there is a visionary dimension to futures studies, at the same time, the Future field is in some ways responsible for maintenance of the status quo. As Slaughter argues: “Many of the major institutional centers of futures activity have tended to maintain close links with the centers of social and economic power. Future research, forecasting, and education appear to be dependent upon government or corporate support and hence constrained to varying degrees by given definitions, imperatives, and economic structures”.[15] Slaughter also points out that the field remains strongly associated with North America and that many of the future studies institutionalized forums has became associated with the needs of relatively powerful groups. This would represent an artificial narrowing of vision, a closure rather than an expansion.[16] Extending futures field by critical approaches, feminist and others, could help remove these limitations.

  PRINCIPLES FOR NON-SEXIST FUTURE RESEARCH[17]

     Feminist researchers developed several epistemological principles for gender conscious research. Cook and Fonow summarize them in five basic ones:[18]

(1)        acknowledging the pervasive influence of gender;

(2)        focus on consciousness-raising;

(3)        rejection of the subject/object separation and assumption           that personal experience is unscientific;

(4)        concern for the ethical implications of research;

(5)        emphasis on the empowerment of women and transformation of

            patriarchal social institutions through research.  

            In similar way Margrit Eichler gives four epistemological principles or rather propositions which she derives from the basic postulate of the sociology of knowledge. Those principles are:  

(1)        all knowledge is socially constructed;

(2)        the dominant ideology is that of the ruling group;

(3)        there is no such thing as value-free science and the social

            science so far have served and reflected men’s interests;

(4)        and because people’s perspective varies systematically with       their position in society, the perspectives of men and women             differ.[19]  

    Besides this epistemological principles feminist have made few changes within social science methodology. Methods used in feminist research are actually ones which already exist and are recognizable tools in social sciences.  What is new is the way they are applied, more precisely the thematic content they are used within. Thematic content is changed in two main ways:  

(1) already existing data and “facts” are re-examined and reinterpreted from a new perspective, and

(2) previously non-existing phenomena or those considered of no importance are analyzed (childbirth, housework, wife abuse, rape, incest, divorce, widowhood, infertility, sexual harassment, pornography, prostitution, women’s thoughts from private letters, memoirs, diaries, journals) and stress is given to some crisis situations which demystify the assumed naturalness of patriarchy.

    If futures research wants to be non-sexist or rather feminist-gender-conscious it does not have to follow all of the principles but at least a few. It is also important to pay attention and avoid sexism in titles, in language, in concepts, in research designs, in methods, in data interpretation and in policy evaluation.[20]  Future feminist research (done by those who share the values of feminism and futures studies) must take into account rapid changes and rethink some of the methods used. For example, within futures field topics such as future childbirth have been discussed but some of the very important question have not been stressed enough. We know quite a bit about possibilities for having children produced in artificial wombs, about genetic engineering and choices enabled by technological developments; however, questions such as: what would that mean for the babies and women, how would their experience look like, what would artificial upbringing mean to the relationship between mother and her children, are women still going to have the right to breastfeed, who is going to decide about how many babies is particular women going to have, and many others, have rarely been raised. Here, futures research still stays in the secure domain of technological forecasting, unable to reveal the circulation of power in particular futures.

             Past and current feminist research rediscovered women’s history and their existence as people and persons rather then just in terms of their relationship to men, mostly through women’s private letters and diaries. Some questions about the future would include, for example, how would feminist research draw conclusion on women’s thoughts in the time of depersonalized personal computers, who has control over communication process and is women’s work going to disappear from hard drives and diskettes as it had disappeared through other forms of written history? Or questions about the future of the housework: If housework is going to be done with the help of robots, who is going to make the software, whose priorities within the household are going to be respected, those of men, women or children? Many other have to be raised and that is where futures feminist research should channel its energy.            

THE FUTURE OF THE FEMINIST RESEARCH

      In order to discuss what would be the future of feminist research I would like to quickly skim through the history and main changes in research done by feminist. When we talk about its relationship with science, feminist research has gone through three main phases. In the first phase, feminist authors discovered women’s absence from the mainstream, or, how it is sometimes called, malestream science, accusing it for being sexist, partial, biased, with strong patriarchal values incorporated into “objective” theories and data.  In the second phase, the inclusion (re)discovery of female voices, histories, thoughts, beliefs, lives and visions resulted, mostly through qualitative approaches. So after the initial deconstructionalist phase, we gained research about women done by women and for women.  The Third phase would result in some kind of synthesis, in the incorporation of feminist research into a transformed mainstream science and realization by feminists that only if they research men as well as women can they develop a feminist science. [21] In this phase deconstruction also becomes more radical by challenging the category of women (and men) itself.

            Following the current efforts and inclinations we would expect that feminist research would go even more towards interdisciplinary approach, and become more and more diverse, and more future focused. In addition, to a more future focus, the last decade has seen feminism become more civilizationally and cultural sensitive. The feminist movement has become increasingly aware of overgeneralizations, especially implementations of Western feminist positions to the other parts of world. We, as women, do share similar destinies, but it has become obvious that not the same solutions can apply everywhere. Aminata Traore, for example, stresses that:  

They (Western feminist) have appropriated to themselves the right to interfere in our affairs, to dissect and pass judgement on them and to draw conclusions that have sometimes become action programs against which we can do nothing…. Together they want to liberate us from our cultural realities which they regard as archaic, and from our governments which they consider to be corrupt… In Africa the greatest impediments to women’s advancement are economic and political. But international thinking merely condemns our societies and our cultures.”[22]  

She also points out that many African women are determined to distinguish themselves from Western feminism, so many women’s associations insist on being regarded as “feminine” rather than “feminist”. The same implies to many other women, including Muslim women, women from former socialist countries or Chinese women who also coined a new term and would like to be seen as involved in “feminology” instead in “feminism”. Although the Western approach has been predominant so far within the feminist movement, voices of women from other traditions are increasingly heard, and are shaping the future of the feminist movement, itself. It is interesting to notice the different perception of Muslim and other women in the example of veiling. While, for most Western feminists, veiling and other forms of women’s covering could mean nothing but the horror, the ultimate in women’s oppression, for most Muslim women, the experience is quite the opposite. For them, head scarves and long sleeves may be experienced as a sensible way to dress in the hot climate, it can mean a statement of support for their religious beliefs, or an economic way to dress, the choice to live peacefully among neighbors, or the protection against sexual harassment. Embrace of fundamentalism, so scary for Westerners if it is not the fundamentalism of their own, could actually be the path to liberation for many Muslim women. They could use religion as their protection and a way of confronting men, seeing Western women as disadvantaged as they could turn only to less confining abstract morality and concrete law. [23] Inclusion of “the Other” has helped feminism see certain contradictions, like, for example, “The contradiction between liberalism (as patriarchal and individualist in structure and ideology) and feminism (as sexual egalitarian and collectivist)”. [24] So while most Western feminists start “with a recognition of freedom of choice, individuality, and ‘rights'”, these concepts are “specified in terms of the way that Patriarchy organizes racial and economic inequality”. [25] 

            Feminism has learned a great deal from the inclusion of other perspectives.  This has been further encouraged by the influence of postmodernism. While feminists have criticized many of the malestream theories which would claim to speak universal truths, “particularly in the early days of feminist theory, many accounts that aimed for explanations of male/female relations across large sweeps of history were proposed. Moreover, and this is a tendency that continues, many feminist writings have included statements containing terms such as man, women, sex, sexism, rape, body, nature, mothering, without any historical or societal qualifiers attached.” [26]  “The production of grand social theories, which by definition attempt to speak for all women, was disrupted by the political pressures put upon such theorizing by those left out of it – poor and working-class women, women of color, lesbians, differently-abled women, fat women, older women”.[27]  For Linda Nicholson postmodernism then “appeared as an important movement for helping feminists uncover that which was theoretically problematic in much modern political and social theory. Postmodernism was also useful in helping feminism eradicate those elements within itself that prevented an adequate theorization of differences among women”. [28] She further concludes, that what “postmodernism adds to feminism is an expansion of the widely held feminist dictum “The personal is political” to include the dictum “the epistemic is political”, as well. [29] It is interesting to point out that feminism through this embrace of postmodernism stay critical, if not sometimes sarcastic, towards some of its conceptions: “Surely it is no coincidence that the Western white male elite proclaimed the death of the subject at precisely the moment at which it might have had to share that status with the women and peoples of other races and classes who were beginning to challenge its supremacy”. [30] While feminism might “use” postmodernism for its own purposes, it tries to remain that critical note, which has been present from the very beginning in feminist research.

            Futures studies, of course, have been involved in a similar broadening. While Mary Daly argues that “patriarchy appears to be ‘everywhere'”, and that “even outer space and the future have been colonized” [31], it seems that “the future” as a category in itself is being decolonized. Or at least, colonizers have been exposed. Instead of only being concerned about technological forecasting, images of the future based on discrete civilizational categories are increasingly being explored. [32]  Moreover, the field in itself has been challenged as being overly male, Western, not just in terms of its participants but in terms of the knowledge categories used.  Thus more voices are entering “the future” as they are entering “the feminism”, at one level contesting these fields and another level creatively re-making them based on different cultural histories.

            The need for expanding the feminist field so it can include non-Western perspectives, Ann Curhoys has called ‘the three body problem’ of feminism (class, race and gender analysis). Since there is an infinite complexity at any level of analysis, many choose only one concept or at the most two. Trying to incorporates all three concept into research makes analysis too complex to handle. However, despite all the difficulties, incorporation of cultural and ethnic diversity as central, rather than a marginal or “added on” issue, becomes the basic task for future feminist research if it wants to form the basis for an adequate social theory. [33]

    Besides the need to incorporate culture, religion, race, age and class analysis, future feminist research has to consider technological and societal changes as well. Already research by such writers as Donna Harraway in her excellent Simians, Cyborgs, and Women [34] has begun the process of locating feminism in the emerging new technologies.

            More research is needed on the feminist response to current world problems such are energy crises, increase in unemployment and poverty, increase in social differentiation, in pollution, in violence, to mention just the few areas of research. How would feminism see the way out of these problem and what would be its solutions for the future? In trying to give certain visions and preferable scenarios for the future, futures feminist research would be increasingly beginning with the experience of women as central, and the traditional malestream approach as “the Other”. Up till now feminist research mostly began the other way around. For example, Kathy Ferguson titles her book, The Man Question instead of phrasing it in the traditional way (“The Women question” as socialists did). The time has come for a change, since feminism have gained so much in its strength. Even if the actual movement is not so present in the streets and mass gathering, women’s movement in West has became incorporated within most public spheres, within the categories men and women use to see. Some believe that this success means that feminism is dead, therefore we cannot speak about any future feminist research. “I realized finally that feminism, as such, was finished forever: a victim of its own success. Better that women get on with it–with working, writing, teaching, driving taxis, whatever–and stop thinking about themselves a s a special sub-species of the human race, in need of special attention.” [35]

            My opinion is that this is too good to be true and that while feminism has achieved some things in some countries, as long as women continue to do two thirds of the work on this planet, earning and owning less then 10% of world’s resources, and as long as women stay discriminated in almost every single area of human life, we need a feminist research. Feminism gave us new vision on gender issues, it has became one of the central tools in gender analysis and there is no reason to abandon it at this point in history.

            On the contrary, feminism is becoming a world phenomenon with a growing feminist consciousness in developing and poor countries. It does face a backlash all over the world as well, but what is more important is that feminism is increasingly becoming part of the dominant scientific paradigm, particularly in Western societies (sexism is much easier to criticise and institutions are forced to make gender changes to accomodate women). Because of its strength it can now afford to be criticized, especially from the position of non-white, non-western, non-middle/upper class women. Malestream universalism is then challenged not with another universalism but with the approach which is inherently open, more inclusive with true calls for diversity and difference. Feminism then has only few ‘givens’ and everything else is to be open for discussion and redefinition. Through all the differences, all feminist and vast majority of women concerned with improving women’s position within their societies agree that it is necessary to understand women’s subordination and to emancipate us. Analysis of causes of subordination as well as how emancipation is to be achieved vary, so we could expect to see different solution depending on a position taken. Feminist research will be different if taken from liberal, marxist, socialist, radical, reformist, black, lesbian, or anarchist feminism, and it will go in quite different directions if taken by Muslim, feminologist or within feminine approach. This diversity can only enrich current feminism and help think about how to achieve more just societies.

     When we talk about changes in feminist theory and epistemology we should remember that feminist methods did not appear completely independently, out of nowhere. They represent historical development within both science and society. The stimulus from society came mostly through democratization (industrialization) of Western societies in this century and feminist movements. Within social sciences, feminist methods and principle of feminist research follow several traditions such as: hermeneutics (inclusion of the subjective into the research), critical theory (orientation towards action, social change and emancipation), empiricism (partialities and biases are correctable through methodological improvements), postmodern approach (skepticism about universal “truths” and universalizing statements based on inevitably partial knowledge), standpoint epistemology (in their view that those who are less powerful have access to more complete knowledge through so called double vision). In that sense, the future of feminist research will also be connected with the changes both in science and in wider societies. Riane Eisler sees questioning of sex roles and relations as a part of a broader movement towards greater democracy and egalitarianism. This global movement for change happens in both private and public spheres with attempts to create a world in which the principles of partnership rather than domination and submission are primary, “the world of greater partnership and peace, not only between men and women but between the diverse nations, races, religions and ethnic groups on our planet”.[36]  Most futurists, at least those within critical and emancipatory tradition, are part of this global movement. So are most feminists. In that sense it is extremely important to establish dialogue between all of those who claim to be trying to achieve more just societies. This concern, how to think and make an “ideal” society, has been present for thousands of years. Throughout our recorded history different forms of domination had been challenged. Priests and wizards, kings and chiefs, rich and white, male and old, they all had seen at least some of their powers diminished. At the same time, we are almost as far from society which would be free from injustices, victims, oppressed and discriminated, as we have ever been. There is enough data to support the view that, in terms of justice, nothing had been and cannot be done.

            At least four different (philosophical) viewpoints crystallized on transformations of human societies experienced since the beginning of our history, in terms of discriminations and improvement of our societal organization:  

(1)        History is linear in the sense that every new society        represents different but at the same time more developed and       “better” way of organizing our lives.

(2)  History is linear in the sense that every new society represents further withdrawal of who we really are.        Eventually, this direction will lead us to total distraction,       humans as a species will stop to exist.

(3)        History is cyclical: every new society is in some ways better

            and in some ways worst then the lost one. But there is no real

            improvement in our lives, nothing is forever, i.e. everything

            is susceptible to change and can go either way.

(4)        History is static: there had not been any improvement in human

            lives, there were and will always be oppressors and oppressed,

            just names are changing, and different groups are getting into

            first or second category.

            So, what could be the future of the dispowered half of the humanity that are women? Our future is seen differently from feminist and non-feminist (all others) perspective, and at the same time it will effect any research done in the future, as part of the wider societal influence. Here I will look at the four possible scenarios and what would each mean for futures feminist research.

history valuedbasic categorieswomenfuture
linear positiveimprovementchanges in franchise, laws, educa-tion, employ-ment, etc.women and men as equal partners
linear negativedecreasefall from matriarchywomen fight back for lost empire
cyclicalno change orminor changesalways oppressed, but within  differentpatternspossibility for positive change, less oppressed in the future
staticno changedestined by sex and biologywomen will continue to be “second sex”

(1)        The first scenario would be the most preferable one. It views history as the path in which basic human rights are increasingly met, and those of women in particular. Women are entering and changing most public areas, even those who were for thousands of years reserved exclusively for man. This improvement, although it could come under minor backlashes, will continue throughout our future. Future will see women and man as equal partners, it will be realizing of the utopia in which people would be seen primarily as individuals and not in the terms of their belonging to certain gender, race, class, nation or religion.

(2) The second scenario is one of decline in which history is seen as the continuous lose from our real selves, from nature and Goddesses. The last 5, 000 years represent the continuous decline for women, their fall from matriarchy after they became the first slaves. Female deities, reflecting women’s culture and women’s power, universally accepted by humankind until the modern era of immediate pre-industrial societies are forever lost. But women should not accept this fall, they should appropriate the Amazon myth and exclude themselves from men, which would be the only way to liberate ourselves.

(3)        In the third scenario, the cycle is the most powerful metaphor. Women had been always oppressed, even in matriarchal societies, when the matriarchy purely ment that genealogy was feminine. Women’s oppression follows different patterns, it varies in different societies and different period of times, so that could give us some hope for the future. Even women will always be dominated by man, their oppression could be lessen by appropriate government or religious measures. It will also be influence by major societal changes in which the quality of life for all will be improved. The cycle promises temporary liberation, for the strong shall fall and the weak rise, but they too fill fall.

(4)        The fourth scenario is one in which changes are perceived to be minor. Women are destined by their sex and biology, and even if liberated from reproduction through technology, their physics would never allow them to gain equal status. Women’s minds are still, and will always be, in the hands of their bodies, and in that sense remaining ‘second citizens’ would be the just and only possible future.

            Depending on a person’s position different scenario would be chosen as a solution for the future. Within the feminist field, different solutions would be chosen from liberal or radical position. In the example of the scientific inquiry, while liberal feminists would see futures feminist research see as incorporating a better sample and a greater number of women researchers, radical feminist would not be satisfied if every aspect of our lives is not challenged and questioned. Certainly, the future will be different for different women, and that is something futures feminist research will have to deal with. Feminism is constantly testing, constantly destabilizing social relations, challenging social conditions. Just as in emancipatory futures, the goal is to constant recreate the future, recreate new visions, create new possibilities, never end up with a utopia, since as Ashis Nandy writes, “today’s utopia is tomorrow’s nightmare.”[37]

            However, for feminists, there are concrete goals that must be realized, the day to day life of girls and women (as well boys and men depend on it). Thus, to conclude, we (feminist, women, people) should hope that the future will see the realization of the first scenario. That would be of crucial importance for our common future, women’s future and the future of feminist research. As Sandra Harding points out “we will have a feminist science fully coherent with its epistemological strategies only when we have a feminist society”.[38] Futures feminist research will be shaped by its tradition and developments within feminism, science and society. Of course, since since the future is an open space, the real character of the futures feminist research is yet to be seen.

  Notes  

[1].         Ivana Milojević is an assistant at the University of Novi Sad, Serbia, currently on leave and living in Brisbane, Australia.  I would like to thank June Lennie and Sohail Inayatullah for providing me with research materials and editorial assistance.

[2].         For an analysis of the futurists field see, for example,

Roy Amara, “Searching for Definitions and Boundaries”, The Futurist, February 1981, pages 25-29; Roy Amara, “How to Tell Good Work from Bad”, The Futurist, April 1981, pages 63-71; Roy Amara, “Which Direction Now”, The Futurist, June 1981, pages 42-46; Richard A. Slaughter, “Towards a Critical Futurism”, three articles in the World Future Society Bulletin, in following issues July/August 1984 (pages 19-25), September/October 1984 (pages 11-16 and 17-21); Somporn Sangchai, Some Aspects of Futurism, (Honolulu, Hawaii Research Center for Futures Study, 1974); and Richard A. Slaughter, editor, “The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies”, special issue, Futures, April 1993, 25(3).

[3].         Sohail Inayatullah, “Epistemologies and Methods in Futures Studies” page 3 in Richard Slaughter, ed., The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies (Melbourne, Futures Study Centre, 1995).

[4].         Martha J. Garrett, “A Way Through the Maze: What futurists do and how they do it”, Futures, April 1993, 25(3), page 271

[5].         Roy Amara, “Searching for Definitions and Boundaries”, The Futurist, February 1981, page 26.

