Futures Thinking and Strategy Development, Mt Eliza/Melbourne.
Futures Thinking and Strategy Development is centred on practical, applied learning. Residential course.
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Tag Archives: foresight methods
Futurist Advocates for ‘Strategic Foresight’ in Corporate Planning (2015)
By: Natalie Greve, Creamer Media Contributing Editor Online
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation chair in futures studies Professor Sohail Inayatullah has touted the adoption of “transformative and strategic foresight” by companies in future scenario planning, telling a workshop that this approach creates flexibility in decision-making by moving from a focus on one inevitable future to an analysis of several alternative ones.
This methodology was used by organisations such as the World Economic Forum, which used it to reframe challenges, analyse assumptions about existing organisational challenges and clarify future options for strategic decision-making.
The foresight approach, Inayatullah explained, encouraged a shift from focusing on the day-to-day operational considerations of management to the longer-term transformative dimensions of leadership, introducing broader systematic and transdisciplinarian perspectives and solutions.
“This approach allows [companies] to anticipate emerging issues and weak signals that may derail strategic plans and policies. Through environmental scanning, strategic foresight intends to solve tomorrow’s problems today and discover opportunities early on,” the futurist outlined.
Importantly, the foresight approach changed the temporal horizon of planning from the short term to the medium and long term, while reducing risk by emphasising the positions of multiple stakeholders.
“Often, strategies fail not because of an inaccurate assessment of alternative futures, but as a result of a lack of understanding of deep culture”.
“Blind spots – which are always built into the knowledge framework of each person and organisation – are addressed by including difference. This makes implementation far easier,” said Inayatullah.
Future-based studies and transformative insight in organisations were based on six pillars, the first of which involved the mapping of the past, present and future.
Mapping sought to identify the historical factors and patterns that had created the present, which was itself mapped through environmental scans.
The second pillar saw the anticipation of the future through the identification of emerging issues, while the third pillar sought to “time the future” through an analysis of previous patterns in history.
Inayatullah’s fourth pillar was based on “deepening” the future through an analysis of the deeper myths and world views present beneath the data of the “official” future using causal layered analysis.
A series of alternative possible futures were then created through scenario-planning and an analysis of the critical uncertainties driving the future as well as the archetypes of personal and societal change.
Lastly, through the application of backcasting, visioning and action learning, the future was then “transformed” through the articulation of a preferred future and the development of critical pathways.
Edited by: Chanel de Bruyn Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor Online
University of Stellenbosch Workshop 2015
The Institute for Futures Research (IFR) at the University of Stellenbosch Business School (USB) is delighted to invite you to a Masterclass by renowned futurist Prof Sohail Inayatullah.
Since the establishment of IFR 41 years ago, we have hosted some of the world’s leading futurists, and we are proud to present this dynamic and interactive event with one of the leading figures in futures research today.
Prof Inayatullah gained global prominence through Causal Layered Analysis, a transformative theory of knowledge that has been developed over the past 25 years and which is used throughout the world in a number of settings.
Book now. We look forward to seeing you there.
Date: Saturday, 28 November 2015.
Venue: Lecture Hall 2058, USB main building, Bellville Park Campus, Tyger Valley business district, northern Cape Town
The Institute for Futures Research, University of Stellenbosch Business School, Cape Town, South Africa
Featured Book: What Works (2015)
What Works: Case Studies in the Practice of Foresight
By Sohail Inayatullah
Tamkang University Press, Tamsui, Taiwan, 2015
What Works furthers the practice of foresight in organizations, institutions, cities and nations. Divided into three parts, What Works moves from theorizing the future to case studies of foresight in action and concludes with innovative futures methods.
The first part introduces futures studies — its principles, theories and methods. The second and main part of the book presents case studies. Chapters include:
- Deep inclusion in a digital era: democratic governance Asia 2030
- Leap-frogging the West: e-health futures in Bangladesh
- From the lecturer to the murabbi: the alternative futures of higher education in Malaysia
- Leveraging development: the alternative scenarios for BRAC University
- Transforming agriculture: from salinity research to greening the desert
- Cities as agents of change: emerging issues and case studies
- Going beyond the thin blue line: the futures of international policing
- From the collection to co-creation: the futures of libraries and librarians
- From crops to care: the changing nature of health care in rural Australia
The third and final section focuses on methodological innovation. These chapters explore the implications of forecasting the long-term future, the use of the Sarkar game in foresight workshops, and how causal layered analysis has been used to transform personal and institutional stories. The conclusion evaluates the use of futures thinking for strategy development.