[6].         However, some authors claim that since the feminism is a perspective and not a research method, feminist scan use a multiplicity of research methods and they, in fact, do so. See, for example, Shulamit Reinharz, Feminist Methods in Social Research, (New York, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1992), page 240. Her analysis on feminist use of different methods is as follows: “Some feminists argue that there is no special affinity between feminism and a particular research method. Other support interpretive, qualitative research methods; advocate positivist, ‘objective’ methods; or value combining the two. Some imply ‘use what works’, others ‘use what you know’, and others ‘use what will convince’.” (page 14)

[7].         For the relationship between utopias and ideology see Herbert Marcuse, “The End of Utopia”, and Karl Manhajm, “Ideology and Utopia”, in Miodrag Rankovic, Sociologija i futurologija (Sociology and Futurology), (Belgrade, Institut za socioloska istrazivanja Filozofskog fakulteta u Beogradu, 1995).

[8].         See, for example, Richard Slaughter, ed., The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies (Melbourne, Futures Study Centre, 1995).

[9].         A glance at membership directors and the gender distribution of articles published in futures journals and magazines quickly makes this point.

[10].       Patricia Huckle, “Feminism: A Catalyst for the Future”, in Jan Zimmerman, editor, The Technological Woman (Praeger, New York, 1983).

[11].       See, for example, Geofreey H. Fletcher, “Key Concepts in the Futures Perspective”, World Future Society Bulletin, January- February 1979, pages 25-31; Roy Amara, “Searching for Definitions and Boundaries”, The Futurist, February 1981, page 25; Richard A. Slaughter, Futures: Tools and Techniques, (Melbourne, Futures Study Centre, 1995).

[12].       See, Susan Downie, Baby Making: The Technology and Ethics (London, The Bodley Head, 1988).

[13].       Bonnie Spanier, IM/Partial Science: Gender Ideology in Molecular Biology (Bloomington, Indiana University Press, 1995).

[14].       Eleonora Masini, Women as Builders of Alternative Futures. Report Number 11, Centre for European Studies, Universitat Trier, 1993.  

[15]. Richard Slaughter, “Towards a Critical Futurism”, World Future Society Bulletin, September/October 1984, pg 13.

[16]. Ibid, July/August 1984, page 19.

[17].  Feminist literature used for the article (besides books and articles already mentioned in other footnotes): Helen Roberts, ed., Doing Feminist Research, (London and New York, Routledge, 1990); Joyce McCarl Nielsen, ed., Feminist Research Methods: Exemplary Readings in the Social Sciences, (Boulder, San Francisco, & London, 1990); Ruth Bleir, ed., Feminist Approaches to Science, (Pergamon Press, 1988); Pamela Abbott and Claire Wallace, An Introduction to Sociology: Feminist Perspectives, (London and New York, Routledge, 1992), particularly chapter 1 (Introduction: the feminist critique of malestream sociology and the way forward) and 9 (The production of feminist knowledge); Zarana Papic, Sociologija i feminizam,(Sociology and Feminism) (IIC SSOS, Belgrade 1989), Jane Butler Kahle, ed., Women in Science,  (Philadelphia and London, The Falmer Press, 1985); Margaret Alic, Hypatia’s Heritage: A History of Women in Science from Antiquity to the Late Nineteenth Century, (London, The Women’s Press, 1990); Cheris Kramarae and Paula A. Treichler, A Feminist Dictionary, (London, Pandora, 1989); Maggie Humm, The Dictionary of Feminist Theory, (London, Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1989).

[18].       Judith A. Cook and Mary Margaret Fonow, “Knowledge and Women’s Interests: Issues of Epistemology and Methodology in Feminist Sociological Research:, in Joyce McCarl Nielsen, editor, Feminist Research Methods, (London, Westview Press, 1990).

[19].       Margrit Eichler, “And the Work Never Ends: Feminist Contributions”,  Canadian Review of Sociology and Anthropology, 22, 1985, pages 619-644, from Liz Stanley, editor, Feminist Praxis: Research, Theory and Epistemology in Feminist Sociology, (London, Routledge, 1990).

[20].       Magrit Eichler, Non-Sexist Research Methods, (London, Allen and Unwin, 1988), from Pamela Abbott and Claire Wallace, An introduction to sociology: feminist perspectives, (London, Routledge, 1992) pages 208-209.

[21]. Kathy E. Ferguson, The Man Question: Visions of Subjectivity in Feminist Theory, (Berkeley, University of California Press, 1993).

[22].       Aminata Traore, “The South: A Joint Struggle”, in The Unesco Courier, September 1995, pages 9 and 11.

[23].       Christopher Dickey, “The Islamic World: Bride, Slave or Warrior”, in Newsweek, September 12, 1994, pages 13-17.

[24].       Zillah R. Eisenstein, The Radical Future of Liberal Feminism (Boston, USA, Northeastern University Press, 1993), page 3.

[25]. Ibid.

[26].       Linda Nicholson, ‘Feminism and the Politics of Postmodernism’, in Margaret Ferguson and Jennifer Wicke, Feminism and Postmodernism, (Durhan and London, Duke University Press, 1994), pages 69-86.

[27].       Patti Lather, Getting Smart, Feminist Research and Pedagogy with/in the Postmodern, (New York, London, Routledge, 1991), page 27.

[28].       Linda Nicholson, ibid., page 76

[29]. Ibid. page 85.

[30]. Fox-Genovese, quoted in Patti Lather, Ibid. page 28.

[31].       Mary Daly, Gyn\Ecology, The Metaethics of Radical Feminism, (Boston, Beacon, 1978, page 1), quote from Zillah R. Eisenstein, The Radical Future of Liberal Feminism (Boston, Northeastern University Press, 1993), page 18.

[32].       Eleonora Masini and Yogesh Atal, eds., The Futures of Asian Cultures, Bangkok, UNESCO, 1993, and Eleonora Masini and Albert Sasson, eds., The Futures of Cultures, Paris, UNESCO 1994.

[33].       Ann Curthoys, “The Three Body Problem: Feminism and Chaos Theory”, Hecate, 17(1), 1991, pages 14-21.

[34].       Donna Haraway, Simians, Cyborgs, and Women: The Reinvention of Nature (New York, Routledge, 1991).

[35].       Anne Applebaum, “The Perils (yawn) of poor Naomi”, The Courier-Mail, Brisbane, Australia, October 18, 1995, page 15

[36].       Riane Eisler, “A Time for Partnership”, in The UNESCO Courier, September 1995, pages 5-7.

[37].       Ashis Nandy, Tyranny, Utopias and Traditions (Delhi, Oxford, 1987) page 13.

[38].       Sandra Harding, The Science Question in Feminism, (Milton Keynes, England, Open University Press, 1986), page 141.

Sarkar’s Theory of Social Change:

Structure and Transcendence

Personal History
Prabhat Rainjan Sarkar was born in May of 1921 in Bihar of an old and respected family that had its roots in regional leadership and in ancient spiritual traditions.  Sarkar’s early life was dominated by fantastic events, spiritual miracles and brushes with death.  He was nearly killed in his early years by a religious sect who believed that Sarkar was destined to destroy their religion (as astrologers had predicted about Sarkar).  Surviving this event and many other similar ones, by the 1950’s he had become a spiritualist with many followers.  In 1955, he founded the socio-spiritual organization Ananda Marga.   Soon after, he articulated a new political-economic theory and social movement called the Progressive Utilization Theory or PROUT.  

Ananda Marga and PROUT grew quickly in the 1960’s and managed to attract opposition from numerous Hindu groups, they believing Sarkar to be an iconoclast because of his opposition to caste (jhat) and his criticism of orthodox schools of Indian philosophy. By the late 1960’s his followers were in key positions in the Indian civil service.  The government argued that it was a politically subversive revolutionary organization and banned civil servants from joining it.  Ananda Marga asserted that it was being harassed because of its opposition to governmental corruption.  

In 1971, Sarkar was accused of murdering his disciples and jailed. Before Sarkar’s eyes his movement was decimated and publically labelled as a terrorist organization.  In 1975 with the onset of the Indian Emergency his organizations were banned and his trial conducted in an atmosphere where defense witnesses were jailed if they spoke for Sarkar. Notwithstanding reports by the International Commission of Jurists and other associations of the partial judicial conditions making it impossible for Sarkar to receive a fair trial, Sarkar was convicted.1  When the Gandhi government was removed, his case was appealed and reversed.  During those difficult years, Sarkar fasted in protest of the trial and the numerous tortures committed by the police and intelligence agencies on his workers and himself.  By the 1980’s his movement grew again expanding to nearly 120 nations.   

Until his death on October 21, 1990 Sarkar remained active in Calcutta composing nearly 5000 songs called Prabhat Samgiit (songs of the new dawn), giving spiritual talks, giving discourses on languages, managing his organizations, and teaching meditation to his numerous disciples, especially his senior monks and nuns, avadhutas and avadhutikas. His most recent project was Ananda Nagar or the City of Bliss and other alternative communities throughout the world.  These communities have been designed with PROUT principles in mind: ecologically conscious, spiritually aware, socially progressive and embedded in the culture of the area.  

THE PERSONAL AND SOCIAL  

Sarkar places the rise, fall and rise of his movement in the same language that he uses to explain aspects of history.  For him, whenever truth is stated in spiritual or material areas of life, there is resistance.  This resistance eventually is destroyed by the very forces it uses to destroy truth.  “Remember, by an unalterable decree of history, the evil forces are destined to meet their doomsday.”2  

For Sarkar movements follow a dialectical path: thesis, antithesis and synthesis.  A movement is born, it is suppressed and oppressed (if it truly challenges the distribution of meanings of power), and if it survives these challenges it will be victorious.  The strength of the movement can be measured by its ability to withstand these challenges.  

Sarkar’s own life and the life of his organizations follow this pattern, although at this point the success of the PROUT movement has yet to be determined.  In our interpretation, it is this mythic language that is also perhaps the best way to understand his theory of history, for it is myth that gives meaning to reality, that makes understandable the moments and monuments of our daily lives and that gives a call to sacrifice the moment so as to create a better tomorrow.  

Sarkar’s universe is the habitat of grand struggles between vidya and avidya: introversion and extroversion, contraction and expansion, compassion and passion.  This duality is an eternal part of the very metaphysic of the physical and social universe.  Unlike the Western model where social history can end with the perfect marketplace or the conflict-free communist state, for the Indian, for Sarkar, social history will always continue.  Only for the individual through spiritual enlightenment can time cease and the “mind” itself (and thus duality) be transcended.   

SARKAR’S LARGER CIVILIZATIONAL PROJECT  

Sarkar’s intent was and is (his organizations continue his work) to create a global spiritual socialist revolution, a renaissance in thought, language, music, art, and culture.  His goal is to infuse individuals with a spiritual presence, the necessary first step in changing the way that we know and order our world.  Unlike the socialists of the past who merely sought to capture state power–forgetting that the economy was global and thus in the long run strengthening the world capitalist system–or the utopian idealists who merely wished for perfect places that could not practically exist or spiritualists who only sought individual transformation at the expense of structural change, Sarkar has a far more comprehensive view of transformation of which his social cycle provides the key structure.  

His theoretical offerings include a range of new approaches to understanding social reality.  His theory of neo-humanism aims to relocate the self from ego (and the pursuit of individual maximization), from family (and the pride of genealogy), from geo-sentiments (attachments to land and nation), from socio-sentiments (attachments to class, race and community) from humanism (man as the center of the universe) to neo-humanism (love and devotion for all, inanimate and animate, beings of the universe).  Paramount here is the construction of self in an ecology of reverence for life, not a modern/secular politics of cynicism.  Spiritual devotion to the universe is ultimately the greatest treasure that humans have; it is this treasure that must be excavated and shared by all living beings.  

Only from this basis can a new universalism emerge which can challenge the national, religious, class sentiments of history. The first step, then, is liberating the intellect from its own boundaries and placing it in an alternative discourse.  Sarkar then seeks to make accessible an alternative way of knowing the world that includes yet steps beyond traditional knowledge points; reason, sense-inference, authority, and intuition.  

The central framework for his neo-humanistic perspective is his Progressive Utilization Theory.  PROUT encompasses Sarkar’s theory of history and change, his theory of leadership and the vanguard of the new world he envisions, as well as his alternative political economy.  

THEORY OF HISTORY  

His theory of history constructs four classes: workers, warriors, intellectuals, and accumulators of capital.  Each class can be perceived not merely as a power configuration, but as a way of knowing the world, as a paradigm, episteme or deep structure, if you will.  In Sarkar’s language this is collective psychology or varna (here, dramatically reinterpreting caste). At the individuals level there is varna mobility, one can change the influence of history and social environment!  At the macro level, each varna comes into power bringing in positive necessary changes, but over time exploits and then dialectically creates the conditions for the next varna.  This cycle continues through history and for Sarkar is indeed an iron law of history, true irrespective of space/time and observer conditions.  It is a law because it has developed historically through evolution and because the cycle represents a universal social structure.  For Sarkar, there have been four historical ways humans have dealt with their physical and social environment:  either by being dominated by it, by dominating it through the body, dominating it through the mind, or dominating it through the environment itself.   

While the parallel to caste is there (shudra, ksattriya, brahmin and vaeshya), Sarkar redefines them locating the four as broader social categories that have historically evolved through interaction with the environment. Moreover, varna for individuals is fluid, one can change one’s varna through education, for example. Caste, on the other hand, developed with the conquest of the local Indians by the Aryans and was later reinscribed by the Vedic priestly classes.3  

Sarkar believes that while the social cycle must always move through these four classes, it is possible to accelerate the stages of history and remove the periods of exploitation.  Thus Sarkar would place the sadvipra, the compassionate servant leader, at the center of the cycle, at the center of society (not necessarily at the center of government).  In his life, Sarkar’s efforts were to create this type of leadership instead of building large bureaucratic organizations. He sought to create a new type of leadership that was humble and could serve, that was courageous and could protect, that was insightful and could learn and teach, and that was innovative and could use wealth–in a word, the sadvipra.  

These leaders would, in effect, attempt to create a permanent revolution of sorts, creating a workers’ revolution when the capitalists begin to move from innovation to commodification, a warriors’ revolution when the workers’ era moves from societal transformation to political anarchy, an intellectual revolution when the warrior era expands too far–becomes overly centralized and stagnates culturally–and an economic revolution when the intellectuals use their normative power to create a universe where knowledge is only available to the select few, favoring non-material production at the expense of material production.  Through the intervention of the sadvipra, Sarkar’s social cycle becomes a spiral: the cycles of the stages remains but one era is transformed into its antithesis when exploitation increases. This leads to the new synthesis and the possibility of social progress within the structural confines of the four basic classes.  Sarkar’s theory allows for a future that while patterned can still dramatically change. For Sarkar, there are long periods of rest and then periods of dramatic social and biological revolution.  Future events such as the coming polar shift, the possible ice age, increased spiritual developments in humans due to various spiritual practices, and the social-economic revolution he envisions may create the possibility for a jump in human consciousness.4   

Sarkar’s theoretical framework is not only spiritual or only concerned with the material world, rather his perspective argues that the real is physical, mental and spiritual.  Concomitantly, the motives for historical change are struggle with the environment (the move from the worker era to the warrior era), struggle with ideas (the move from the warrior to the intellectual), struggle with the environment and ideas (the move from the intellectual era to the capitalist eras) and the spiritual attraction of the Great, the call of the infinite.  Thus physical, mental and spiritual challenges create change.   

Table: Sarkar’s Stages  

Shudra                  Worker                     Dominated by Environment     

Ksattriya               Warrior                     Struggle with and dominates Environment        

Vipra                    Intellectual                 Struggle with and dominates Ideas         

Vaeshya               Capitalist                   Struggle with and dominates Environment/Ideas   

The key to Sarkar’s theory of history, thus, is that there are four structures and four epochs in history.  Each epoch exhibits a certain mentality, a varna.  This varna is similar to the concept of episteme, to paradigm, to ideal type, to class, to stage, to era and a host of other words that have been used to describe stage theory.  Sarkar, himself, alternatively uses varna and collective psychology to describe his basic concept.  Collective psychology reflects group desire, social desire.  There are four basic desire systems.  The four varnas are historically developed.  First the shudra, then the ksattriya, then the vipra, then the vaeshya.  The last era is followed either by a revolution by the shudras or an evolution into the shudra era.   

The order is cyclical, but there are reversals.  A counter evolutionary movement or a more dramatic counter revolution which may throw an era backwards, such as a military ksattriyan leaders wresting power from a vipran-led government.  Both are short-lived in terms of the natural cycle since both move counter to the natural developmental flow.  But in the long run, the order must be followed.  

Significantly–and this is important in terms of developing an exemplary theory of macrohistory–Sarkar does not resort to external variables to explain the transition into the next era.  It is not new technologies that create a new wealthy elite that can control the vipras, rather it is a fault within the viprans themselves.  Moreover, it is not that they did not meet a new challenge, or respond appropriately, as Toynbee would argue.  Rather, Sarkar’s reasoning is closer to Ibn Khaldun’s and other classical philosophers.  They create a privileged ideological world or conquer a material world, use this expansion to take care of their needs, but when changes come, they are unprepared for they themselves have degenerated.  While changes are often technological (new inventions and discoveries of new resources) it is not the significant variable, rather it is the mindset of the vipran, individually and as a class, that leads to their downfall.  

ALTERNATIVE POLITICAL-ECONOMY  

Embedded in his social theory is Sarkar’s alternative political economy.  In this project he designs his ideal theory of value.  For Sarkar there are physical, intellectual and spiritual resources.  Most economic theory privileges the material forgetting the intellectual and especially the infinite spiritual resources available to us.  Secondly, his theory uses as its axial principle the notion of social justice, the notion of actions not for selfish pleasure but for the social good.   

Society is perceived not as an aggregate of self-contained individuals nor as a mass collectivity designed for the commune, but rather as a family moving together on a journey through social time and space.  Within the family model there is hierarchy and there is unity.  Newly created wealth is used to give incentives to those who are actualizing their self, either through physical, intellectual or spiritual labor, and is used to maintain and increase basic needs–food, clothing, housing, education and medical care.  Employment, while guaranteed, still requires effort, since central to Sarkar’s metaphysics is that struggle is the essence of life.  It is challenge that propels humans, collectively and individually, towards new levels of physical wealth, intellectual understanding and spiritual realization.  Sarkar speaks of incentives not in terms of cash, but in terms of resources that can lead to more wealth.   

Finally, Sarkar would place limits on personal income and land holdings for the world physical resources are limited and the universe cannot be owned by any individual since it is nested in a higher consciousness, the Supreme Consciousness.  

THE INDIAN EPISTEME AND THE INDIAN CONSTRUCTION OF HISTORY  

Following the classic Indian episteme, reality has many levels; most ideologies only have accentuated the spiritual (Vedanta) or the material (liberalism), or the individual (capitalism) or the collective (communism), the community (Gandhism), or race (Hitlerism) or the nation (fascism).  Sarkar seeks an alternative balance of self, community, ecology, and globe.  Yet the spiritual is his base.  In his view Consciousness from pure existence transforms to awareness then to succeeding material factors (the Big Bang onwards) until it becomes matter.  From matter, there is dialectical evolution to humans.  Humans, finally, can devolve back to the inanimate or evolve as co-creators with consciousness.  For humans, there is structure and choice, nature and will. There is both creation and there is evolution.  With this epistemic background, we should then not be surprised at his dual interests in the material and spiritual worlds and their dynamic balance.  

Placing Sarkar in an alternative construction of the real is central to understanding his social theory.  Every macrohistorian and thinker who creates a new discourse evokes the universal and the transcendental, but their grand efforts also spring from the dust and the mud of the mundane.  They are born in particular places and they die in locatable sites as well.  Sarkar writes from India, writes from the poverty that is Calcutta.  The centrality of the cycle then can partially be understood by its physical location.  The cycle promises a better future ahead; it promises that the powerful will be made weak and the weak powerful, the rich will be humbled and the poor enabled.  The cycle also comes directly from the classic Indian episteme.  In this ordering of knowledge, the real has many levels and is thus pluralistic; the inner mental world is isomorphic with the external material world, there are numerous ways of knowing the real, and time is grand.  According to Romila Thapar, “Hindu thinkers had evolved a cyclic theory of time.  The cycle was called the kalpa and was equivalent to 4320 million earthly years.  The kalpa is divided into 14 periods and at the end of each of these the universe is recreated and once again Manu (primeval man) gives birth to the human race.”5  

In this classical model (ascribed to the Gita) the universe is created, it degenerates, and then is recreated.  The pattern is eternal.  This pattern has clear phases; the golden era of Krta or Satya, the silver era of Treta, the copper era of Dvapara and the iron age of Kali.  At the end of Kali, however, the great redeemer whether Vishnu or Shiva or Krishna, is reborn, the universe is realigned, dharma or truth is restored, and the cycle begins again.   

Now is there a way out?  An escape from the cycle? Classically it has been through an alchemical ontological transformation of the self: the self realizing its real nature and thus achieving timelessness–the archetype of the yogi.  Concretely, in social reality this has meant the transformation of a person engrossed in fear to a mental state where nothing is feared, neither king nor priest; all are embraced, lust and greed are transcended and individual inner peace is achieved.  To this archetype, Sarkar has added a collective level asserting that individual liberation must exist in parallel and in the context of social liberation.  Spirituality is impossible in the context of the social body suffering in pain.  For him the world has a 6  defective social order…. this state of affairs cannot be allowed to continue.  This structure of inequality and injustice must be destroyed and powdered down for the collective interest of the human beings.  Then and then alone, humans may be able to lead the society on the past of virtue.  Without that only a handful of persons can possibly attain the Supreme Perfection. 

But Sarkar too uses the redeemer concept to provide the way out of cyclical history.  This is his taraka brahma.  The first was Shiva who transformed the chaos of primitive life to the orderliness of humanity. Next was Krishna who restored the notion of national community.  And, for Sarkar, another redeemer is needed to transform the fragmented nation-states into a world community.  However, paradoxically the concept of the redeemer for Sarkar is  also metaphorical: it is meant to elicit devotion by making the impersonal nature of Consciousness touchable in the form of a personal guru.  

Sarkar thus develops ways out of the cycle: individual and social. In contrast Orientalist interpreters like Mircea Eliade believe that the theory of eternal cycles is “invigorating and consoling for man under the terror of history,”as now man knows under which eras he must suffer and he knows that the only escape is spiritual salvation. Sarkar finds this view repugnant, for people suffer differently and differentially in each era, those at the center of power do better than those at the outskirts, laborers always do poorly.  Indeed throughout history different classes do better than other classes, but the elite manage quite well.8   

Oftentimes, some people have lagged behind, exhausted and collapsed on the ground, their hands and knees bruised and their clothes stained with mud.  Such people have been thrown aside with hatred and have become the outcastes of society.  They have been forced to remain isolated from the mainstream of social life.  This is the kind of treatment they have received.  Few have cared enough to lift up those who lagged behind, to help them forward.  

Hope lies not in resignation to but transformation of the cycle–it is here that Sarkar moves away from the classic Hindu model of the real–of caste, fatalism, and mentalism–most likely influenced by fraternal Islamic concepts, liberal notions of individual will, and by Marxist notions of class struggle.   

For Sarkar there are different types of time.  There is cosmic time –the degeneration and regeneration of dharma; there is individual liberation from time through entrance into infinite time; and there is the social level of time wherein the times of exploitation are reduced through social transformation, thus creating a time of dynamic balance–a balance between the physical, social and spiritual.   

This differs significantly from other views of Indian history. In the Idealistic view history is but the play or sport of Consciousness.9  In this view the individual has no agency and suffering is an illusion.  In the dynastic view history is but the succeeding rise and falls of dynasties and kings and queens; it is only the grand that have agency.  In contrast is Aurobindo’s10 interpretation, influenced by Hegel, in which instrumentality is assigned to historical world leaders and to nations.  For Sarkar, making nationalism into a spiritual necessity is an unnecessary reading.  God does not prefer any particular structure over another.  

Following Aurobindo, Buddha Prakash has taken the classic Hindu stages of gold, silver, copper and iron and applied them concretely to modern history.  India, for Prakash, with nation-hood and industrialism has now wakened to a golden age that “reveals the jazz and buzz of a new age of activity.”11  But for Sarkar, the present is not an age of awakening, but an age “where on the basis of various arguments a handful of parasites have gorged themselves on the blood of millions of people, while countless people have been reduced to living skeletons.”12  

Sarkar also rejects the modern linear view of history in which history is divided into ancient (Hindu), medieval (Muslim), and modern (British-nationalistic).  In this view, England is modern and India is backward.  If only India can adopt rational, secular and capitalist or socialist perspectives and institutions, that is, modern policies, it too can join the western world.  India then has to move from prehistorical society–people lost in spiritual fantasy and caste but without state–to modern society.13  Sarkar’s views are closer to Jawaharlal Nehru14 who thought that history is about how humanity overcame challenges and struggled against the elements and inequity.  Sarkar’s views are also similar to the recent “Subaltern”15 project in which the aim is to write history from the view of the dominated classes, not the elite or the colonial. However, unlike the Subaltern project which eschews meta-narratives, Sarkar’s social cycle provides a new grand theory.  

SARKAR’S HISTORIOGRAPHY  

Sarkar’s stages can be used to contextualize Indian history.16  Just as there are four types of mentalities, structures or types, we can construct four types of history.  There is the shudra history, the project of the Subaltern group.  However, their history is not written by the workers themselves but clearly by intellectuals.  There is then ksattriyan history; the history of kings and empires, of nations and conquests, of politics and economics.  This is the history of the State, of great men and women. Most history is vipran history, for most history is written and told by intellectuals, whatever their claims for the groups they represent.  Vipran history is also the philosophy of history: the development of typologies, of categories of thought, of the recital of genealogies, of the search for evidence, of the development of the field of history itself.  This is the attempt to undo the intellectual constructions of others and create one’s own, of asking is there one construction or can there be many constructions? Finally, there is vaeshyan history.  This is the history of wealth, of economic cycles, of the development of the world capitalist system, of the rise of Europe and the fall of India.  Marxist history is unique in that it is written by intellectuals for workers but used by warriors to gain power over merchants.  Sarkar attempts to write a history that includes all four types of power: people’s, military, intellectual and economic.   

For Sarkar, most history is written to validate a particular mentality. Each varna writes a history to glorify its conquests, its philosophical realizations, or its technological breakthroughs, but rarely is history written around the common woman or man. For Sarkar, history should be written about how humans solved challenges.  How prosperity was gained.  “History… should maintain special records of the trials and tribulations which confronted human beings, how those trials and tribulations were overcome, how human beings tackled the numerous obstacles to effect great social development.”17  History then needs to aid in mobilizing people, personally and collectively toward internal exploration and external transformation.  Thus history should be a “resplendent reflection of collective life whose study will be of immense inspiration for future generations.”18 History then is a political asset.  Here Sarkar moves to a poststructural understanding of the true.  Truth is interpretive, not rta (the facts) but satya (that truth which leads to human welfare).  History then should not be placed solely within the empiricist view, but within an interpretive political perspective.  

Sarkar’s own history is meant to show the challenges humans faced: the defeats and the victories.  His history shows how humans were dominated by particular eras, how they struggled and developed new technologies, ideas, and how they realized the atman, the, the eternal self.  It is an attempt to write a history that is true to the victims but does not oppress them again by providing no escape from history, no vision of the future.  His history then is clearly ideological, not in the sense of supporting a particular class, but rather a history that gives weight to all classes yet attempts to move them outside of class, outside of ego and toward neo-humanism.   

CONCLUSION  

History then is the natural evolutionary flow of this cycle.  At every point there are a range of choices; once made the choice becomes a habit, a structure of the collective or group mind.  Each mentality, with an associated leadership class comes into power, makes changes, and administers government but eventually pursues its own class ends and exploits the other groups.  This has continued throughout history.   Sarkar’s unit of analysis begins with all of humanity, it is a history of humanity, but he often refers to countries and nations. The relationship to the previous era is a dialectical one; an era emerges out of the old era. History moves not because of external reasons, although the environment certainly is a factor, but because of internal organic reasons.  Each era gains power–military, normative, economic or chaotic–and then accumulates power until the next group dislodges the previous elite.  The metaphysic behind this movement is, for Sarkar, the wave motion.  There is a rise and then a fall.  In addition, this wave motion is pulsative, that is, the speed of change fluctuates over time.  The driving force for this change is first the dialectical interaction with the environment, second the dialectical interaction in the mind and in ideologies, and third the dialectical interaction between both, ideas and the environment.  But there is also another motivation: this is the attraction toward the Great. The individual attraction toward the Supreme.  This is the ultimate desire that frees humans of all desires.  

While clash, conflict and cohesion with the natural and social environment drives the cycle, it is the attraction to the Great, the infinite, that is the solution or the answer to the problem of history.  It results in progress.  For Sarkar, the cycle must continue, for it is a basic structure in mind, but exploitation is not a necessity.   Through the sadvipra, exploitation can be minimized.  

To conclude, Sarkar’s theory uses the metaphor of the human life cycle and the ancient wheel, that is, technology.  There is the natural and there is human intervention.  There is a structure and there is choice.  It is Sarkar’s theory that provides this intervention; an intervention that for Sarkar will lead to humanity as a whole finally taking its first deep breath of fresh air.  

NOTES  

1.         See Vimala Schneider, The Politics of Prejudice. Denver, Ananda Marga Publications, 1983.  Also see, Tim Anderson, Free Alister, Dunn and Anderson. Sidney, Wild and Wolley, 1985. And, Anandamitra Avadhutika, Tales of Torture. Hong Kong, Ananda Marga Publications, 1981.  

2.         Ananda Marga, Ananda Vaniis. Bangkok, Ananda Marga Publications, 1982.  

3.         For various interpretations of caste in Indian history and politics, see Nicholas Dirks, The Hollow Crown. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1987; Rajni Kothari, Caste in Indian Politics. New Delhi, Orient Longman, 1970; Louis Dumont, Homo Hierarchicus.  Chicago, The University of Chicago Press, 1979; and, Romila Thapar, A History of India. Baltimore, Penguin Books, 1966.  

4.         See Richard Gauthier, “The Greenhouse Effect, Ice Ages and Evolution,” New Renaissance (Vol. 1, No. 3, 1990).  

5.         Romila Thapar, A History of India, 161.  

6.         P. R. Sarkar, Supreme Expression. Vol. II. Netherlands, Nirvikalpa Press, 1978, 16.  

7.         Mircea Eliade, The Myth of the Eternal Return. New Jersey, Princeton University Press, 1971, 118.  

8.         P. R. Sarkar,  The Liberation of Intellect–Neo Humanism. Calcutta, Ananda Marga Publications, 1983.  

9.         Sarvepalli Radhakrishnan, “History: An Idealist’s View.”  K. Satchidananda Murti, ed. Readings. See  K. Satchidananda Murti, “History: A Theist’s View.” K. Satchidananda Murti, ed. Readings.  

10.       Sri Aurobindo,  “The Spirituality and Symmetric Character of Indian Culture,” and “The Triune Reality,” K. Satchidananda Murty, ed. Readings in Indian History, Philosophy and Politics. London. George Allen and Unwin, 1967, p. 361. Also see Vishwanath Prasad Varma. Studies in Hindu Political Thought and its Metaphysical Foundations. Delhi, Motilal Banarsidass, 1974.  

11.       See Buddha Prakash, “The Hindu Philosophy of History.” Journal of the History of Ideas (Vol. 16, No. 4, 1958).  

12.       Shrii Anandamurti, Namah Shivaya Shantaya. Calcutta, Ananda Marga Publications, 1982, 165.  

13.       See Ronald Inden, “Orientalist Constructions of India.” Modern Asian Studies (Vol. 20, No. 3, 1986). See also Edward Said, Orientalism. New York, Vintage Books, 1979.  And, Ashis Nandy, Traditions, Tyranny and Utopias. New Delhi, Oxford University Press, 1987.  

14.       Jawaharlal Nehru, “History: A Scientific Humanist’s View.” K. Satchidananda Murti, ed. Readings.  

15.       Ranajit Guha and Gayatri Chakravorty Spivak, Selected Subaltern Studies. New York, Oxford University Press, 1988.  See also D.D. Kosambit, “A Marxist Interpretation of Indian History.” K. Satchidananda Murty, ed. Readings, 40.  

16.       See also Sabyasachi Bhattacharya and Romila Thapar, eds. Situating Indian History. Delhi, Oxford University Press, 1986.  

17.       P. R. Sarkar. A Few Problems Solved. Vol. 4. trans. Acarya Vijayananda Avadhuta. Calcutta, Ananda Marga Publications, 1987, 64.  

18.       ibid, 66.

CAUSAL LAYERED ANALYSIS: Poststructuralism as method

Causal layered analysis is offered as a new futures research method. It utilityis not in predicting the future but in creating transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures. Causal layered analysis consists of four levels: the litany, social causes, discourse/worldview and myth/metaphor. The challenge is to conduct research that moves up and down these layers of analysis and thus is inclusive of different ways of knowing. © 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved

In the context of using poststructuralism as a research method, this article introduces a new futures research method—causal layered analysis (CLA). Causal layered analysis is concerned less with predicting a particular future and more with opening up the present and past to create alternative futures. It focuses less on the horizontal spatiality of futures—in contrast to techniques such as emerging issues analysis, scenarios and backcasting—and more on the vertical dimension of futures studies, of layers of analysis. Causal layered analysis opens up space for the articulation of constitutive discourses, which can then be shaped as scenarios. Rick Slaughter considers it a paradigmatic method that reveals deep worldview committments behind surface phenomena.1 Writes Slaughter, ‘Causal layered analysis… provides a richer account of what is being studied than the more common empiricist or predictive orientation which merely ’skims the surface’. But because mastery of the different layers calls for critical and hermeneutic skills that originate in the humanities, some futures practitioners may find the method challenging at first.2

This article hopes to reduce the difficulties involved in understanding and using causal layered analysis by providing a methodological perspective to the context of critical futures research, namely, poststructuralism.

Causal layered analysis has been successfully used in a variety of workshops and futures courses in the last six years. It is especially useful in workshops with individuals either of different cultures or different approaches to solving problems. It is best used prior to scenario building as it allows a vertical space for scenarios of different categories. Some of the benefits of CLA are:

  1. Expands the range and richness of scenarios;
  2. When used in a workshop setting, it leads to the inclusion of different ways of knowingamong participants;
  3. Appeals to and can be used by a wider range of individuals as it incorporates nontextual and poetic/artistic expression in the futures process.
  4. Layers participant’s positions (conflicting and harmonious ones);
  5. Moves the debate/discussion beyond the superficial and obvious to the deeper andmarginal;
  6. Allows for a range of transformative actions;
  7. Leads to policy actions that can be informed by alternative layers of analysis;
  8. Reinstates the vertical in social analysis, ie from postmodern relativism to global ethics.

Causal layered analysis can be seen as an effort to use poststructuralism, not just as an epistemological framework—as developed by thinkers such as Michel Foucault—but as a research method, as a way to conduct inquiry into the nature of past, present and future.

Types of futures research

In earlier articles, among other mapping schemes,3 I have divided futures studies into three overlapping research dimensions: empirical, interpretive and critical.4 Each dimension has different assumptions about the nature of reality, truth, the universe, the future and about the role of the subject.5 My own preference has been approaches that use all three—that contextualize data (the predictive) with the meanings (interpretive) we give them, and then locate these in various historical structures of power/knowledge-class, gender, varna6 and episteme (the critical).

Causal layered analysis is well situated in critical futures research.7 This tradition is less concerned with disinterest, as in the empirical, or with creating mutual understanding, as in the interpretive, but with creating distance from current categories. This distance allows us to see current social practices as fragile, as particular, and not as universal categories of thought—they are seen as discourse, a term similar to paradigm but inclusive of epistemological assumptions.

In the poststructural critical approach, the task is not prediction or comparison (as in the interpretive) but one of making units of analysis problematic. The task is not so much to better define the future but rather, at some level, to ‘undefine’ the future. For example, of importance are not population forecasts but how the category of ‘population’ has become historical valorised in discourse; for example, why population instead of community or people, we might ask?

Taking a broader political view, we can also query why population is being predicted anyway? Why are population growth rates more important than levels of consumption? The role of the state and other forms of power such as religious institutions in creating authoritative discourses—in naturalizing certain questions and leaving unproblematic others—is central to understanding how a particular future has become hegemonic. But more than forms of power, are epistemes or structures of knowledge which frame what is knowable and what is not, which define and bind intelligibility. Thus, while structures and institutions such as the modern state are useful tools for analysis, they are seen not as universal but as particular to history, civilization and episteme (the knowledge boundaries that frame our knowing). They too are situated.

The poststructural approach attempts to make problematic trend or events or events given to us in the futures literature and not only to discern their class basis as in conventional neo-Marxian critical research. The issue is not only what are other events/trends that could have been put forth, but how an issue has been constructed as an event or trend in the first place as well as the ‘cost’ of that particular social construction—what paradigm is privileged by the nomination of a trend or event as such.

Using other ways of knowing, particularly categories of knowledge from other civilizations, is one of the most useful ways to create a distance from the present. For example, in our population example, we can query ‘civilization’, asking how do Confucian, Islamic, Pacific or Indic civilizations constitute the population discourse? Scenarios about the future of population become far more problematic since the underlying category of the scenario, in this case population, is contested. At issue is how enumeration—the counting of people—has affected people’s conception of time and relations with self, other and state.8

The goal of critical research is thus to disturb present power relations through making problematic our categories and evoking other places or scenarios of the future. Through this historical, future and civilizational distance, the present becomes less rigid, indeed, it becomes remarkable. This allows the spaces of reality to loosen and the new possibilities, ideas and structures, to emerge. The issue is less what is the truth but how truth functions in particular policy settings, how truth is evoked, who evokes it, how it circulates, and who gains and loses by particular nominations of what is true, real and significant.

In this approach, language is not symbolic but constitutive of reality. This is quite different from the empirical domain wherein language is seen as transparent, merely in a neutral way describing reality, or as in the interpretive, where language is opaque, coloring reality in particular ways. By moving up and down levels of analysis, CLA brings in these different epistemological positions but sorts them out at different levels. The movement up and down is critical otherwise a causal layered analysis will remain only concerned with better categories and not wiser policies. By moving back up to the litany level from the deeper layers of discourse and metaphor, more holistic policies should ideally result.

Central to interpretive and critical approach is the notion of civilizational futures research. Civilizational research makes problematic current categories since they are often based on the dominant civilization (the West in this case). It informs us that behind the level of empirical reality is cultural reality and behind that is worldview.

While the postmodern/poststructural turn in the social sciences has been discussed exhaustively in many places,9 my effort is to simplify these complex social theories and see if poststructuralism can be used as a method, even if it is considered anti-method by strict ‘non-practitioners’.10

The poststructural futures toolbox

The first term in a poststructural futures toolbox is deconstruction. In this we take a text (here meaning anything that can be critiqued—a movie, a book, a worldview, a person— something or someone that can be read) and break apart its components, asking what is visible and what is invisible? Research questions that emerge from this perspective include:

Deconstruction

Who is privileged at the level of knowledge? Who gains at economic, social and other levels? Who is silenced? What is the politics of truth? In terms of futures studies, we ask: which future is privileged? Which assumptions of the future are made preferable?

The second concept is genealogy. This is history; not a continuous history of events and trends, but more a history of paradigms, if you will, of discerning which discourses have been hegemonic and how the term under study has travelled through these various discourses. Thus for Nietzche, it was not so much an issue of what is the moral, but a genealogy of the moral: how and when the moral becomes contentious and through which discourses.

Genealogy

Which discourses have been victorious in constituting the present? How have they travelled through history? What have been the points in which the issue has become present, important or contentious? What might be the genealogies of the future?

The third crucial term is distance. Again, this is to differentiate between the disinterest of empiricism and the mutuality of interpretative research. Distancing provides the theoretical link between poststructural thought and futures studies. Scenarios become not forecasts but images of the possible that critique the present, that make it remarkable, thus allowing other futures to emerge. Distancing can be accomplished by utopias as well— ‘perfect’, ‘no’, or far away places— other spaces.

Distance

Which scenarios make the present remarkable? Make it unfamiliar? Strange? Denaturalize it? Are these scenarios in historical space (the futures that could have been) or in present or future space?

The fourth term is ‘alternative pasts and futures’. While futures studies has focused only on alternative futures, within the poststructural critical framework, just as the future is problematic, so is the past. The past we see as truth is in fact the particular writing of history, often by the victors of history. The questions that flow from this perspective are as below:

Alternative pasts and futures

Which interpretation of past is valorized? What histories make the present problematic? Which vision of the future is used to maintain the present? Which explodes the unity of the present?

The last concept—reordering knowledge—brings a different dimension to the future and is similar to much of the work being done in civilizational futures research.11 Reordering knowledge is similar to deconstruction and genealogy in that it undoes particular categories, however, it focuses particularly on how certain categories such as ‘civilization’ or ‘stages in history’ order knowledge.

Reordering knowledge

How does the ordering of knowledge differ across civilization, gender and episteme? What or Who is othered? How does it denaturalize current orderings, making them peculiar instead of universal?

These five concepts are part of a poststructural futures toolbox. There is a strong link, of course, to other futures methods. Emerging issues analysis,12 for example, at one level predicts issues outside of conventional knowledge categories but it does so by disturbing conventional categories, by making them problematic; it reorders knowledge. For example, the notion of the ‘rights of robots’ forces us to rethink rights, seeing them not as universal but as historical and political, as hard fought political and conceptual battles. It also forces us to rethink intelligence and sentience—posing the question what is life? Thus, a futures method such as emerging issues analysis, conventionally used to identify trends and problems in their emergent phase, should not merely be seen as a predictive method; it can also be a critical one.

A civilizational perspective

From a civilizational perspective, it is crucial to explore the guiding metaphors and myths we use to envision the future. This perspective takes a step back from the actual future to the deeper assumptions about the future being discussed, specifically the ‘non-rational.’ For example, particular scenarios have specific assumptions about the nature of time, rationality and agency. Believing the future is like a roll of dice is quite different from the Arab saying of the future: ‘Trust in Allah but tie your camel’ which differs again from the American vision of the future as unbounded, full of choice and opportunity. For the Confucian, choice and opportunity exist in the context of family and ancestors and not merely as individual decisions.

In workshops on the future outside of the West, conventional metaphors such as a fork in the road, the future as seen through the rearview mirror, or travelling down a rocky stream, rarely make sense. Others from Asia and the Pacific see the future as a tree (organic with roots and with many choices), as a finely weaved carpet (with God as the weaver), as a coconut (hard on the outside, soft on the inside) or as being in a car with a blindfolded driver (loss of control).13

Deconstructing conventional metaphors and then articulating alternative metaphors becomes a powerful way to critique the present and create the possibility of alternative futures. Metaphors and myths not only reveal the deeper civilizational bases for particular futures but they move the creation/understanding of the future beyond rational/design efforts. They return the unconscious and the mythic to our discourses of the future—the dialectics of civilizational trauma and transcendence become episodes that give insight to past, present and future.14

Causal layered analysis includes this metaphorical dimension and links it with other levels of analysis. It takes as its starting point the assumption that there are different levels of reality and ways of knowing. Individuals, organizations and civilizations see the world from different vantage points—horizontal and vertical.

Causal layered analysis

Causal layered analysis is based on the assumption that the way in which one frames a problem changes the policy solution and the actors responsible for creating transformation. Using the works of Rick Slaughter, P.R. Sarkar and Oswald Spengler,15 I argue that futures studies should be seen as layered, as deep and shallow. Its textured richness cannot be reduced to empirical trends.

The first level is the ‘litany’—quantitative trends, problems, often exaggerated, often used for political purposes—(overpopulation, eg) usually presented by the news media. Events, issues and trends are not connected and appear discontinuous. The result is often either a feeling of helplessness (what can I do?) or apathy (nothing can be done!) or projected action (why don’t they, usually meaning the State, do something about it?). This is the conventional level of futures research which can readily create a politics of fear. This is the futurist as fearmonger who warns: ‘the end is near’. However by believing in the prophecy and acting appropriately, the end can be averted.16

The second level is concerned with social causes, including economic, cultural, political and historical factors (rising birthrates, lack of family planning, eg). Interpretation is given to quantitative data. This type of analysis is usually articulated by policy institutes and published as editorial pieces in newspapers or in not-quite academic journals. If one is fortunate then the precipitating action is sometimes analysed (population growth and advances in medicine/health, eg). This level excels at technical explanations as well as academic analysis. The role of the state and other actors and interests is often explored at this level.

The third deeper level is concerned with structure and the discourse/worldview that supports and legitimates it (population growth and civilizational perspectives of family; lack of women’s power; lack of social security; the population/consumption debate, eg.). The task is to find deeper social, linguistic, cultural structures that are actor-invariant (not dependent on who are the actors). Discerning deeper assumptions behind the issue is crucial here as are efforts to revision the problem. At this stage, one can explore how different discourses (the economic, the religious, the cultural, for example) do more than cause or mediate the issue but constitute it, how the discourse we use to understand is complicit in our framing of the issue. Based on the varied discourses, discrete alternative scenarios can be derived here. For example, a scenario of the future of population based on religious perspectives of population (‘go forth and multiply’) versus cultural scenario focused on how women’s groups imagine construct birthing and childraising as well as their roles in patriarchy and the world division of labor. These scenarios add a horizontal dimension to our layered analysis.

The fourth layer of analysis is at the level of metaphor or myth. These are the deep stories, the collective archetypes, the unconscious dimensions of the problem or the paradox (seeing population as non-statistical, as community, or seeing people as creative resources, e.g.). This level provides a gut/emotional level experience to the worldview under inquiry. The language used is less specific, more concerned with evoking visual images, with touching the heart instead of reading the head.

Causal layered analysis asks us to go beyond conventional framings of issues. For instance, normal academic analysis tends to stay in the second layer with occasional forays into the third, seldom privileging the fourth layer (myth and metaphor). CLA however, does not privilege a particular level. Moving up and down layers we can integrate analysis and synthesis, and horizontally we can integrate discourses, ways of knowing and worldviews, thereby increasing the richness of the analysis. What often results are differences that can be easily captured in alternative scenarios; each scenario in itself, to some extent, can represent a different way of knowing. However, CLA orders the scenarios in vertical space. For example, taking the issue of parking spaces in urban centers can lead to a range of scenarios. A short term scenario of increasing parking spaces (building below or above) is of a different order than a scenario which examines telecommuting or a scenario which distributes spaces by lottery (instead of by power or wealth) or one which questions the role of the car in modernity (a carless city?) or deconstructs the idea of a parking space, as in many third world settings where there are few spaces designated ‘parking’.17

Scenarios, thus, are different at each level. Litany type scenarios are more instrumental, social level scenarios are more policy oriented, and discourse/worldview scenarios intend on capturing fundamental differences. Myth/metaphor type scenarios are equally discrete but articulate this difference through a poem, a story, an image or some other right-brain method.

Finally, who solves the problem/issue also changes at each level. At the litany level, it is usually others—the government or corporations. At the social level, it is often some partnership between different groups. At the worldview level, it is people or voluntary associations, and at the myth/metaphor it is leaders or artists.

These four layers are indicative, that is, there is some overlap between the layers. Using CLA on CLA we can see how the current litany (of what are the main trends and problems facing the world) in itself is the tip of the iceberg, an expression of a particular worldview.18 Debating which particular ideas should fit where defeats the purpose of the layers. They are intended to help create new types of thinking not enter into debates on what goes precisely where.

What follow are five case studies which illustrate CLA. The first is a theoretical case study and the rest are from workshops held in Asia and Australia.19

Case studies

The futures of the United Nations

If we take the futures of the United Nations as an issue, at the litany level, of concern is news on the failure of the United Nations (the UN’s financial problems and its failures in Bosnia, Somalia and Rwanda).

Causes, at the second level in the UN example, include lack of supranational authority; no united military, and the perspective that the UN is only as good as its member nations. The solutions that result from this level of analysis are often those that call for more funding or more centralised power. In this case, the UN needs more money and power. Often, deeper historical reasons such as the creation of the UN by the victors of WW II are articulated as factors impeding structural change.

At the third level, the analysis of current UN problems then shifts from the unequal structure of power between UN member states to the fact that eligibility for membership in the UN is based on acquiring national status. An NGO, an individual, a culture cannot join the National Assembly or the Security Council. Deeper social structures that are actor-invarient include centre-periphery relations and the anarchic inter-state system. They are the focus at this level. The solution that emerges from this level of analysis is to rethink the values and structure behind the United Nations, to revision it. Do we need a superordinate authority or are market mechanisms enough to manage our global commons? One could at this level, develop a horizontal discursive dimension investigating how different paradigms or worldviews frame the problem or issue. How would a pre-modern world approach the issue of global governance (consensus, for example)? How might a post-modern (global electronic democracy)?

At the fourth layer of myth and metaphor, in the case of the UN, some factors that could lead to an exploration of alternative metaphors and myths include issues of control versus freedom, of the role of individual and collective, of family and self, of the overall governance of evolution, of humanity’s place on the Earth. Are we meant to be separate races and nations (as ordained by the myths of the Western religions) or is a united humanity (as the Hopi Indians and others have prophesied) our destiny? At the visual level, the challenge would be to design another logo for the UN, perhaps a tree of life or a circle of beings (instead of just flags of nations as currently outside the UN headquarters).

UNESCO/World Futures Studies Federation course

While the previous example was logically derived, the following are based on actual futures—visioning workshops. A CLA was conducted at a 1993 UNESCO/World Futures Studies Federation workshop in Thailand on the futures of ecology, where the issue of Bangkok’s traffic problem was explored. Here were the results.

At the litany level, the problem was seen to be Bangkok’s traffic and related pollution. The solution was to hire consultants particularly transportation planners at local and international levels.

At the social cause level, the problem was seen as a lack of roads with the solution that of building more roads (and getting mobile phones in the meantime). If one was doing scenarios at this stage, then there would be scenarios on where to build roads, which transportation modelling software to use.

At the worldview level, it was argued that the problem was not just lack of roads but the model of industrial growth Thailand has taken. It is the big City Outlook that had come down through colonialism. The city is better and rural people are idiots. Wealth is in the city especially as population growth creates problems in the rural area. The solution then becomes not to build more roads but to decentralize the economy and create localism ie where local people control their economy and feel they do not have to leave their life and lifestyle. Psychologically it means valuing local traditions and countering the ideology that West is best and that Bigger is Better. New leadership and new metaphors—from the fourth level—on what it means to be Thai (valuing local selfreliance, agricultural and Thailand’s pluralistic cultural traditions) emerged as the solutions.

Faculty of Work, Education and Training, Southern Cross University, Australia

When used at a seminar to the Faculty of Education, Work and Training at Southern Cross University in 1994 on the future of enrolments, the results were as follows.

At the litany level, the problem facing the University was declining enrolments. University professors saw it as an external problem. It was believed that the government should do something about it, for example, increase the number of scholarships.

At the social level, a range of alternative positions were explored. Among them that the faculty was too busy doing research, that there was a job boom and students preferred to work rather than sit in institutions. It could also be that the pool of students had declined, suggested participants. The solutions that result from this level of analysis are often those that call for more research to investigate the problem—or to create a partnership with industry. A precipitating action in this case study was the changeover in government from Labor to Liberal, with the government seeing education less as a social concern and more in economic terms.

At the next level, we explore how different discourses (the economic, the social, the cultural) do more than cause the issue but constitute it, that the discourse we use to understand is complicit in our framing of the issue. At this third level, participants discussed how conventional education no longer fits the job market and students’ experience of the world that they might get from community associations or high-tech TV. The solution that emerged from this level was the need to rethink the values and the structure of the educational institution, to revision it—quite different from the litany level where the issue was more student aid or different than the second level where the solution was partnerships between the university, government and industry.

At this level, one could develop a horizontal discursive dimension investigating how different paradigms or worldviews (and related ways of knowing) would frame the problem or issue. How would a premodern world approach the issue of teaching and learning?20 How might a postmodern?21

At the fourth level of myth and metaphor, issues that arose are: does schooling free us or is it merely social control? Should education still be based on the Newtonian Fordist model of the factory or is education about transcendence, the return to mission, the reenchantment of the world? At this level, the challenge is to elicit the root myth or metaphor that supports the foundation of a particular litany of issues. In this case, the metaphors used were that of the university as prison versus that the university as a garden of knowledge. This latter root metaphor was then used to aid in the visioning process, of imagining and creating futures participants desire.

Senior management, Southern Cross University

Later at the same university but at a workshop with senior management, the issue again was financial, this time a drop in funding for education from government. The solution that emerged from the social analysis (focusing on the history of the state and education) was to diversify the funding source, to ask where else can we get money. This is in contrast to the litany level where the focus was on how to convince the government not to change its policy or to hope that the Labor government would once again be elected. At the discourse/worldview level, discussions revolved around the changing nature of education—on the decreasing importance of traditional education, and increased emphasis on skills for a global economy. It was the change in worldview from knowledge as sacred, the idea of the scholar, and the idea of the scientist, to that of the education to create better skilled workers in a global competitive marketplace that became the focus of discussion. It was believed that it would have to be people that lobbied the government to rethink its educational policy, not just universities. At the last level, the issue became that of rethinking money and exchange as well as finding other ways to manage and fund a university.

Of all the many causal layered analyses done, this was the most difficult and least satisfying, largely because it was hard to see money in layered terms. It was nearly impossible to move outside the administrative—capitalist discourse—the jobs and futures of all in the rooms depended on that discourse. In this sense, spending more time on emerging issues that might change the funding nature of the university (or on what-if questions) might have been a better approach. Still, some important scenarios were developed from the analysis: (1) the collapse of the university system in Australia; (2) a corporate/industry aligned university, (3) a virtual university (expanding its customers and reducing its overhead) and (4) a return to core enlightenment values. These helped clarify the alternative futures ahead as well gain consensus on the preferred vision held by participants (a mix of a virtual university and core enlightnment values).

Queensland Advocacy Incorporated

The final case study was a seminar conducted on the Queensland Advocacy Incorporated, Australia, a systems advocacy organization for people with disability. The broad issue under discussion was the practice of housing people with disabilities in institutions. At the litany level, the issue was framed as abuse and neglect within institutions. The solution by the state is often prosecution of offenders and the creation of better institutions for those with disabilities, said participants. The locus of action has been government with the media providing images of positive actions the state is doing for people with disabilities.

At the social causes level, it has been the anxiety and frustration resulting from an imbalance of power within institutional settings that has been the key issue facing the disabled. The solution is thus focused on the individual rather than the social structure, taking the form of therapy for individuals with professionals providing the solution.

At the worldview level, it is fear of difference and individualism that is the central problem. People with disability are ‘othered’, seen as separate from ‘normal’ communities. At this level, the solution offered was consciousness raising, a softening of individualism and a strengthening of community. The actors who could make this change are people with disabilities themselves—particularly through their various organizations.

Finally, at the myth and metaphor level, it is the story of inclusion/exclusion, of who is normal and who is abnormal that was paramount, said participants. The negative story is that of the cyclops— the image of the one fundamentally different from us and thus to be feared and loathed.

The scenarios that resulted were: (1) society changes so that people with disability feel welcome, (2) genetic technology eliminates ‘disabilities’—a negative scenario for people with disability since this continues the location of their body in the space of nonacceptance; and (3) continued ghettoization with occasional feel good media-led campaigns.

Difference as method

While there are other examples, hopefully, the above give an indication of the possible beneficial uses of CLA. The utility of causal layered analysis is that it can categorize the many different perceptions of realities while remaining sensitive to horizontal and vertical spaces. Often individuals write and speak from differing perspectives. Some are more economistic, others are concerned with the big picture; some want real practical institutional solutions, others want changes in consciousness.22 CLA endeavors to find space for all of them.

Causal layered analysis allows for research that brings in many perspectives. It has a fact basis, which is framed in history, which is then contextualized within a discourse or worldview, which then is located in pre and post-rational ways of knowing, in myth and metaphor. The challenge is to bring in these many perspectives to a particular problem, to go up and down levels, and sideways through varied scenarios.

Like all methods, CLA has its limits. For example, it does not forecast the future per se and is best used in the conjunction with other methods such as emerging issues analysis and visioning. It can lead to a paralysis of action ie too much time could be spent on problematizing and not enough on designing new policy actions. Individuals might find themselves speculating on layer upon layer of meaning (as they can with scenarios, creating endless scenarios, instead of focusing on the plausible, probable or preferred) instead of focusing on the actors that hold particular worldview commitments and the structures and epistemes they inhabit.

For newcomers to the futures field, it may dampen their inner creativity, since it categorizes reality instead of allowing for a free for all visioning. For others, it is too difficult. This is especially so for empiricists who see the world as either true or false (who insist on being right instead being located in layers of reality, who reject that there are deeper levels embedded in their litany) or postmodern relativists who reject the vertical gaze CLA implies, who insist that there are not layers of meaning but just different equal spaces, all horizontally situated.

These limitations can best be overcome by moving up and down layers of inquiry, by not getting bogged down by the demands of any ideological perspective. CLA endeavors to find space for these different perspectives. It does not reject the empirical or the ideational but considers them both along a continuum. In this sense CLA, while part of the poststructural critical tradition, is very much oriented toward action learning. Answers are neither right nor wrong. Rather a dialogue between the different levels is sought. Interaction is critical here. By moving up and down levels and sideways through scenarios, different sorts of policy outcomes are possible and discourse/worldviews as well as metaphors and myths are enriched by these new empirical realities.

Of course, if at a workshop, a discussion does not fit into our neat categories of litany, social causes, worldview and metaphor and root myth, it is important to work with the individuals to create new categories. However, in general, these categories work because they capture how we think and categorize the world.

Causal layered analysis is best used with other methods such as visioning which can help create preferred futures, emerging issues analysis, which can help challenge our conventional views—shallow and deep—of reality, and backcasting, which can help generate a plan of action.

Causal layered analysis provides a method in which one can explore levels of responses, decolonise dominant visions of the future and create authentic—that are sensitive to the different ways women and men, civilisations, class, people with disabilities and those without (among other categories) know the world—alternative futures. CLA helps in creating a distance from the present, in deconstructing particular futures, exploring alternative orderings or knowledge, and genealogies of the present and the future. It does not however forecast the future, but perhaps, neither should futures studies.

Acknowledgements

I am grateful to Rick Slaughter, Jennifer Fitzgerald and Paul Wildman for editing earlier drafts. In addition thanks to Paul Wildman for his assistance during futures workshops at Southern Cross University and to Jennifer Fitzgerald for her assistance at workshops with Queensland Advocacy Incorporated. I would also like to thank Tony Stevenson—with whom I first presented CLA at World Futures Studies Federation course in Bangkok, Thailand, 1993—for creating an environment at the Communication Centre where eclectic methodologies could flourish.

Notes and references

  1. Slaughter, Rick, Developing and Applying Strategic Foresight, The ABN Report 5(10), 7–15 (December 1997).
  2. See, for example, Linstone, Harold, What I have Learned: The Need for Multiple Perspectives, Futures Research Quarterly, Spring 1985, 47–61. He divides futures into the technical, organizational and personal. Also see, Masini, Eleonora and Gillwald, Karin On Futures Studies and Their Social Context with Particular Focus on West Germany, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 38, 187–199 (1990). They take Linstone’s model and apply it historically to Europe and the US, seeing futures as going through technical, organizational and personal phases. See also, Sardar, Zia, Colonizing the future: the ’other’ dimension of futures studies, Futures 25(2), 179–187 (March 1993). Sardar argues for a colonization/decolonization dialectic. The classic map of futures studies remains Roy Amara’s division into preferred, possible and probable. See his, Amara, Roy, The Futures Field, The Futurist, February, April and June 1981. See also, Bezold, Clement and Hancock, Trevor, An Overview of the Health Futures Field. Institute for Alternative Futures, Washington DC, 1993. 29 pages. Bezold adds the plausible to Amara’s three categories. For a compendium with articles on methods by Schultz, Masini, Bezold, Slaughter, Sardar, Boulding, Milojevic and many others, see Inayatullah, Sohail and Wildman, Paul, Futures Studies: Methods, Emerging Issues and Civilisational Visions (A MultiMedia CD-ROM Reader), Prosperity Press, Brisbane, 1998.
  3. Ibid., 11.
  4. Inayatull, Sohail, Deconstructing and Reconstructing the Future: Predictive, Cultural and Critical Epistemologies, Futures, 22(2), 115–141 (March 1990).
  5. Inayatullah, Sohail, From Who am I to When am I?: Framing the Time and Shape of the Future, Futures, 25(3), 235–253 (April 1993).
  6. Caste.
  7. For the classical treatment of this, see Slaughter, Richard, Towards a Critical Futurism, World Future Society Bulletin, July/August and September/October 1984 and Schultz, Wendy, Silences, Shadows, Reflections on Futures. In Who Cares? And How? Futures of Caring Societies, eds Jim Dator and Maria Roulstone. World Futures Studies Federation, Honolulu, 1988. Rick Slaughter writes that critical futures study is itself an approach to futures questions that arises from a deep understanding of the dysfunctions of the Western worldview. This can seem threatening to those whose professional interests are bound up with… the industrial growth ideology. But, in fact, the analysis of dysfunctions at this deep level is only a ground-clearing exercise. Beyond this the task of exploring new domains of cultural possibility and potential. See Richard Slaughter, Developing and Applying Strategic Foresight, The ABN Report, 5(10), 11 (December 1997).
  8. See, Ray, Manas, India, Fifty Years On: Revisiting Modernity, research paper, School of Media and Journalism, Queensland University of Technology, Research paper quoting Kaviraj, Sudipto, Religion and Identity in India, Ethnic and Racial Studies, 20(2), 331 (1997).
  9. For the best discussion, See Shapiro, Michael, Reading the Postmodern Polity, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, 1992. What makes the poststructural approach to research different is that whereas the general tendency of critical theory is toward a critique of ideology, based on the presumption of an authentic model of intelligibility, the genealogical imagination construes all systems of intelligibility as false arrests, as the arbitrary fixings of the momentary results of struggles among contending forces, struggles that could have produced other possible systems of intelligibility and the orders they support…. Rather than presuming an underlying system of order… [genealogy and other poststructural modes of inquiry] assume[s]… that every interpretation of the order is an arbitrary imposition…. There is no natural limit summoning the process of inquiry.(2) Others take a different approach, removing postmodernism from its Nietzschean traces and asserting that it is post-modern, that is, explicit statements about what can and should occur after modernity. See Griffen, David Ray, The Reenchantment of Science and Spirituality and Society: Postmodern Visions, State University of New York Press, Albany, 1988. In contrast, Zia Sardar takes a critical approach to postmodernity. In Sardar, Zia, Postmodernism and the Other: The New Imperialism of Western Culture, Pluto, London, 1998, Sardar, citing Zygmunt Bauman and Eric Hobsbawm, argues that postmodernism, unlike modernity, embraces, evil, 45. Since moral reality is totally relativised—all judgements are merely expressions of alternative discourses—any particular position carries the weight of any other position. What this perspective misses are the efforts of Michel Foucault and others who have argued that the question of the price of a political position cannot be removed from poststructural inquiry. Moreover, the issue of who gains and loses is not framed only in a limited class sense but also in the sense of which knowledge commitments, which worldviews, which definitions of reality remain naturalised and which are contested. For more on this see, Nandy Ashis, Futures Dissents in Sardar, Zia, Rescuing All Our Futures: The Futures of Futures Studies, Twickenham, Adamantine, 1998. Like Foucault, Shapiro’s intention is to reveal the circulation of power, to lay it bare. Causal layered analysis presents a model of inquiry which systematizes such an effort. However, given that postmodernity now comes to us as an extension of modernity, it is not surprising that what is embraced is total relativism and not the unveiling of layers of meaning, of politics.
  10. Postmodernists would reject the idea that deconstruction etc should be seen as a method. It is considered an anti-method, focused on problematizing not on providing recipes for policy. Moreover, there are no practitioners of postmodernity, if at all, the episteme of postmodernity practices on us.
  11. See, for example, the works of Ashis Nandy and Zia Sardar. Short essays by these two can be found in Futures. Ashis Nandy, Bearing Witness to the Future, Futures, 28(6/7) (1996), and Zia Sardar, Natural Born Futurist, Futures, 28(6/7) (1996). Also see the special issue of Futures on Futures generations thinking, which takes a Confucian approach to futures studies, Futures, 29(8) (October 1997).
  12. Emerging issues analysis is a method which identifies issues before they reach the trend or problem phase. It makes the assumption that issues follow an s-pattern growth curve from emerging to trend to problem. For more on this method, see the path breaking work of Graham T.T. Molitor, Public Policy Forecasting, 9208 Wooden Bridge Road, Potomac, Maryland 20854, USA.
  13. See, Sohail Inayatullah, The Futures of Communication, Futures (with Samar Ihsan and Levi Obijiofor), 27(8), 897–904 (October 1995), and Sohail Inayatullah, Futures Visions of Southeast Asia: Some Early Warning Signals, Futures, 27(6), 681–688 (July/August, 1995).
  14. Johan Galtung, Enactment of a Universal Drama-Ethnic Conflicts, New Renaissance, 7(1), 13–15 (1996).
  15. See Richard Slaughter 1989, Probing Beneath the Surface, Futures, 454 (October 1989), (Slaughter offers the brilliant idea of different types of futures studies from the litany-based to the epistemological-based. Indeed, it was Slaughter’s presentation at the World Futures Studies Federation conference in Budapest in 1990 that I noticed that his division of futures studies into levels was more than a typology but a potential method). Sarkar, P.R. (Shrii Shrii Anandamurti), Discourses on Tantra–vol. 1 and 2, Ananda Marga Publications, Calcutta, 1992 (Borrowing from Tantra, Sarkar argues that the individual mind is composed of layers. The first layer is the body, then the conscious mind followed by three layers of superconscious mind). Also see, Inayatullah, Sohail Oswald Spengler: The Rise and Fall of Cultures in Galtung, Johan and Inayatullah, Sohail Inayatullah, eds., Macrohistory and Macrohistorians, Praeger, Westport, CT. and London, 1997 (Spengler argues that reality should be seen as deep and shallow, not as truth or false).
  16. The Club of Rome’s Limits to Growth and other studies is a modern example of this.
  17. In Pakistan, for example, parking spaces are rare—parking as a regulatory discourse is not active there.
  18. Most policy thus merely reinscribes the modern capitalist worldview. However, by noticing how a particularly litany is shaped by a particularly worldview, this allows us to enter alternative worldviews and articulate different policy statements based on them. At the same time, CLA in itself is part of a worldview—one committed to methodological eclecticism but in the framework of a layered, post-postmodern view of reality. It thus not only challenges the totalizing nature of the empirical paradigm (to use Paul Wildman’s phrase) but as well the horizontal relativism of postmodernism.
  19. As a new method, there are limits to the number of case studies that can be drawn upon. I have also used CLA at a World Futures Studies Federation, Centre Catalan de Prospectiva, government of Andorra and UNESCO course on the futures of communication. See, Ihsan Samar, Inayatullah, Sohail and Obijiofor, Levi, The Futures of Communication, Futures, 27(8), 897–903 (1995). Paul Wildman has used the method at workshops for the Singapore Civil Service.
  20. Perhaps: community learning, through more spiritual approaches that revive the ideas of initiation into meaning and culture systems that current educational institutions lack, wherein merely an application form suffices.
  21. Perhaps: Focused on distant learning or interactive learning where boundaries between student and teacher, text and context disappeared.
  22. For an exploration of these differences, see Paul Wildman and Sohail Inayatullah, Ways of knowing, culture, communication and the pedagogies of the future, Futures, 28(8), 723–741 (October 1997).

Appendix

Causal layered analysis

The table below offers a systematic presentation of CLA as a method. It can be easily used as an overhead transparency.

Context

  • How one frames the problem, creates the solution
  • Language is not neutral but part of the analysis
  • Wisest inquiry goes up and down levels of analysis and across constitutive discourses

Horizontal levels

  • Identification of Problem (what is the problem)
  • Associated Solution (what is the solution)
  • Associated Problem-Solver (who can solve it)
  • Source of Information of problem (where is the problem/solution textualized)

Vertical levels

  • The ‘Litany’ official public description of issue
  • Problem seems unsolvable or it is up to government or power to solve it
  • Little personal responsibility
  • Often appearing as News. Mediated by interstate system and conventional accounts of reality. Short term approaches. Government solves the problem.
  • Social Science analysis

Short term historical factors uncovered

Attempts to articulate causal variables (correlation, causation, theory and critique of other theories)

Often State or monopolistic interest group has ownership

Solution often in Civil society in interaction with other institutions (values with structures)—partnerships.

Often appearing as Op-Ed piece or in a conservative journal

  • I Discourse analysis/Worldview

Problem constituted by frame of analysis

Strong focus on the genealogy of a problem

Many frames: paradigms, mindscapes, discourses

Solution often in consciousness transformation, in changing worldview, in rethinking politics of reality.

Solution long term action based on the interaction of many variables Often appearing in fringe/peripheral journals

  • Myth/metaphor analysis

Problem constituted by core myth (unconscious structures of difference, basic binary patterns)

Solution is to uncover myth and imagine alternative metaphors

Often appearing in the work of artists and visions of mystics

Solution can rarely be rationally designed

CLA, ASIA 2038, and Futures. Interview by Louis Zheng (2020). In Mandarin.

从“⼼”改变未来|对话未来 04 Sohail Inayatullah(上篇)

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新冠疫情不是⿊天鹅!|对话未来 04 Sohail Inayatullah(下篇)

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上篇

从“心”改变未来|对话未来 An interview with Sohail Inayatullah

15岁受到未来学家阿尔文·托夫勒的影响关注未来,

40年前就开始研究人工智能未来趋势和机器人权益,

成为联合国教科文组织中的首位未来学教席,

与亚太17国政府高层探讨国际和地域未来发展,

开创了未来学研究理论的CLA模型,被学术和商界广泛采用….

这一次,我们对话未来的嘉宾是全球知名未来学家Sohail Inayatullah教授。

Sohail Inayatullah教授是全球知名未来学家、政治学家、 联合国教科文组织首位未来学教席(UNESCO Chair In Futures Studies)Causal-Layers Analysis (CLA)理论奠基人。被Shaping Tomorrow Foresight Network授予未来学家终身成就劳伦斯桂冠奖。主笔或参与编辑的书籍多达35本,他的内容曾被收录到《麦克米伦未来大百科》中。

2019年9月,我们受到未来学家Sohail Inayatullah教授的邀请,参加在泰国曼谷举办的亚太未来学联盟大会APFN( Asia-Pacific Futurist Network),并发表主题演讲《中国年轻人眼中的未来》 

APFN是Sohail教授发起并推动的一个国际联盟,专门促进国际组织、政府部门、企业和非营利组织中的未来学家,对未来议题展开前沿探讨以及方法论的切磋交流。正因为这样的机缘,我们独家采访了Sohail教授。

未来学家俱乐部的三位发起人和Sohail教授在大会现场的合影

新年伊始,我们将通过分享Sohail教授的洞见,为你照亮通向新一年的未来路径。

 或许你会好奇:

  • 什么是未来学家?何为联合国教科文组织未来学教席?
  • 是什么促使他在1983年撰写人工智能和机器人权益的论文?
  • 40年来推动未来学发展和商业战略远见的持续动力是什么?
  • 如何看待未来学家经常面临的误解和质疑?
  • 成为未来学家,需要有哪些好习惯?

FC(未来学家俱乐部):首先,您对未来学家的定义是什么?您会称呼自己是未来学家吗?

SI (Sohail Inayatullah教授):“未来学家”有诸多的定义。一种广义的观点是,每个人都是未来学家,因为我们都对思考和预判明天。狭义上,未来学家特指那些具备未来学理论和实践的人,更符合我个人的定位。我一共出版了三十多本关于未来学理论的书以及相关的期刊。在战略远见的实践方面,我的目标是让人们更清晰地思考他们想要的未来。当房间里有人开始争论,我从不点评谁对未来的预判是对或错的,因为那不是我该做的,我们作为未来学家的角色更多是以问题启发的形式让参与者学会质疑已有的假设,从而找到一个长期的、共益的未来方向。从这个维度上看,我肯定会把自己称为未来学家。当然,我鼓励大家去掌握双重知识。如果设计是你的专长,那么你可以成为设计师兼未来学家;如果你是个工程师,你可以成为工程师兼未来学家,这并不是一个二选一的问题。

FC:在您的个人介绍中,我们注意到联合国教科文组织未来学教席,如何理解这一职务?

SI 联合国科教文组织为了在全球范围内推广和普及各个学科的相关知识,而设立了教席一职。每个学科的教席则负责统筹这些知识。我作为未来学教席,重点负责包括中国、韩国、日本、澳大利亚、美国夏威夷和东南亚等亚太国家和地区。前段时间刚好亚洲发展银行邀请我作为顾问,到北京为政府部门提供未来教育有关的战略共创工作坊。参与者们都希望推动体制教育的创新,他们使用的比喻令我印象深刻,这也是我在2019年最棒的经历之一。

图片来源:UNESCO官网

FC:以未来学家和未来学教席的双重身份,您的主要工作是什么?

SI如果用植树打个比方,在第一阶段,当我刚获得博士学位、成为这一方面的专业人士时,我做的事主要是“播种”。我在布里斯班(澳大利亚)、曼谷(泰国)以及新加坡等不同国家和地区都播下了未来学的种子。接下来,第二阶段做的事是培育小树,我会一遍又一遍的回到这些地方,并且发展不同国际组织和政府部门的战略远见能力,比如,国际执法组织、城市规划、司法、生物安全部门、火灾和紧急服务部门等。最初的种子发芽变成了小树,许多人都成为在战略远见和创新领域的先锋。这些小树的茁壮成长源于持续不断的研讨交流和实践,以及像亚太未来学联盟(APFN)这样的支持系统。到了第三阶段,我的使命是创造一片森林。既然是森林,我不再需要关注谁是森林里最拔尖、最聪明的树,但是我们仍要保证这个森林不会受到破坏。对我来说,我的终极目标是让这片森林一直生机盎然。有的树是小树,就和你们一样;有的树是年长一点的大树。而我需要做的是确保所有人都有充足的水源,给他们灵感、知识、拓展的视角以及一个不断在实践的社群组织。

今年的APFN大会主题为“共享繁荣2030”,将在9月于马来西亚举办。(图片来源:MyForesight)

FC:您是如何开启未来学研究生涯的?可否跟我们分享一下您的个人故事?

SI我个人的成长足迹遍布世界各地,从巴基斯坦、印第安纳、纽约、马来西亚、曼谷,一直到夏威夷,这些经历让我目睹了地域文化有其狭隘的一面,人们只认同他们自己的价值观。而我很幸运自己从小有机会见识如此多元的价值观。很快,我就意识到如果想要一个更好的未来,我不能只沉浸在一种文化价值体系中。我还意识到,许多问题不是只有小小的改变就能解决的,我们需要在整个系统上解决问题。我17岁那年在夏威夷大学上过Jim Dator的未来学课程。当时听到了机器人学、社会变迁及相关理论,这些改变了我思考世界和理解未来的方式。后来,我本科主要学习社会变迁,然后硕士是关于未来学。之后开始实习,并在接下来的十年都在夏威夷司法部门工作。

右三为Jim Dator,美国夏威夷大学未来研究中心总监、教授,也是Sohail教授的老师。

(图片来源:网络)

有趣的是,我早在1983年发表的第一篇论文是关于机器人的合法权利的那时,我们好奇如果法官被机器人取代,将会发生什么?如果AI机器人可以执行刑事审判,法官也许会成为哲学家,那么我们如何将一部分重复的、不那么核心的工作移交给AI机器人?另外,我的论文里也试图探讨:如果机器人拥有像猫和狗一样的权利,我们的世界会发生怎样的变化?这些关于未来司法的前瞻讨论引发了这个领域从业者的极大关注,到了1992年,美国司法部资助了32个州的司法部门开展前瞻战略研究。

FC:您是如何在上个世纪80年代就预见未来AI和机器人的可能性?

SI我的“未来信号”来自于15岁时看的一部改编自未来学家阿尔文·托夫勒著作的科幻电影。在电影里,有一对情侣在柔美的背景音乐下牵手,他们周围还有美丽的树。你会觉得,哦,多么浪漫美好的画面啊。直到他们转过身来,观众们才发现这对情侣是对机器人。这一幕震惊到了我。

图片来源:Bill Mayer

FC:您从事未来学研究工作已超过40年,这里源源不断的动力是什么?

SI未来学一直都很引人入胜呐!这里有三方面的主要因素。首先,坚持学习每周我都会研究最前沿的科技并思考接下来要发生什么。比如,今年的方法论培训课(Sohail教授的未来学曼谷培训工作坊)上我就从一位新加坡未来学家那里学到了食物的地球工程改造。我之前从没想到过这样的解决方案。我们知道气象的地球工程改造是什么,但是我从来没想过改变土壤来种植新的农作物。

另外一个至关重要的因素是,帮助他人从“心”开始改变。想成为一名优秀的的未来学家?你需要深刻理解你的人生故事,我们内心的隐喻塑造了我们是谁。在大部分我的工作坊结束之际,我看到不少人或潸然泪下,因为工作坊启发甚至改变了他们的人生。在今天的课堂上,一位来自曼谷的未来城市规划专家特意邀请他的夫人来参加,他已经不是第一次来上课了,我相信正是因为他自己内心的巨大变化才会做出这样的选择,并且带上夫人共同探索自己的内心世界和人生旅途。

我继续给你们讲个故事吧。我很喜欢跟小孩一起玩,有一次我为7个12岁左右的小朋友主持了2小时长的战略共创工作坊,带领他们用CLA模型思考问题。我先问这些孩子:你们觉得2030年的世界会怎样?你那时会在做什么?我最喜欢的答案是一个孩子说她会在2025年成为“彩虹糖豆公司”的总裁。之后,我问她:你对你目前生活的比喻是什么?未来的“彩虹糖豆公司”的总裁说,她的比喻是“她只身在一个房间里,窗帘全都拉上了”。她的朋友们听完就哭了,边哭边说:“你想成为一个总裁,但是你现在的生活像一扇关闭的门。” 我接着问:这个故事告诉你什么?她立马就理解了——这个故事代表着失败。接着她的朋友们告诉她:他们都爱她,但是为什么她没有和他们心连心呢?然后七个孩子都哭了,非常震撼。我一边安慰他们,一边给她建议:“你的愿景很美好,但是你的故事却存在落差。那有没有更好的故事呢?”她说:“让阳光照进来吧。”然后我说:“这句话战略上到底是什么意思呢?如果这是你的新故事,那你会在哪些地方做出改变?”有人说她数学很好,有人说她科学不错。作为一个总裁,不仅需要技术层面的知识,还要有互助合作的情商。他们都明白了这一点,最后互相拥抱。给他们带来这样内心的变化,让我感到幸福和满足。

第三个因素是影响力的善用。我从20岁开始一直在做学术研究,建立未来学研究的理论并刻苦学习。40年过后,随着我在联合国教科文组织、亚洲发展银行、各国政府、教育系统,以及跨国非政府组织展开的工作,个人影响力也随之显著提升,这样可以帮助身边更多的个体和组织。人们想要一个更美好的世界,他们想要工具和方法来创造这样的世界。

FC:也有人对未来学家表示质疑,他们可能觉得未来学家只会狂言乱语,您对此怎么看?为什么未来学家会有这样的负面名声?

SI这是个残酷的现实我们不得不面对。在上世纪80年代,我刚开始做未来学研究那会儿是很难的。1989年,柏林高墙坍塌了。这改变了人们的认知:曾经以为不会变的事都将发生改变。接着我么看到了更多的证据以证明世界在变化:苏联解体,基因工程启动,互联网普及,亚洲四小龙崛起,随后又有亚洲金融危机,9/11事件,中国经济腾飞…这些都在20年内发生了,世界在迅速改变着。正因如此,未来学研究和战略远见能力变得必不可少。

对于那些收到负面评价的未来学家,他们做错的地方可能来自几个方面。第一,他们预测结果:这会发生,而且我肯定是对的。第二,当他们与别人合作时,他们会说:你错了,我才是对的。第三,他们不会使用他人的语言体系并触及他们的人生故事,从而并未真正理解对方。

在我个人的工作习惯里,我总是会去问每个跟我合作的人:你是谁?你需要什么?你个人/所在组织的核心故事是什么?当一个团队邀请我去做战略共创工作坊时,我会问,你们想要参与者在下午5点离开会议室前学到什么。不同企业、机构和组织的需求千变万化,我会用他们的语言和故事跟他们一起工作,这跟告诉你的合作者“我有答案,你没有”截然不同。

FC:那么,从另一个角度来说,如何成为一名出色的未来学家?

SI:首先是方法论,要是没有系统方法论和思考框架的支持,你会很容易落入夸夸其谈抑或是奇闻逸事。因此,你需要良好的方法论基础并使用你喜欢的思考工具。其次,对我来说,是通晓历史。我并非中国话题的专家,但我读过司马迁的《史记》。你需要会读书,并阅读不同国家和文化的经典著作。我和Johan Galtung写了一本关于宏观历史的书,里面梳理了不同文明里时间和空间的核心规律。这个方法帮助我们从不同文化的视角窥见一个长期的未来。第三是引导的能力。引导是未来学家很重要的技能之一,因为关于未来的讨论通常很有挑战。我们需要给参与者足够的包容和空间可以探讨未来的不同可能性。第四点也是最后一点,要学会如何灵活地应变不同的环境和挑战。

FC:作为一个未来学家,您的一天通常是怎么度过的?

SI有两部分。第一部分是内心的部分,我真心觉得冥想是非常重要的。冥想的形式并不重要,重要的是要掌握呼吸和慢下来的本领。因为所有事物都在改变,我们则更需要保持稳定,不能惊慌。我们的大脑需要慢下来。慢思考意味着我们可以看清规律并连接碎片,伴随着冥想大脑的规律识别能力也会逐渐增强。我已经冥想四十多年了,我的建议是你不需要特别用力地去冥想。冥想就像是给你的大脑冲个澡,帮你用新的方式领会这个世界。第二部分就是你需要看清楚接下来会发生的事以及可能的黑天鹅事件。这也是我们需要日常锻炼的远见能力。当别人看不见时,我们能够看见。

下篇

新冠疫情不是黑天鹅!|对话未来 An interview with Sohail Inayatullah

此次新冠疫情并非黑天鹅事件,而是长期潜在问题累积而引发的危机。除了应对当下疫情之外,更重要的是去反思:如果未来新冠病毒的再次爆发仍是可能的,我们该如何预防并提前制定相应措施。

当新冠疫情爆发时,我们向来自不同国家、不同领域的未来学家请教他们对此次疫情的看法。Sohail教授便是其中之一。他从十年前便开始关注流行病学的研究,并预判新冠病毒爆发可能性一直存在,只是具体时间难以预测。对于未来,他认为我们必须从消费主义中反思我们的饮食结构和来源,以及从城市设计上如何在人类和动物之间保留缓冲地带

访谈亮点:

  • 未来学中的远见(Foresight)跟预测(Forecast) 有何不同?
  • 如果要给思考未来一个时间框架,那会是几年?
  • 善于运用战略远见的企业为什么可以有高出平均33%的更好表现?
  • 为何新加坡总理办公室会下设一个战略远见研究所?
  • 中国在下一个发展阶段将面临怎样的挑战?

FC(未来学家俱乐部):作为联合国未来学教席,您是否可以从专业角度帮我们理解未来学远见预测这几个概念的差别?

SI (Sohail Inayatullah教授):未来学(Futures Studies)就像是一把巨大的伞,其伞盖下包含了理论、方法、实践以及个体的变化。它的定义很广泛,指向的是长期的未来,关于想要的(preferred)、可能会发生的(possible)、合理会发生的(plausible) 以及极有可能发生的(probable)的未来,以及这些未来可能性背后的世界观和隐喻。

未来学的两个重要概念:远见 vs 预测(原图来自于Dune & Raby

 远见(Foresight) 相对而言更为具体些,它指的是获取关于未来的预期和展望(又译为“预判”)。

每一个地域的传统文化里都有关于远见的表达。在马来西亚,有句谚语说的是Sediakan payung sebelum hujan (意思是:下雨前把雨伞准备好)。在英语文化中,人们常说A stitch in time saves nine (意思是:小洞不补,大洞吃苦)。在中国,我相信也有很多类似的文化习俗。例如,阴历和24节气反映了农民对于未来的预判。

图片来源:win4000.com

 另外一个概念是预测(Forecast) 这个概念会更狭义和具体。比如,股市将在一年后达到三万点,或者为残疾人服务的机器操控台在未来七年内将变得更加普及。

预测是单一的、线性的、具体的,

远见则是看到不同未来可能性的能力。

战略远见是在既有条件下的优化;变革远见则关注外部环境如何变化,以及适应变化所需的自身改变。

FC:在商业实践中,未来学是如何被应用的?

SI在商业的语境中,人们通常会使用战略远见(Strategic Foresight)这个词不过,我个人主推并擅长的是变革远见(Transformative Foresight)。战略远见是你拿到你认为想要的;变革远见可能则是要改变自己。企业高管们更偏好战略变革远见,因为他们希望先改变自己。

 自我的隐喻:过去 vs 未来

我在战略远见培训中遇到过一个总裁,我们一起用CLA模型(点击跳转了解CLA模型)去分析他个人的内心变化。我问他,你碰到的问题是什么?他说:每次他带着预先的设想参加各种会议,但参会时他总会因为层出不穷的陌生话题感到焦虑甚至迷茫。

我说,好吧,这个问题如果做个比喻的话,你的比喻会是什么?他以打网球为比喻:他本来很擅长在草地球场上打网球,现在当他要去一块新的球场打球时,他不确定那是什么类型的球场,是草地还是泥地,也不确定击球的速度是快还是慢。世界正在在变化,他有点应接不暇。

那么,对他而言,“战略”是指优化在草地球场上的打球效率,而“变革远见”是指他能适应在不同的球场上打球。为了改变自我,他找到的新比喻是“一个能在多样化球场打球的人”。

接着我就说,这个比喻可以带你到2030年,到那时你会是谁呢?

他说,他会变成一个教练,并且打球更多是为了休闲放松、提升技能、改变规则、找寻人生挚爱。我说,为什么会有那样的想法?他继续说到,当他五岁时,他就很纯粹地享受打网球的乐趣。长大后作为一名企业的管理者,脑子里却总是在想如何为企业赚更多的钱。

这便是区别。战略远见是在既有条件下的优化;变革远见则关注外部环境如何变化,以及适应变化所需的自身改变,比战略远见更为深刻,于我也更有意义。

图片来源:123RF.com

FC:未来到底多遥远?如何定义合理的时间范围去思考未来?

SI思考未来的时间框架得按不同行业有所区分。一个城市级别的战略远见项目大约要看未来30-40年,因为建筑师们告诉我重建所有建筑需要40年。在医药领域里,产品创新一般需要12-15年的时间。对于小型的初创企业,通常时间会更短些。当然如果看得太远,你的同事或客户会觉得他们无法带来影响;如果看得太近,比如6个月内的计划,则更多是执行安排,你需要的是旅行社,而非未来学家。

通常来说,未来学家会看7年,或15-20年的未来。

FC:在您的新书《亚洲2038》里,您讲到了未来3000年的亚洲,那这个时间范围的意义是什么?

SI下一个千年的未来是为了喜欢未来理论以及宏观历史的人准备的,尤其是对于未来充满憧憬的年轻人。而对于企业决策者来说,3000年意味着天方夜谭,或者遥远、不切实际的科幻创作。对于大部分组织而言,去看未来10-15年的战略远见是有必要的,否则可能会因为太远显得无关紧要。

对未来有准备的公司其盈利表现通常高出市场平均水平33%

FC:作为一个与政府首脑、组织和企业高管们合作多年的未来学家,您如何评估未来思维之于他们的价值?

SI未来思维的第一个价值是降低风险。如果我们做未来的情境规划(scenario planning),实际上就是在减少决策失误的风险。

第二个价值是通过关注边缘创新发现新的商业机会、新市场以及新产品。未来不仅仅是优化,它更需要我们突破现有的思维框架。

第三个价值是树立愿景。一个没有愿景和目标的人,其实是很可怜的,国家亦如此。如果你是一个贫穷国家,只关注眼前水和食物等基本问题。当你变成一个发达国家并有希望在接下来的100年里繁荣发展时,最好有一个清晰的愿景。

此外,我们也注意到来自法国未来学家René Rohrbeck的研究成果:善于利用战略远见且对未来有准备的公司其盈利表现通常高出市场平均水平33%

未来远见能力不同的公司在盈利表现上的差异。图片来源:Corporate foresight and its impact on firm performance: A longitudinal analysis, by René Rohrbeck, Menes EtingueKum

FC战略远见在亚洲各国的发展和应用如何?

SI在亚洲,我们看到不少政府部门运用未来思维和战略远见的案例。以新加坡为例,他们的总理办公室下设有Center for Strategic Futures (CSF)。我问这个部门的人,为何新加坡在国家层面如此注重未来布局。他们说,新加坡的自然资源是有限的,他们的竞争力在于大脑和微笑,即远见和服务:远见的能力带动了创新,微笑提升了服务。

此外,马来西亚有相应的政府部门,叫做MIGHT (Malaysian Industry-Government Group for High Technology);泰国政府的科技和科学部下设NIA (National Innovation Agency),柬埔寨政府正在做未来50年的愿景和规划。缅甸政府也在做类似的尝试。

FC:您跟亚洲开发银行(ADB)有很多合作,是否方便分享一下ADB如何在组织外部推动战略远见呢?

SI四年前,亚洲开发银行派了两位高管来上我的战略远见培训课。上完后,他们觉得醍醐灌顶。接着,他们邀请我去为ADB的高层们上3天的课程,同时我给他们做了关于知识未来的主题演讲。高层们在上完课程后,突然意识到他们需要重新思考ADB的投资策略——从基础设施建设的借贷到知识建设的赋能。
一方面,发展起来的国家借钱借的少了,因为他们逐渐变的更富有了,因此ADB需要改变他们对银行和对钱的看法。他们创新部门的领导目前的工作重心就是将ADB转型成为一个知识银行。也就是说,如果国家能开始重新思考知识,比如,我们该从哪里获取知识,他们就想到去找ADB。
目前,他们在不同国家都开展未来思维和战略远见的工作坊,目的是与每个国家、每个城市中最优秀的、最聪明的人建立合作,从而创造一个更好的亚洲。 ADB给我们的启示是:如果过去的经验到现在仍然适用,那非常棒,至于它是过去的或是现在的并不重要;但如果过去的策略不再奏效,那我们何必执着于它?

战略远见的价值在于帮助我们找出不再适用的地方,从而进行改变和颠覆。

图片来源:khmertimeskh.com

FC:您跟中国政府、企业、大学是否开展过战略远见相关的工作?

SI几个月前,亚洲开发银行邀请我来到北京,与中国财政部和国家发改委的官员们共同探讨教育的未来。这只是推广未来思维和战略远见的第一阶段,现在我们在等下一阶段的合作。另外,蚂蚁金服是我合作的第一个中国企业,当时是在香港的三天战略远见课程。

同时,我也在台湾淡江大学任教,这门课程在80年代引进的。1986年,未来学本科课程第一次开课;2000年,学校开设了研究生项目。未来学课程是每个学生的必修课。在过去20年内,约8万名学生学习了这门课程。

中国将要超越西方,那时中国对整个地球和人类的愿景是什么?

FC:您如何看待战略远见对于中国的价值?

SI要回答这个问题,我们需要思考为什么中国需要通过战略远见实现腾飞。旧的模型是追赶西方,然后一旦追上了西方,接下来要做什么?这就像是参加一个跑步比赛,你赢了,现在你干什么?只是回家睡觉吗?你在追赶上后需要一个新的愿景和目标。

中国将要超越西方,那时中国对整个地球和人类的愿景是什么?2050年,中国将全面实现社会主义现代会,成为发达国家。那么接下来呢?2090年的目标又是什么?一带一路倡议带来更广泛的经济繁荣,但仍停留同一个模式里。

战略远见对于中国的价值在于提升跨越式腾飞的可能性并找到新的愿景和目标。

我们的盲点通常在于看不见真正推开或排斥的东西。

FC:在您看来,思考未来的挑战是什么?您有什么建议?

SI:你试图压制的东西会以另外一种方式反弹,你试图推开的东西会以另外一种方式回来。这在我有生之年的经历里是个颠簸不破的真理。所有我认识的20多岁的人,他们在年轻的时候会把一些东西推开,但是到60多岁就与这些东西共同生活。盲点是其中的一个障碍,因为你通常看不见你真正推开的东西比如,我和我的朋友在20多岁时会忽视市场经济,因为我们不懂市场经济。现在50多岁的我们正生活在市场经济中,所以这就是我们被推回来的东西。

我不知道你的“回推/反弹”会是什么,但这里有个关键的问题值得思考下:我们现在舍弃了什么

FC:您的新书《亚洲 2038》简体中文版计划什么时候发布?

SI这本书的英文原版2018年就发布了,韩语版预计2020年一月会出。简体中文版的翻译也快结束了,我们现在寻求合适的中国出版商,希望这本书可以很快在中国出版,也希望中国读者会喜欢这本书。未来,我也期待在中国引进更多关于未来思维的学术类书籍,同时把战略远见工作坊推广到更多的企业、组织和个人。

Neither a Black Swan Nor a Zombie Apocalypse: The Futures of a World with the Covid-19 Coronavirus (2020)

JFS Blog, Perspectives,

Is this a Black Swan? 

Our colleague Louis Zheng from the Shanghai FuturistCircle suggested that no one had predicted COVID 19 Coronavirus. “Is it a black swan?” he asked.[1]

Image result for tamkang futures studies

www.jfsdigital.org. Accessed 17 March 2020.

Our response was that this is not a black swan, as a black swan event is defined as being unpredictable, a total surprise. The reason this coronavirus is not a black swan is that the emergence of another coronavirus was predicted by many working in the emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) field. Indeed, we argue that we need to be getting ready for the next “Corona”.

The predictability is on a number of fronts.

1. The increasing rate of emerging EIDs is well recorded in the scientific literature (Morse 1995).

2. Many agreed for some time that the most likely severe EIDs would be caused by single-stranded RNA viruses (as these have high rates of mutation) and would emerge from animals. This simply reflects the recognition that more than 70% of recent EID events have their origins in animals (they are zoonotic) with most originating principally from wildlife (Jones et al. 2008).

3. Coronaviruses were high on the list of likely candidates for causing an EID event. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) emerged in 2003, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in 2012 – both caused by novel coronaviruses (Fan et al. 2019).

4. Bats as a likely source of viruses causing EIDs have also been well recognized in the scientific literature (Olival et al. 2017).

5. Research on both SARS and zoonotic avian influenza identified infection spillover pathways that most often included ‘wet markets’ where live animals are frequently sold and slaughtered on site. In the case of zoonotic influenza, the spread of the virus to people was from poultry at live bird markets (i.e. wet market). For SARS, the initial spillover event occurred at a wet market containing wildlife when people were exposed to civets that were shedding the SARS coronavirus (Webster 2004). Although there has been work in trying to change wet markets (FAO 2015) and in some countries stop wet markets—especially where many species, including wildlife mix—this change has been difficult due to a range of social, economic and cultural factors. We anticipate in the short run these factors will reduce in importance, but insofar as “culture eats strategy for breakfast,” they are likely to return without global institutional and cultural shifts.

All the above was known before COVID 19, so people working in the EID space were not surprised. The exact timing of emergence was not predicted, but nonetheless, the emergence of a novel coronavirus associated with wet markets containing wildlife was not unexpected at all (Fan et al. 2019).

Foresight, of course, is not about exact timing – that is market investment and stock trading. This is about creating the capacity to anticipate tomorrow’s problems and act today. Thus, the seeds of the Corona, the weak signals, have been present for a decade.

Culture Eats Strategy For Breakfast

Why then with this information are we now in the middle of an epidemic? Colleagues in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) suggest that: Firstly, “it is related deeply to the Chinese eating culture – preference for fresh meat from animals butchered at the counter”. Secondly, the memories of food crises in China remain. Third, there continues to be a level of mistrust of the government. For example, “residents have little knowledge of the frozen meat-producing process due to the lack of information transparency, thus, some ignore the regulations of the live animal ban in the wet markets.” They are bounty hunters, focused on wealth creation, irrespective of the costs to the overall society.

Furthermore, many from rural areas live in the ancient episteme where the “liveness” of the animal leads to greater health as one is “eating” life. Thus, the initial lack of response speed can be explained not just by a culture where informing supervisors equates with a fear of losing one’s job – but because parts of China live in different times. An ancient worldview, a communist worldview, and now a globalist worldview. Certainly since the initial issue of transparency emerged, China’s response has been robust and dynamic. The speed of virus infection has been dramatically reduced, giving the rest of the world a chance to mitigate.

Social problems emerge, or are difficult to address, where there are varying perspectives – each often in tension with others. Interests and strategies are at locked horns or drawing the carriage in different directions.

This is illustrated in the Causal Layered Analysis (Inayatullah and Milojević, 2015) below. Six meta-perspectives are critical – the views from those who sell in wet markets; the views of those in the political bureaucracy (this helps explain the rise of COVID-19 in China early on in the outbreak and Iran, for example); the current strategy of slowing down the virus – the Medieval; the Pharma perspective; the Market; and of course, the Citizen.

Wet market Political bureaucracy Public health Pharma Economic Citizen
Litany Continued wet markets Information about disease not shared Slow down the virus so systems can survive Enlist medical and health systems to create the cure Economic indicators – recession on the way Fear and panic 
System Jobs in tension with the need to eliminate them.Outside of the law. Job – fear of reprisal from those above Quarantine,Social distancing,

Surveillance,

Lockdown,

Flatten the curve.

Use apps and Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Find the vaccine.Vaccinate all.

Using new technologies to speed up solutions

Profits and interconnected systems cause downward pressure.Uncertainty driving market volatility. Citizens looking for direction. Leaders uncertain of how to balance the economy and public health. 
Worldview Economic – wealth accumulation Political – authoritarian Medieval-Safety Pharmaceutical – plus AI plus to some extent public health Capitalist – markets Citizen prefer flatter systems, but search for expertise 
Myth/metaphor “Bounty hunters” 

“Show me the money”

“The big man” “Breaking the chain of infection”“Slow down the fire” “Silver bullet” “Where to hide” – “opportunities everywhere” “Whom do I trust” 

Thus part of the challenge of a global response is that there are multiple worldviews operating, all with different interests.

While CLA helps us to understand the varying perspectives, scenarios help us address alternative trajectories.

What Then Are The Scenarios?

Based on the hundreds of articles, we see at least four possible futures. [2]

1. Zombie Apocalypse (CDC 2020). This future emerges because of the mutation of the virus plus xenophobia plus panic. Uncertainty leads to continued market crashes. Supply chains, tourism, travel, and conferences are all disrupted. A severe and long term recession, if not depression, results. Failure to act leads to a number of regime changes, as in Iran and the USA, to begin with. Wherever there are system stresses, they break. This is certainly how the future feels to many. The memory of earlier plagues remains at the inter-generational level. Fear and panic rule.

https://www.cdc.gov/cpr/zombie/00_images/header-index.jpg

Image from https://www.cdc.gov/cpr/zombie/index.htm

2. The Needed Pause. Efforts are made in most countries to ‘flatten the curve’ to help health systems cope. In the future, COVID-19 becomes just another winter flu – dangerous as it is for the elderly and those who smoke. It is, however, solved and routinized within a year. Big Pharma sees the money-making opportunity and by 2021 a vaccine is available. In the meantime, the frenetic pace of everything slows down, with multiple benefits to the planet and personal health. Greenhouse gas emissions fall, for starters. Over-touristed cities like Venice get a break. Localization heals. People focus on their inner lives. More and more people meditate. For a short period working from home becomes the norm. However, states still do not support employees in this process as trust is a factor. Thus, after the pause, back to business as usual. We slowed down in order to speed up again.

Image result for flattening the curve number of cases

Flattening the curve. https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926806. Accessed 17 March 2020.

C:\Users\Sohail\Documents\1My family pictures\asohail professional photos\in meditation in armenia.jpg

3. Global Heath Awakening. Large AI companies, science, start-ups, and public health expertise come to the rescue. We truly enter the digital fourth wave era – genomics plus AI help monitor and then prevent. The five ‘p’ health model – prevention, precision, participation, partnership, and personalization become the norm. There is a breakthrough after breakthrough with innovation (real-time detection, health monitoring using big data) cascading through the system. While the virus began in China, the nation leads in innovation as it is forced to adapt. Toynbee’s creative minority via open-source science and technology lead the way. Working from home booms as new relationships between employer and employee are created. Universal basic income is supported as the strength of a society is based on how we treat the weakest; not how we glorify the strongest. Young people are no longer the future, but the present. This the disruption that truly creates the fourth industrial revolution. Along with external innovation, there is inner innovation – a social revolution. Evidence-based science and technology inform public policy; not the whims of particular leaders. The insights from fighting Covid 19 are applied to climate change. There is a dramatic shift to plant-based diets. It is business transformed, social mutation,[3] not back to usual. There are, however, concerns about privacy.

The Global Awakeninghttps://in5d.com/the-global-awakening/. Accessed 11 March 2020

4. The Great Despair. Not an apocalypse, not a depression, no magic – just a slow and marked decline of health and wealth. Walls appear everywhere. The World Health Organization and others try to contain, but the virus repeatedly slips in and infects the bodies, minds, and hearts of all. Back to the European Middle Ages. The efforts to address fail. The least connected to globalization fare the best. The vulnerable are forgotten. Inter-generational memory of past pandemics inform.

Image result for viruses and the middle ages

https://www.usu.edu/markdamen/1320hist&civ/chapters/06plague.htm

Depending on one’s worldview the future looks very different. Certainly, the first scenario represents emotional fears. The Needed pause and Alibaba magic are based on breakthroughs in science and technology by Big pharma and Tech with varying levels of individual and social intervention. The Great Despair represents a failure to wisely act.

Conclusion And Next Steps

To prevent the next outbreak, first, a global ban on wet markets and trade in wildlife with real help to transition sellers so they are not impoverished. This is a huge undertaking as both the number of people involved in the wildlife trade and its global economic value are enormous. China’s wildlife industry alone is valued at $74 billion USD. However, the cost to China of this outbreak will be many times larger than this, even if only taking account of losses associated with tourism and consumer spending (Machalaba and Kartesh 2020).

However, there are potential barriers: Even though banning wildlife trade may make economic sense, there could be a cultural backlash – ‘Why should I have to live without access to the foods that make me strong. This is the West dictating too much about my lifestyle!’

Irrespective of the success of banning the wet markets and trade in wildlife, the economic costs of this COVID 19 pandemic will be debated and analyzed in great detail. The argument will most likely be made to invest in the same strategies that were suggested post-SARS, and the influenza H1N1 pandemic of 2009 — strategies that were only partially funded and implemented. That is, there will be a support to continue with the status quo and steady the ship by ensuring countries can all meet the International Health Regulations and ‘manage’ the next epidemic or pandemic challenge.

Second, there should be increased interest in detecting disease, even earlier, especially in areas of increased risk of emergence and disease spillover. This will likely support full investment in new technologies such Next Generation Sequencing (NGS), Big Data, AI and AI combined apps that can detect diseases.

Story imagehttps://bizedge.co.nz/story/the-tech-on-the-frontlines-of-the-fight-against-covid-19. Accessed 17 March 2020.

Third —and critically—will be the increased investment in real prevention strategies that acknowledge that the majority of zoonotic pathogens have emerged as a result of changes to food production, agriculture, land use and contact with wildlife (Allen et al. 2017). This could result for example, in the creation of buffer zones between wildlife and human settlements, or cost-benefit studies of new agricultural projects and land-use change that take into account increased EID risk, such as COVID 19. Even more fundamentally, real prevention strategies will mean re-thinking the current “more, more, more” development model. Taking an Eco-health view, we argue that Nature strikes back. Always.

wildlife overpass

https://loonylabs.org/2015/06/27/buffer-zones-humans/ Accessed 11 March 2020.

In conclusion: this crisis is a health crisis but, of course, it is much more. It is https://j-galt.com/accutane-30mg/ about leadership and governance , about what type of world we wish to live in. It is a test of the creation of a planetary civilization, working together to solve problems.

If we do not succeed, the next ‘Corona’ is just around the corner.

About the Authors

Sohail Inayatullah, UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies, USIM, Professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan and Associate, Melbourne Business School, the University of Melbourne. sinayatullah@gmail.com. www.metafuture.org

Dr. Peter Black, One Health Foresight Consultant and Veterinary Epidemiologist peter@essentialforesight.com www.essentialforesight.com

Special thanks to Russell Clemens for copy editing the manuscript

References

Allen, T., Murray, K.A., Zambrana-Torrelio, C. et al. Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases. Nat Commun 8, 1124 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00923-8

Inayatullah, Sohail and Ivana Milojević. 2015. CLA 2.0: Transformative Research in Theory and Practice. Tamsui: Tamkang University Press

Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. Zombie Preparedness. https://www.cdc.gov/cpr/zombie/index.htm Accessed 11 March 2020.

Fan, Y.; Zhao, K.; Shi, Z.-L.; Zhou, P. Bat Coronaviruses in China. Viruses 2019, 11, 210

Jones, K., Patel, N., Levy, M. et al. Global trends in emerging infectious diseases. Nature 451, 990–993 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06536

Inayatullah, Sohail and Ivana Milojević. 2015. CLA 2.0: Transformative Research in Theory and Practice. Tamsui: Tamkang University Press

Machalaba, C and Karesh B Fight Pandemics Like Wildfires With Prevention and a Plan to Share the Costs, Foreign Affairs (6 March 2020)

Morse SS. Factors in the Emergence of Infectious Diseases. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 1995;1(1):7-15. doi:10.3201/eid0101.950102

Olival, K., Hosseini, P., Zambrana-Torrelio, C. et al. Host and viral traits predict zoonotic spillover from mammals. Nature 546 646–650 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature22975

Webster, R. Wet markets—a continuing source of severe acute respiratory syndrome and influenza?:The Lancet, 363, Issue 9404, 17 January 2004, 234-236

United Nations Food and Agriculture Oganisation (FAO 2015) Biosecurity guide for live poultry markets. http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5029e.pdf. Accessed 13 March 2020

  1. Personal email. February 10, 2020
  2. These are best used as points of departure, to capture uncertainty and create alternative futures
  3. To use the words of Satya Tanner. Facebook post. March 6, 2020.

My Son Deals in Hamburgers and Other Futures: Causal Layered Analysis in Rio de Janeiro (2019)

By Sohail Inayatullah and Jaqueline Weigel

THE CLA METHOD INTEGRATED INTO SCENARIOS

One of the participants lowered this voice, and said: “I am ashamed to admit it, but my son is involved with hamburger dealing”. This was the punch line of the “Healthy organic food”  group’s presentation on the Futures of Food 2030.

During the Futures Thinking and CLA Method workshop at  Rio de Janeiro, four groups presented their findings. They used the Integrated scenario method developed by Inayatullah. In this approach, four scenarios are developed: the preferred, the disowned, the integrated and the outlier.  The preferred group conceived of food in  2030 as organic, abundant and accessible to everybody. The world would be a place where people would spiritually feed themselves on light and colors, physically receive vitamin and vegetable shots, and would mentally find their balance through aromatherapy. They would practice regular meditation and be free from harmful food.  In this future, drinking alcohol, smoking or eating too much sugar would be unacceptable. In the final moments of the group’s presentation, one of the participants stated his son shamefully sells hamburgers, as if he were an outlaw. The shock was immediate, and the imagination of this ridiculous scene gave way to a possible future reality. Their metaphor, it was obvious to all, was “food for health.”

The second group, the disowned scenario, focused on a large current corporation,  interested in keeping their markets and using technology such as 3D printers to make food on a large scale for everybody.  Science, technology, and capital would guarantee future demand by ensuring abundant food, even with high initial investment costs.  Their metaphor was “food for all.”

The third group, which represented the integrated future (combining the preferred with the disowned), imagined a world with healthy food for all by 2030, resulting from both the combination of science and technology and from the better use of the planet’s natural resources. Sustainability was their core worldview and the narrative metaphor was “food for life.”

The last group, the outlier,  brought values which were atypical, but common to human beings. The group challenged the others with the narrative “Home as a farm”. Each Brazilian home would produce its own food with the use of natural resources and 3D printers.

The ingredients would be organic and small producers would be part of a relevant and active network. Large corporations – who waste natural resources and produce high levels of industrialized food – no longer dominate. Small Brazilian startups –  Brasileiras  –    lead the way.

After the presentation of the created scenarios, the organizer and CEO of Wfuturismo, Jaqueline Weigel played the role of a referee of preferred futures and decided that, while the first group had the best performance at presenting their future, the ” home like a farm” was the most convincing presentation.

FOUR SCENARIOS

Scenario title Preferred Future Disowned Integrated Outlier
System Healthy foods embraced, other foods avoided Science and technology plus large capital investment. Science and technology plus sustainability Every home has a 3D printer
Worldview Government and community regulations Large Corporations Corporations with community groups Small start-ups
Metaphor Food for health Food for all Food for life Home as farm

CLA IN BRAZIL

These scenarios were created by the participants of a CLA  – Causal Layered Analysis – workshop held for the first time in Brazil on February 15th by Sohail Inayatullah and Jaqueline Weigel. The Futures Thinking Lab overlooked the Museum of Tomorrow, which served as an inspiration to the group for Brazil to truly create their preferred tomorrow. The intention was to show how CLA  could be applied to different problems faced by Brazil, bringing a quick possibility of changing mindset and transforming the nature of strategic decision making in the Brazilian market. CLA  is used to dive into deeper waters than just scenarios and trends in order to create transformative stories of personal and collective futures.

CLA is both a theory of knowledge and a futures thinking method. It assumes four levels of reality. Daily litany or headlines make up for understanding reality. For example, the number of deaths caused by the Coronavirus. The system-level brings the complex causes of the virus, such as the sale of wild animals in the markets, the consumption of exotic animals, and the lack of buffer zones between wildlife, agricultural areas, and cities. Worldviews are the deeper perspectives enacted by the global actors on this subject, such as doctors, scientists, citizens, food producers, and government. Urbanization, patriarchy, and capitalism are the core worldviews that continue to create pandemics such as the Coronavirus. The deepest level is the metaphor. In the case of the Coronavirus, this could be the story of “more, more and more” or “food for me”, with no real rules of protection or prevention, just food to meet immediate desires, however harmful to others.

Jaqueline Weigel presenting Futures in Brazil. Picture by Garoa Produções

THE CLA GAME AND THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT

Prior to the scenario development, participants played the CLA game. In this role-playing game, members are divided into four groups. The litany – ladainha – group articulates the headlines. The systems group substantiates why the headline has become a reality. The worldview group contributes different perspectives of stakeholders, and last, the metaphor group transforms the headline into stories. The CLA game tests to see if the litany is plausible – does it have support from the system, the stakeholders, and narratives – or is it extremely unlikely.

Jaqueline Weigel presented the first headline: “Oil and gas companies have broken down and there are many unemployed Brazilians”. The systems group embraced the headline and justified that this has occurred because of corruption, the lack of foresight and innovation in creating new technologies, and systems that are not adapting to a rapidly changing world. The worldviews were presented by a worker, a student, a CEO and Minister of Labor. The student said that she was afraid of the scenario. The worker agreed. The CEO added that she was anxious and unable to make a decision, and the Minister replied that he was on his way to Hawaii.

The metaphor group entered the conversation, asserting that we always knew this would occur, as “Brazil remains a sleeping giant and is now behind schedule.” Everyone agreed that, without a fight against corruption, and without foresight built into governmental, corporate and community  Brazil would not rise.

The next headline was “Digitization has led to a recovery in Rio’s economy. Employment has reached peak levels.” The systems group burst out laughing, skeptical that this could ever be the case. The worker said he was happy, as well as the student and the CEO. The Minister was still in Hawaii.

The metaphor was: “Brazil still not on the map”.

The main emerging narrative was that Brazil was a place where everyone works hard for themselves but does not yet have the narrative of “one for all and all for one”. This partnership between capital, companies, preservation of natural resources, government and workers is urgently needed for Brazil to be able to transform.

A light moment at the workshop. Sohail Inayatullah with Brazilian foresight executives. Picture by Garoa Produções

CLA WORKING GROUPS

To practice CLA, participants created three working groups. The first looked at the futures of football. The second the futures of food. The third that futures of employment. While we explored the latter above, a deconstruction of football revealed that while loved by all, football remains owned by the few. They imagined a different future for Football. In this future, football would be owned by all. Football teams would be run by cooperatives, not large corporate clubs. This would change the deep structure of sports ownership in the nation. The narrative shift would be football “loved by all” to “owned by all.” This would thus see a systemic change toward the peer to peer co-ownership model. The litany would shift from the number of people who watch and play football to the number of people who were co-owners of football clubs.

CLA TABLE ON THE FUTURES OF FOOTBALL

Football futures Today Transformed 2030
Litany Number of citizens who  love football – watch and play Number of citizens who are part owners
System Hierarchy Peer to peer
Worldview Corporate Cooperative
Myth-metaphor Loved by all Owned by all

 

https://www.lawinsport.com/topics/item/why-isn-t-there-more-private-investment-into-brazilian-football-clubs. Accessed 21 February 2020.

CLA intends to create the most robust policy and strategy formulation for countries, society, institutions, companies, and people in general. CLA is also used for self-analysis and re-creation.

A second group focused on privacy. They wished to see a transformation in the use and ownership of data moving from self-interest to data that was good for them all.

CLA TABLE ON DATA PRIVACY FUTURES

Data Privacy Today Transformed 2030
Litany There is no privacy Data decisions are democratic
System There are no rules, citizens unconcerned Data rules in all countries
Worldview Data rules are based on convenience Data exchange is facilitated for the good of all
Metaphor Gerson’s law [i]– take advantage of everything to get ahead The three musketeers

 

One of the working groups. Juliana Abelha, Thayani Costa, Rosana Pauluci, and Juliana Magalhães. Picture by Garoa Produções

CLA OF THE SELF

CLA is of use not just for understanding and changing external conditions, but as well for transforming’s one own life story. Beginning with a problem one faces, the transformative question is:  what metaphor are you stuck in? What is your future narrative?

When applied to an individual, CLA suggests first identifying a problem (e.g. feeling stuck in a job). Then, identifying the system which may have created the problem. For example, a conflict between the need for stability and the need for freedom; the conflict between the selves of “parent” and “teenager”.  The third level is the source event or process that creates the worldview. In this case, a parent may have told a child that he/she needs to be responsible and get a job and that the future is a risky place. The final level is the metaphor. In this case, one interviewee said that his life was like that of “a bird in a cage”.  The new guiding metaphor for this person was “flying like an eagle”.  Next, participants create systemic changes that align with the narrative shift.

Another participant facing a health issue changed her story from the “black hole” to a “shining path”.

https://www.facebook.com/pg/brasilnarual/photos/?tab=album&album_id=62309. This is fr2271043298&ref=page_internal. This is from the Facebook page, “O Gigante Acordou”.

We can also create a new metaphor through inner meditation work, applying a sacred sound to the metaphor. This creates a potential for transmutation in which the new metaphor does not come from the rational self, but from a deeper aspect of who we are. For example, the final metaphor could be the wise owl – not trapped in a cage nor flying high – but knowing what are the right steps to follow: safety with innovation.

Foresight in Brasil

The context of the CLA workshop was to help propagate Futures Studies methodologies to Brazilian executives, so that organizations and society are able to transform themselves, instead of only responding to the short-term demands of the market. Without depth, there is no transformation, and without transformation, there is no habitable future. Given that Brazil remains the giant that is almost awake, it is hoped that foresight tools can help Brazil awaken and stay awake.

About the Authors

Sohail Inayatullah is the UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies at Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia (USIM). He can be reached at sinayatullah@gmail.com. Jaqueline Weigel is the CEO of Wfuturismo and can be contacted at jaqueline@wfuturismo.com

References

Inayatullah, Sohail. 2015. What Works: Case Studies in the Practice of Foresight. Tamsui: Tamkang.

Inayatullah, Sohail and Milojević, Ivana (Eds.). 2015. CLA 2.0: Transformative Research in Theory and Practice. Tamsui: Tamkang.

Milojević Ivana and Inayatullah Sohail. 2018. Narrative Foresight. Futures. 73:151-162.

Ramos, Jose. 2010. Alternative Futures of Globalization. PhD Thesis Dissertation. Brisbane: Queensland University of Technology.

[i] https://eyesonbrazil.wordpress.com/2008/11/12/gersons-law-getting-ahead-in-brazil/ (Accessed 24 February 2020).

The Prout Parliament Game (2019)

First published as JFS Blog (14 January 2019) https://jfsdigital.org/2019/01/14/the-prout-parliament-game/

At the summer retreat of the Ananda Marga movement in Australia, a socio-spiritual group that advocates the adoption of Prout ideals, I had the chance to experiment with gaming and creating progressive policy futures by running the first Prout parliament game. The core question was what would the world look like if Prout – as theory and movement – was in power; if the core ideas of Prout[1] were adopted as the norm, as informing and framing global and local legislative priorities? [2]

Prout itself is an acronym of the Progressive utilization theory, articulated by P.R. Sarkar in 1959. It is considered by leading scholars as one of the clearest alternatives to capitalism[3] (and communism).[4]

The Prout parliament game has four parts. Part 1 is an explanation of core Prout ideas in a futures context. Part 2 is a futures wheel process that develops the implications of key emerging issues. Part 3 is athe development of a checklist that is used to informed decision-making. And part 4 is the process of using the checklist to vote on parliamentary proposals. The structure and processes of the game lends itself to easy adoption for other social movements and organizations.

PART ONE

I began the workshop with the overall global context. First was Sri P.R. Sarkar’s argument that not only was time “galloping”, – increasing at a rapid pace – but that as global and local political and economic systems are experiencing flux, individuals can have a greater impact: you and I can make a difference. Second, the critical importance of vision, of defining where we as a society wished to be in 20 years. The argument made was that those who can imagine a desired future, feel the future they wish, had a greater chance of achieving the future. Strategy thus emerges from vision and not as an outcome of current problems. As Sarkar has argued: “What is the use of recollecting the history of your past life? Try to learn only about the future. [5] You are to look ahead, you are to look forward. We must keep the goal fixed before us, and keep moving towards the goal.”[6]

I then presented some critical aspects of Prout. These were:

  1. Inclusive spiritual practice
  2. A vegetarian diet, especially non-violence towards animals
  3. Deep sustainability in that Gaia is treated as a cooperative partner
  4. The switch to renewable energy and the creation of energy cooperatives through peer to peer energy platforms
  5. Neo-humanistic education – a focus on teaching and telling stories that were based on planetary identity. Ethnicity, religion, nation-states are not defining: deep spirit and nature are. Traditional ethnic and gendered stereotypes are shunned for the stories of how humanity as a collective has solved problems.
  6. The move toward regional association, imagining a confederation of Asian and antipodean states – an Asian-Australia union by 2038
  7. Finally, we sought to remeasure this future, moving from GDP as defining to a quadruple bottom line: prosperity (increased goods and services), sustainability (nature, first), social inclusion (a society where inclusion is designed as the norm) and spirituality (happiness and other measures of bliss).

PART TWO

In this context, we developed six working groups and asked a series of what-if questions (derived from the foresight literature)[7] for Australia by 2038. Each group explored the implications of each question and articulated Prout strategies.

  1. Chindia wins the current economic game – 50% of world GDP is produced by these two nations
  2. The neohumanist education revolution – national policy of teaching deep sustainability and inclusion.
  3. The energy shift to renewables – 50% of all homes produce their own energy
  4. Plant based diets as the new normal – 50% of all individuals self-identify with a plant diet based (up from the current 1 million or 5% vegetarians or vegans in Australia)
  5. Gender equity – in 50% of all boards (up from the current 27-32%)
  6. Technologies of the mind – eight million practice meditation or 36% of the Australian population by 2038. This would be up from the current two million.

For the rise of Chindia,[8] participants suggested that given the reality of conflict and war – as one hegemon was rising and another declining – developing pathways toward cooperation, through international mediation and arbitration in the Asian region was critical. More significantly, greater economic growth/equity would result if economic leaders China and India would move from the corporatist model to the platform cooperative model. They would not only succeed at the current economic game, but create a far more inclusive alternative game.

For the rise of plant based diets including the likely exponential growth of cellular agriculture, participants (who all happened to be between the ages of 8-14) suggested that Prout work with farmers to help them transition from meat based systems to plant based systems. Their suffering needed to be addressed. Prout practicing compassion was paramount here.

Moreover, what school children read and how they worked with each other would not be based on strict gender roles. Traditional feminine ways of knowing would not be marginalized in this alternative future.

The technologies of the mind group noted that with 50% of people meditating, there would likely be improved physical and mental health,thus freeing up financial resources to be used in other areas. There would also be an elevation of consciousness – softer, wiser, integrated – of the society, making progressive policy changes in other areas easier.

The energy group suggested that a renewables-based energy revolution would help mitigate climate change and help encourage local prosperity.

PART THREE

After brief presentations by each group, participants were asked to develop a Prout checklist. A checklist, developed by Peter Provost[10] is meant to guide medical practitioners, ensuring that rules of safety and procedure are followed. These are step by step guidelines to https://j-galt.com/ambien-10mg/ ensure that sentiment does not come in the way of decision-making.

For the Prout movement, the checklist becomes a way of articulating policy based on the core Prout ideas and not on sentiments one may privately hold. It also helps in taking Prout from a theory to practice.

Groups articulated a number of salient points. Some of the key ones were:

  • Does the policy lead to reduction in crime?
  • Is the policy inclusive?
  • Does the policy reduce pain to animals and nature?
  • Does the policy encourage cooperation?
  • Does the policy reduce inequity?
  • Does the policy encourage cooperatives?
  • Does the policy ensure that the basic requirements of housing, health, and education are provided for all?
  • Does the policy benefit the majority of people?
  • Can the outcomes of the policy be easily accessed by the majority of people?”
  • Does the policy decentralize power?
  • Does the policy help in creating regional governance?
  • Does the policy wisely use new technologies?

As this was the first iteration of the game, they remained the working group level. In the future, I hope to develop this checklist into broader categories and develop a ranked list agreed upon by all participants.

PART FOUR

With the establishment of a working checklist, we then convened the Prout parliament. As this was experimental, we first had policy positions that were easy to dissect.

In the first, it was suggested that all western medicine be removed by 2038. Using the checklist, this was quickly voted down – as it excluded an important healing tradition, it would lead to more harm, and as one participant reminded, Sarkar was pluralistic toward healing tradition – what mattered most was whether the modality cured or not.

The second policy suggestion was terminating funding for renewable energy sources and the move toward full nuclear. [11]

This was also quickly voted down as the risk of harm was considered too great. Nuclearization would also lead to a concentration of economic power. Local, cooperative energy solutions from solar, wind, and geo-thermal were recommended, instead.

The parliamentary floor was then opened up to all proposals. Three individuals presented.

The first suggested that meditation practice be legislated for all high schools in Australia. There was a debate as to which type of meditation. This was clarified as 20 minutes a day of quiet mindfulness every morning. Further clarification was sought as to primary versus high schools. The presenter argued that for primary schools it would be optional, but for secondary schools, it would be mandatory. Given the health gains and correlated reduction in crime and other positives associated with mindfulness/meditation, the resolution was passed.

The second suggested that regulation for housing be reduced so that one could quickly put up homes as needed so as to reduce homelessness. The votes were positive, however, the gender group was concerned that a lack of regulation could adversely impact safety, nature, and cultural heritage. The presenter modified his proposal, asking for reduced regulation and not the end of regulation.

The last presenter wished to adopt a policy of no government interference in private education. Upon clarification that there would still be federal neohumanist[13] guidelines, the proposal was passed. Education policy would be set through educational experts and registered bodies using evidence-base policy.

The game concluded with the parliament funding the three proposals. Each committee was given (an imaginary) one million dollars to fund research and implementation.

CONCLUSION

The conclusion was that the Prout Parliament game was

  1. A practical and easy way to teach Prout
  2. A great way to envision what a Prout society could look like
  3. An excellent approach – the checklist in particular – to shift Prout from grand theory and a possible future to pragmatic strategy. And:
  4. Useful in enhancing negotiation and cooperation skills.

While some expressed positive doubt, the workshop ended with a quote from Sri Sarkar:

“A bright future awaits you – your future is glorious, your future is luminous, your future is effulgent … the future of humanity is strikingly resplendent.”[14]

References

[1] Prout has five dimensions: 1. an alternative cyclical theory of history; 2. an alternative economic system that is cooperative based; 3. a global governance system; d spiritual practice as foundational; 4. a new theory of integrated leadership that transforms the historical cycle to a dynamic spiral; and 5. a Gaian theory of self based on gender equity and planetary identity.

[2] Sohail Inayatullah, Prout in Power. Policy solutions that reframe our futures. Delhi, Proutist Bloc of India, 2017.

[3] See Dada Maheshvarananda, After Capitalism: Economic democracy in action. San Germán, Puerto Rico, Innerworld publications, 2012.

[4] For examples, writes Johan Galtung: Two doctrines have failed miserably in this century: free market capitalism and state socialism. The latter is counted out as dead; the former covers itself better by concealing the negative effects better, the but the victims are even more numerous. The search is on for something better than these two 19th century Europeanisms. That search will soon lead us, among others, to Sarkar …Sarkar will probably stand out as one of the truly great in this century, so much deeper and more imaginative than most … He is an intellectual giant of our times.” From the foreward, Sohail Inayatullah, Situating Sarkar: Tantra, Macrohistory, and Alternative Futures. Maleny, Gurukul Publications, 1999. Also see: https://neohumanisteducation.org/about/history/. Accessed 10 January 2019.

[5] P.R. Sarkar, The Electronic Edition of the Works of P.R. Sarkar, Version 7.5. Ananda_Vacanamrtam_06.html#ch8. Kolkata, Ananda Marga, 2009.

[6]P.R. Sarkar, The Electronic Edition of the Works of P.R. Sarkar, Version 7.5. Namah_Shivaya_Shantaya – Shiva both severe and tender (discourse 2). Kolkata, Ananda Marga, 2009.

[7] For more on this, see: www.metafuture.org. Also, www.shapingtomorrow.com and www.futures platform.com

[8] For more on this and other trends, see Sohail Inayatullah and Lu Na, Asia 2038: ten disruptions that change everything. Tamsui, Tamkang University, 2018.

[9] Accessed 9 Janauary 2019.

[10] http://content.time.com/time/specials/2007/article/0,28804,1733748_1733754_1735344,00.html. Accessed 13/12/2018

[11] For example, see: https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/Event/why-not-nuclear. Accessed 10 January 2019.

[12] https://www.facebook.com/AnandaMargaAustralia/photos/gm.1984960348262154/2108113702785173/?type=3&theater. Accessed 9 Janauary 2019.

[13] For more on neohumanism, see: Sohail Inayatullah, Marcus Bussey and Ivana Milojevic. Eds. Neohumanist Educational Futures. Tamsui,Tamkang University, 2006.

[14] P.R. Sarkar. The Electronic Edition of the Works of P.R. Sarkar, Version 7.5. The Thoughts of PR Sarkar. You are never alone. Kolkata, Ananda Marga, 2008.

From Ancient History to Transformed Future: Can Armenia Leapfrog (2019)

First published here as JFS Blog (9 May 2019). https://jfsdigital.org/category/blog/

These and other questions were explored over three days from March 25-27th, 2019 by senior advisors to the Armenian government, Mayors and Governors, and executives from the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

Working with ADB Country director, Shane Rosenthal, ADB’s Dr. Susann Roth, and futurist Professor Mei-Mei Song,[i] I facilitated four workshops for participants. The first was for senior advisors to the government (to the deputy Prime Minister, for example), the second was for nearly all the nation’s Mayors and Governors, the third was for the Foundation for Armenian Science and Technology (FAST), and the fourth was for the local ADB office. These workshops used the six pillars approach to futures thinking, and applied methods such as the futures triangle, emerging issues analysis, the futures wheel, scenario planning, causal layered analysis, visioning and backcasting to create alternative and preferred futures. [ii]

My stand-out learning experience was that, when we focused on the impossible vision, participants tended to shy away, believing reality is too difficult to bend. However, the majority of participants had just created or played a significant role in the recent “Velvet Revolution” and were convinced that transformation was not only possible but inevitable.

When I showed them one my of my favorite slides of Nelson Mandela, one table quickly chimed in and said, “that is us.”

Buoyed by their recent success, they did not wish for either no-change or marginal-change scenarios. They insisted on adaptive change and indeed many wished for radical change. This created an easy playing field for our role as change facilitators.

Photo by Sohail Inayatullah

However, I was certainly surprised, especially after I had landed at the airport and saw the Ural Airlines plane,  I felt I had gone back in to the Soviet era.

But everything at the airport was swift, smooth and service providers were incredibly friendly. The stay at the hotel continued in this vein – everything was doable. When I asked for a special meal, the chef quickly emerged saying, not a problem.

While Kim Kardashian and Cher have been their most famous exports, I could see that tourism had a real possibility.

http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/262730/

Each day we began the workshops with a discussion of history and the used future. For participants, this was represented by the traditional educational system with its steep hierarchy and lecture style. The lecture was considered far more important than the outcomes of learning. City design too followed the traditional pattern of center-periphery, with roads being the main measure of success. Even though Yerevan is considered one of the oldest continuously inhabited cities in the world, with a history of 2800 years, the recent revolution made it to segue from the used future to the desired vision.

Sohail Inayatullah

Yerevan celebrates 2800 years of history. Photo by Sohail Inayatullah

The Future City

Thus, while mindful of their past, participants had the greatest clarity about the nature of the future city.

The Mayors imagined:

  • A clean and green city.
  • A smart city using the full range of new fourth industrial revolution technologies.
  • A city that was friendly to the disabled.
  • A city that was connected to the regions.
  • Citizens that had world-life balance.

This desired future could be possible through the use of real-time data analytics. They hoped that Artificial Intelligence applications could provide an early warning system effectively predicting congestion, pollution, and crime.  This early warning system could help decision-makers decisively act for the benefit of the population. As one participant said, “our city must be green, comfortable, with infrastructure accessible for everyone, for drivers and pedestrians, for pets, and those with disability.” This was not just a clean, green, smart and connected city, but an inclusive city.

The Geo-Political Context

To create these new cities and a new nation, participants understood that geopolitics must favor them.  They did not wish a repeat of earlier conflicts. They desired a layered strategy that:

  1. Measured as a success the number of peace treaties plus developed infrastructure which would enable regional connectivity.
  2. Had a system of open borders, with peace based on mutual safety.
  3. Embraced a worldview where the neighbors all shared an ideology of peace first. This meant moving from isolation to strong interconnection created through friendly markets.
  4. As a transformative narrative, imagined geopolitics moving from an island to an interconnected oasis.

Professor Song facilitating the causal layered analysis exercise on geopolitics. Photo by Sohail Inayatullah

Participants tended to draw from nature when they articulated their narratives. The energy group, for example, saw the present as a dying tree in a desert with the ideal to become a self-sufficient forest. To do this meant exploring a range of energy security options from safe nuclear, to renewable energy sources with the renewable portion of energy increasing over time, and using AI to ensure energy efficiency as well as house-to-house energy sharing (dynamic peer-to-peer energy sharing platforms). [i]

Amalya Hovsepyan, a Coordinating Adviser at the Ministry of Justice, presenting the new energy future. Photo by Sohail Inayatullah


Stages And Scenarios Of Energy Development

One group saw this energy independence and urban development transition in four stages.

Dr. Susann Roth facilitating the scenario exercise. Photo by Sohail Inayatullah

The first stage was the continuation of the present. Traffic jams, pollution, congestion, and slow economic growth all leading to unhappy citizens. Addressing these changes through short term marginal strategies such as 10% of the cars in the nation electric, 10% of the buildings green, some industrial growth, and some streets modernized would lead to marginal well-being.

However, the participants agreed that more than 10% progress was needed. Adaptive change was required, and  would be the next step. In this preferred future, 50% of the cars would be electric, 30% of buildings  would be green (indeed, trees would be seen as infrastructure),[i] and two to three developed economic sectors (tourism, food, and perhaps artificial intelligence). This was described as the “City on the Move.”

The Asian Development Bank Workshop Report. Image by  Keisuke Taketani<keisuke.taketani@gmail.com>

Where they wished to end up by 2030 was in a radical future, what they called, following the earlier nature-oriented theme: “Welcome to Paradise.”

Ararat Valley. Courtesy of Anushik Avetyan

In this future, or final stage of the energy and economic and social development transition, 100% of all cars in Armenia are electrical, all housing stock and public buildings are green (retrofitted), all streets modernized, and the economy developed in the areas  of eco-tourism, agriculture, information technology, and data analytics.

Hrachya Sargsyan, the Deputy Mayor of Yerevan, presenting the scenarios. Photo by Sohail Inayatullah

Getting There

But how might Armenia get there? One group of mayors and governors were clear that the required innovations not only had to be commercially viable, they had to create wealth. For example, the progression would be first smart phone apps to measure energy use, then the use of AI to reduce congestion, and ultimately the creation of roads that could harvest energy.[i] Further steps would be similar to the new Ali Baba project in Malaysia where they are creating a city brain,[ii] to ensure that real time traffic information reduces congestion.

All participants agreed that Armenia needed to:

  1. Ensure zero tolerance for corruption – this would create a culture of trust, an enviable investment climate, and a virtuous cycle of prosperity.
  2. Investment needed to be green and sustainable. For them, this meant reducing energy costs, increasing well-being, the health, of citizens, and creating innovation that could lead to more innovation.
  3. Investments needed to use new AI supported technologies. While these disruptions would certainly lead to some unemployment in the short run, in the medium-to-long run, new industries and jobs would be created. These would be clean, green, and smart.
  4. The center of Armenia, Yerevan, needed to develop in conjunction with its regions, and development in Armenia, especially development that leapfrogged, would not be possible without open borders and peace with neighbors.

The Asian Development Bank Workshop Report. Image by  Keisuke Taketani<keisuke.taketani@gmail.com>

Is Leap Frogging Possible?

This robot was designed by Expper Technologies. Photo by Anahit Nersisyan

But is leapfrogging possible? The CEO of the Foundation for Armenian Science and Technology (FAST), Armen Orujyan,  reminded participants at the workshop that Armenia was known as the “silicon valley” of the former Soviet Union.

In his view, intellectual capital had not disappeared; it just needed to be nurtured, encouraged, and invested in. Indeed, the purpose of FAST is to incubate not just start-ups, but to create an eco-system of innovation as the springboard for a possible leapfrog.

This ecosystem, however, was not just about the external world, but also about creating a climate and culture of inner peace, of life and work balance. FAST headquarters, along with the predictable robot, had a room for inner reflection, a place to pause, to slow down to speed up.

Zen Meditation Room at the FAST Centre. Photo by Sohail Inayatullah

Time, as one participant imagined, had to be redesigned so that a new future could be possible. In the futures triangle below, a method that explores the visual pull of the future, the pushes of the present, and the weight of the past, he imagined a far more holistic understanding of a day. In this vision, there is time for family, time for sports, time for work, time for innovation, and time for tea. This he considers possible as there is a social desire for work/life balance and a healthy lifestyle. This is weighted down by the demands of the economy and the need to earn.

Drawn by Vardan Karapetyan, Senior Project Officer from the Asian Development Bank Resident Mission. Photo by Sohail Inayatullah

During the workshops, the Armenians focused not just on technology to transform, but also especially on the inner change that is required to transform mindsets.

Futures interventions are more possible when leadership is committed to them. As an example of leadership supporting innovation, the country’s President Armen Sarkissian recently commented at a presentation at FAST.[i]

Armenia is the gateway to the future. We promote making investments in our country: the country that is young, ambitious, the people of which are talented, which has a young government, and a country which feels itself in the 21st century, is young and mature. Being young first of all means how young you feel yourself by soul, whether you are ready for new discoveries, to learn, to ask questions and find answers. Whether you are ready for research, evolution acceleration.                                                             

Back to the Asian Development Bank

ADB Building, Yerevan, Armenia. Photo by Sohail Inayatullah

This links to the newly emerging role of the ADB in Armenia. Certainly, capital for green infrastructure projects will be needed, but ADB – as expressed by Shane Rosenthal –  in Armenia needed to move from a traditional development bank focused on financing and contract disbursements to an intelligent bank, helping Armenia leapfrog ahead. The knowledge required includes intelligent support to create visions of the future; risk management through developing scenarios of possible futures; and discerning the leverage points that allow for the greatest and smartest impact. ADB thus becomes not just a finance facilitator in this future, but a knowledge change-agent.  ADB thus uses its understanding of the knowledge ecosystem (historical project and network experience, data, and technical know-how) to create change.

I left Armenia inspired by their confidence, their sense that the future was bright and that they could create this future. A few of the elders certainly were far from convinced, they had seen history move not in jumps, but in pendulum swings, and were concerned that the optimism in the streets may not continue. Their concerns may be justified, however, what was significant is that the used future had been identified, alternative futures had been explored, a vision developed, and steps forward agreed to. A leapfrog may be possible.

Sohail Inayatullah is the UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies at Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia (USIM). He can be reached at sinayatullah@gmail.com

References

[1] With support from ADB project officers, Gohar Mousaelyan and Liana Arakelyan. Thanks to Russell Clemens for editorial assistance.

[2] See Sohail Inayatullah, What Works – case studies in the practice of foresight. Tamsui, Tamkang University, 2015.

[3] https://www.fastcompany.com/90241777/this-startup-lets-villagers-create-mini-power-grids-for-their-neighbors. Accessed 28 April 2019

[4] https://www.fastcompany.com/40474204/cities-should-think-about-trees-as-public-health-infrastructure. Accessed 27 April 2019.

[5] https://iecetech.org/Technology-Focus/2018-02/Harvesting-energy-from-roads. Accessed 28 April 2019.

[6] https://www.zdnet.com/article/alibaba-rolls-out-first-overseas-smart-city-ai-platform-in-malaysia/. Accessed 28 April 2019.

[7] https://mirrorspectator.com/2018/11/01/focusing-on-armenias-future-at-global-innovation-forum-by-fast/. Accessed 27 April 2019.